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Future heat adaptation and exposure among urban populations and why a prospering economy alone won't save us.

ABSTRACT: When inferring on the magnitude of future heat-related mortality due to climate change, human adaptation to heat should be accounted for. We model long-term changes in minimum mortality temperatures (MMT), a well-established metric denoting the lowest risk of heat-related mortality, as a function of climate change and socio-economic progress across 3820 cities. Depending on the combination of climate trajectories and socio-economic pathways evaluated, by 2100 the risk to human health is expected to decline in 60% to 80% of the cities against contemporary conditions. This is caused by an average global increase in MMTs driven by long-term human acclimatisation to future climatic conditions and economic development of countries. While our adaptation model suggests that negative effects on health from global warming can broadly be kept in check, the trade-offs are highly contingent to the scenario path and location-specific. For high-forcing climate scenarios (e.g. RCP8.5) the maintenance of uninterrupted high economic growth by 2100 is a hard requirement to increase MMTs and level-off the negative health effects from additional scenario-driven heat exposure. Choosing a 2 °C-compatible climate trajectory alleviates the dependence on fast growth, leaving room for a sustainable economy, and leads to higher reductions of mortality risk.

SUBMITTER: Krummenauer L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8514539 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Previous studies have shown, in the United States (U.S.), that communities of color are exposed to significantly higher temperatures in urban environments than complementary White populations. Studies highlighting this disparity have generally been cross-sectional and are therefore "snapshots" in time. Using surface urban heat island (SUHI) intensity data, U.S. Census 2020 population counts, and a measure of residential segregation, this study performs a comparative analysis between census tracts identified as prevalent for White, Black, Hispanic and Asian populations and their thermal exposure from 2003 to 2018. The analysis concentrates on the top 200 most populous U.S. cities. SUHI intensity is shown to be increasing on average through time for the examined tracts. However, based on raw observations the increase is only statistically significant for White and Black prevalent census tracts. There is a 1.25 K to ~2.00 K higher degree of thermal exposure on average for communities of color relative to White prevalent areas. When examined on an inter-city basis, White and Black prevalent tracts had the largest disparity, as measured by SUHI intensity, in New Orleans, LA, by <6.00 K. Hispanic (>7.00 K) and Asian (<6.75 K) prevalent tracts were greatest in intensity in San Jose, CA. To further explore temporal patterns, two models were developed using a Bayesian hierarchical spatial temporal framework. One models the effect of varying the percentages of each population group relative to SUHI intensity within all examined tracts. Increases in percentages of Black, Hispanic, and Asian populations contributed to statistically significant increases in SUHI intensity. White increases in population percentage witnessed a lowering of SUHI intensity. Throughout all modeled tracts, there is a statistically significant 0.01 K per year average increase in SUHI intensity. A second model tests the effect of residential segregation on thermal inequity across all examined cities. Residential segregation, indeed, has a statistically significant positive association with SUHI intensity based on this portion of the analysis. Similarly, there is a statistically significant 0.01 K increase in average SUHI intensity per year for all cities. Results from this study can be used to guide and prioritize intervention strategies and further urgency related to social, climatic, and environmental justice concerns.

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Future heat adaptation and exposure among urban populations and why a prospering economy alone won't save us.

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