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Unraveling the complexity of human behavior and urbanization on community vulnerability to floods.

ABSTRACT: Floods are among the costliest natural hazards and their consequences are expected to increase further in the future due to urbanization in flood-prone areas. It is essential that policymakers understand the factors governing the dynamics of urbanization to adopt proper disaster risk reduction techniques. Peoples' relocation preferences and their perception of flood risk (collectively called human behavior) are among the most important factors that influence urbanization in flood-prone areas. Current studies focusing on flood risk assessment do not consider the effect of human behavior on urbanization and how it may change the nature of the risk. Moreover, flood mitigation policies are implemented without considering the role of human behavior and how the community will cope with measures such as buyout, land acquisition, and relocation that are often adopted to minimize development in flood-prone regions. Therefore, such policies may either be resisted by the community or result in severe socioeconomic consequences. In this study, we present a new Agent-Based Model (ABM) to investigate the complex interaction between human behavior and urbanization and its role in creating future communities vulnerable to flood events. We identify critical factors in the decisions of households to locate or relocate and adopt policies compatible with human behavior. The results show that when people are informed about the flood risk and proper incentives are provided, the demand for housing within 500-year floodplain may be reduced as much as 15% by 2040 for the case study considered. On the contrary, if people are not informed of the risk, 29% of the housing choices will reside in floodplains. The analyses also demonstrate that neighborhood quality-influenced by accessibility to highways, education facilities, the city center, water bodies, and green spaces, respectively-is the most influential factor in peoples' decisions on where to locate. These results provide new insights that may be used to assist city planners and stakeholders in examining tradeoffs between costs and benefits of future land development in achieving sustainable and resilient cities.

SUBMITTER: Hemmati M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8505605 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Little is known about children's experiences and involvement in disaster preparation and recovery, in particular in low- and middle-income countries. Eliciting community members' perspectives on the 2015 floods in Tamil Nadu, India, may generate useful insights for improving services in low-resource settings. This qualitative study aimed to understand how children in Chennai experienced the floods, as reported by the adults in their community, and to explore children's involvement in disaster preparedness, response and recovery efforts as reported from the adults' perspective. We conducted in-depth, semi-structured interviews (N = 48) with family members (n = 36), and with staff of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) (n = 12) who actively participated in relief and recovery efforts. We also conducted two focus group discussions (n = 14) with NGO staff about a year after the 2015 South Indian floods in Chennai, India. Six broad themes regarding children's experiences and behaviours during and after the floods emerged: (1) unexpectedness of the floods; (2) children's safety - barriers and facilitators; (3) parents' reactions - helplessness, fear and pride; (4) children's reactions - helping hands, fun and fear; (5) barriers to a return to 'normal'; and (6) a determination to be prepared for next time. Children and families were deeply impacted by the floods, in part owing to a lack of preparation, as perceived by the study participants. It was also clear from the data analysis that caste and socioeconomic status played an important role in the families' ability to evacuate safely. Helplessness on the part of the parents was apparent, as was children's concern over recurrence of the flood. Similarly, gender appeared to affect child safety, recovery and other outcomes such as continued education. Priorities for future efforts involve the development and evaluation of child-centred education about flood awareness, child participation and safety.

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Unraveling the complexity of human behavior and urbanization on community vulnerability to floods.

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