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A novel cardiovascular magnetic resonance risk score for predicting mortality following surgical aortic valve replacement.

ABSTRACT: The increasing prevalence of patients with aortic stenosis worldwide highlights a clinical need for improved and accurate prediction of clinical outcomes following surgery. We investigated patient demographic and cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) characteristics to formulate a dedicated risk score estimating long-term survival following surgery. We recruited consecutive patients undergoing CMR with gadolinium administration prior to surgical aortic valve replacement from 2003 to 2016 in two UK centres. The outcome was overall mortality. A total of 250 patients were included (68 ± 12 years, male 185 (60%), with pre-operative mean aortic valve area 0.93 ± 0.32cm², LVEF 62 ± 17%) and followed for 6.0 ± 3.3 years. Sixty-one deaths occurred, with 10-year mortality of 23.6%. Multivariable analysis showed that increasing age (HR 1.04, P = 0.005), use of antiplatelet therapy (HR 0.54, P = 0.027), presence of infarction or midwall late gadolinium enhancement (HR 1.52 and HR 2.14 respectively, combined P = 0.12), higher indexed left ventricular stroke volume (HR 0.98, P = 0.043) and higher left atrial ejection fraction (HR 0.98, P = 0.083) associated with mortality and developed a risk score with good discrimination. This is the first dedicated risk prediction score for patients with aortic stenosis undergoing surgical aortic valve replacement providing an individualised estimate for overall mortality. This model can help clinicians individualising medical and surgical care.Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00930735 and ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01755936.

SUBMITTER: Vassiliou VS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8511276 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ImportanceThe Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services national coverage determination for transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) includes volume requirements for surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) for hospitals seeking to initiate or continue TAVR programs. Evidence regarding the association between SAVR volume and TAVR outcomes is limited.ObjectiveTo examine the association of hospital SAVR and combined SAVR and TAVR volumes with patient outcomes of TAVR procedures performed within 1 year, 2 years, and for the entire period after initiation of TAVR programs.Design, setting, and participantsThis observational cohort study included 60 538 TAVR procedures performed in 438 hospitals between October 1, 2011, and December 31, 2015, among Medicare beneficiaries.Main outcomes and measuresThe associations between SAVR volume, SAVR and TAVR volumes, and risks of death, death or stroke, and readmissions within 30 days were determined using a hierarchical logistic regression model adjusting for patient and hospital characteristics. The association between SAVR and SAVR and TAVR volumes and 1-year and 2-year mortality after TAVR procedures was determined using a multivariable proportional hazard model with a robust variance estimator. The associations for procedures performed within 1 year, 2 years, and for the entire period after initiation of TAVR programs were examined.ResultsAmong the 60 538 patients, 29 173 were women and 31 365 were men, with a mean (SD) age of 82.3 (8.0) years. Hospitals with high SAVR volume (mean annual volume, ≥97 per year) were more likely to adopt TAVR early and had a higher growth in TAVR volumes over time (median TAVR volume by hospitals with high SAVR volume and low SAVR volume: year 1, 32 vs 19; year 2, 48 vs 28; year 3, 82 vs 38; year 4, 118 vs 54; P < .001). In adjusted analysis, high hospital SAVR volume alone was not associated with better patient outcomes after TAVR. When hospital TAVR and SAVR volumes were jointly analyzed, patients treated in hospitals with high TAVR volume had lower 30-day mortality after TAVR (high TAVR and low SAVR vs low TAVR and low SAVR: odds ratio, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.72-0.99; high TAVR and high SAVR vs low TAVR and high SAVR: odds ratio, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.69-0.95), the effect of which was more pronounced when hospitals also had high SAVR volume. Patients treated in hospitals with high SAVR volume and high TAVR volume had the lowest 30-day mortality (vs hospitals with low SAVR volume and TAVR volume: odds ratio, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.66-0.89).Conclusions and relevanceHospitals with high SAVR volume are most likely to be fast adopters of TAVR. Hospital SAVR volume alone is not associated with better TAVR outcomes. Accumulating high volumes of TAVR is associated with lower mortality after TAVR, particularly when hospitals have high SAVR volumes. Hospitals with high caseloads of both SAVR and TAVR are likely to achieve the best outcomes.

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A novel cardiovascular magnetic resonance risk score for predicting mortality following surgical aortic valve replacement.

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