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Estimated pulse wave velocity improves risk stratification for all-cause mortality in patients with COVID-19.

ABSTRACT: Accurate risk stratification in COVID-19 patients consists a major clinical need to guide therapeutic strategies. We sought to evaluate the prognostic role of estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV), a marker of arterial stiffness which reflects overall arterial integrity and aging, in risk stratification of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. This retrospective, longitudinal cohort study, analyzed a total population of 1671 subjects consisting of 737 hospitalized COVID-19 patients consecutively recruited from two tertiary centers (Newcastle cohort: n = 471 and Pisa cohort: n = 266) and a non-COVID control cohort (n = 934). Arterial stiffness was calculated using validated formulae for ePWV. ePWV progressively increased across the control group, COVID-19 survivors and deceased patients (adjusted mean increase per group 1.89 m/s, P < 0.001). Using a machine learning approach, ePWV provided incremental prognostic value and improved reclassification for mortality over the core model including age, sex and comorbidities [AUC (core model + ePWV vs. core model) = 0.864 vs. 0.755]. ePWV provided similar prognostic value when pulse pressure or hs-Troponin were added to the core model or over its components including age and mean blood pressure (p < 0.05 for all). The optimal prognostic ePWV value was 13.0 m/s. ePWV conferred additive discrimination (AUC: 0.817 versus 0.779, P < 0.001) and reclassification value (NRI = 0.381, P < 0.001) over the 4C Mortality score, a validated score for predicting mortality in COVID-19 and the Charlson comorbidity index. We suggest that calculation of ePWV, a readily applicable estimation of arterial stiffness, may serve as an additional clinical tool to refine risk stratification of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 beyond established risk factors and scores.

SUBMITTER: Stamatelopoulos K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8511157 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundArterial stiffness has been shown to be an independent risk factor for adverse events and all-cause mortality in patients. Although PWV is the gold standard for pulse wave velocity, its application in clinical practice is limited by the high cost and complexity. ePwv is a new, simple, non-invasive indicator of arterial stiffness. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between ePwv and all-cause mortality in patients with coronary artery disease.MethodsThis is a cohort study, selected from NHANES 2005 to 2008, 402 patients with coronary artery disease were included. The ePWV was divided into two groups and KM survival curves were used to calculate cumulative mortality in patients with coronary artery disease. Restricted cubic spline were used to represent the relationship between ePWV and all-cause mortality in patients with coronary artery disease. Cox regression was used to diagnose the relationship between ePwv and all-cause mortality.ResultsThe mean age of the study subjects was 68.5 ± 11.8 years, of which 282 (70.1%) were men and 120 (29.9%) were women. During 180 months of follow-up, 160 all-cause mortality occurred. KM survival curves indicated that all-cause mortality increased with increasing ePWV. The relationship between ePWV and all-cause mortality in patients with coronary artery disease was verified by cox models. Patients in higher ePWV tertile tended to have higher all-cause mortality. After complete multivariate adjustment, an increase in ePWV was positively associated with all-cause mortality (HR = 1.180, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.056-1.320). The multivariate-adjusted HR and 95% CI for the highest ePWV tertile was 1.582 (95% CI: 0.968-2.587) compared to the lowest tertile. In addition, the association between ePWV and mortality was visualized employing restricted spline curves, in which we found curves indicating a possible threshold for the effect of ePWV on all-cause mortality, with HR less than 1 when ePWV was less than 11.15 m/s; thereafter, there was a tendency for HR to increase with enhanced ePWV. Subgroup analysis showed that the correlation between ePWV and mortality persisted in population subgroups.ConclusionOur findings suggest that higher ePWV is associated with increased all-cause mortality in patients with coronary artery disease, particularly when ePWV exceeds 11.15 m/s.

Project description:ImportanceAortic stiffness, as assessed by carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity, is an independent predictor of future events in individuals with hypertension. Recent data suggest a predictive role of estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV) calculated by previously published equations using age and blood pressure in future events in individuals with hypertension.ObjectiveTo investigate whether ePWV and its response to treatment predict survival in the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT).Design, setting, and participantsThis exploratory, hypothesis-generating, post hoc secondary analysis conducted from October 1, 2018, to August 31, 2019, examined data from 9361 participants in SPRINT and calculated ePWV at baseline and at 12 months. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs of ePWV per 1 SD were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models. A total of 8450 patients were assigned to 4 groups according to their treatment allocation and their response in ePWV after 12 months.InterventionsParticipants were assigned a systolic blood pressure target of less than 120 mm Hg (intensive treatment) or less than 140 mm Hg (standard treatment).Main outcomes and measuresThe primary composite cardiovascular outcome was myocardial infarction, other acute coronary syndromes, stroke, heart failure, or death from cardiovascular causes.ResultsIn the SPRINT population (3332 women and 6029 men; mean [SD] age, 67.9 [9.4] years), ePWV predicted the primary outcome (HR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.17-1.43]; P?<?.001) and all-cause death (HR, 1.65 [95% CI, 1.46-1.86]; P?<?.001) independent of the Framingham Risk Score. Estimated pulse wave velocity improved the C statistic model for the primary outcome from 0.676 (95% CI, 0.65-0.70) to 0.683 (95% CI, 0.66-0.71; P?=?.049) and improved the C statistic model for all-cause death from 0.67 (95% CI, 0.64-0.69) to 0.69 (95% CI, 0.66-0.72; P?=?.03). Net reclassification index indicated improvement in risk discrimination for survival compared with the Framingham Risk Score (categorical net reclassification index?=?0.111; P?<?.001). Regarding response to treatment, intensive treatment was superior to standard treatment only when it was accompanied with a response in ePWV at the first year, while, within the standard treatment group, individuals whose ePWV responded to antihypertensive treatment had improved all-cause mortality, with a 42% lower risk of death compared with nonresponders (HR, 0.58 [95% CI, 0.36-0.94]; P?=?.03); effects were independent of changes in systolic blood pressure.Conclusions and relevanceThese results suggest that, in the SPRINT trial, ePWV predicted outcomes independent of the Framingham Risk Score, indicating an incremental role of markers of aortic stiffness on cardiovascular risk. Better survival of individuals whose ePWV responded to antihypertensive treatment independently of systolic blood pressure reduction suggests a role of markers of aortic stiffness as effective treatment targets in individuals with hypertension.

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Estimated pulse wave velocity improves risk stratification for all-cause mortality in patients with COVID-19.

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