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Analysis of long-term strategies of riparian countries in transboundary river basins.

ABSTRACT: Transboundary river basins give rise to complex water-sharing decision making that can be analyzed as a game in the sense of dynamic game theory, as done in this work. The sharing of transboundary water resources depends on the long-term shifting interactions between upstream and downstream countries, which has received limited research attention in the past. The water-sharing strategy of a riparian country depends on the strategies of other countries over time. This paper presents an evolutionary game method to analyze the long-term water-sharing strategies of countries encompassing transboundary river basins over time. The method analyzes the evolutionary strategies of riparian countries and investigates evolutionary stable strategies (ESSs) considering the payoff matrix. The evolutionary game method is applied to a river basin shared by three countries assuming two types of benefits and one type of cost to countries as decision variables of a game that reflects water use, economic and political gains, and socio-economic losses of countries. Numerical examples illustrate the strategies resulting from the evolutionary game processes and the role of several parameters on the interaction between riparian countries. The countries' strategies are analyzed for several levels of benefits and costs, and the convergence of the strategies to a stable point is assessed. Results demonstrate the role that the upstream country's potential benefits and the cost of conflict (i.e., non-cooperation) to other countries has on reaching a stable point in the game. This work's results show the potential benefit to the upstream country under cooperative strategy must exceed its benefits from water use under non-cooperative strategy to gain the full stable cooperation of downstream countries. This work provides a method to resolve water-sharing strategies by countries sharing transboundary river basins and to evaluate the implications of cooperation or non-cooperation.

SUBMITTER: Mirzaei-Nodoushan F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8511225 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Water is unevenly distributed globally. This uneven distribution is the reason behind the differences among geographical areas in terms of their water footprint of consumption and production. This gives the global trade of goods a unique feature. This characteristic of the water footprint might be used to address water scarcity and conflicts because water availability also has the same trend. Transboundary river basins are freshwater resources with a high probability of water scarcity and conflict because the water is claimed by multiple sovereign countries. In order to design sharing mechanisms for transboundary river basins that incorporate virtual water concept, it is key to identify the virtual water balance of country-basin units. A study addressing this research gap is not yet available. This article identified and discussed net virtual water importer and exporter sub-basins of transboundary rivers at a country-basin mesh based spatial resolution. The results of our study show that out of the 565 country-basin units surveyed in this article 391, 369, and 461 are net gray, green, and blue virtual water importers respectively. These sub-basins covers 58.37%, 47.52% and 57.52% of the total area covered by transboundary river basins and includes 0.65, 1.9, and around 2 billion people, respectively. The results depict that not only the water endowment of sub-basins is a determining factor for their water footprint of consumption and production, but also their social, economic, and demographic profiles. Furthermore, the water footprint of consumption and production within most of the country-basin units have a global feature. Hence, sustainable water management schemes within border-crossing basins should take into account not only the local but also the global water footprints of consumption and production. This can offer more options for sharing transboundary river basins water capital, thereby minimizing the probability of water scarcity and water conflicts.

Project description:The United States Environmental Protection Agency and the Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians (HBMI) built a stream temperature spatial statistical network (SSN) model for the Meduxnekeag Watershed. The headwaters of the Meduxnekeag Watershed are in Maine, United States of America and the outlet is in New Brunswick, Canada, creating an additional challenge because many datasets are constrained to political boundaries. The release of the High-Resolution National Hydrology Dataset Plus included transboundary watersheds and enabled creation of fine resolution (1:24,000) SSN temperature models consistent with management scales for riparian buffers. SSN models were developed for July, August, and September median stream temperatures and the growing season maximum (GSM). Fitted SSN models had relatively high R2 values (0.88-0.96) and all final models included significant parameters for shade-attenuated solar radiation, reference flow, air temperature, and bankfull depth or width. Fitted models predicted stream temperatures during a dry (2010) and wet (2011) year. Monthly models predicted the fewest cold water (<19.0 °C) reaches in July with 28% in the dry and 68% in the wet year. September had >99% cold water reaches, and August results were intermediate between July and September. GSM predictions found 81% of stream reaches could not support salmonid survival (>27.0 °C) in the dry year and 59% of the reaches were warmwater (22.5-27.0 °C) in the wet year. The model was used to predict stream temperatures following restoration scenarios of a forested 30-m or 90-m buffer of stream segments bordered by agricultural or developed land. The restoration scenarios expanded cold water habitat based on monthly median temperatures and decreased the habitat area with GSM above survival thresholds, with little difference in effectiveness of the two buffer widths. These results will guide riparian restoration projects by the HBMI to expand habitat for cold water fishes.

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Analysis of long-term strategies of riparian countries in transboundary river basins.

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