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Epidemiological and economic impact of COVID-19 in the US

ABSTRACT: This research measures the epidemiological and economic impact of COVID-19 spread in the US under different mitigation scenarios, comprising of non-pharmaceutical interventions. A detailed disease model of COVID-19 is combined with a model of the US economy to estimate the direct impact of labor supply shock to each sector arising from morbidity, mortality, and lockdown, as well as the indirect impact caused by the interdependencies between sectors. During a lockdown, estimates of jobs that are workable from home in each sector are used to modify the shock to labor supply. Results show trade-offs between economic losses, and lives saved and infections averted are non-linear in compliance to social distancing and the duration of the lockdown. Sectors that are worst hit are not the labor-intensive sectors such as the Agriculture sector and the Construction sector, but the ones with high valued jobs such as the Professional Services, even after the teleworkability of jobs is accounted for. Additionally, the findings show that a low compliance to interventions can be overcome by a longer shutdown period and vice versa to arrive at similar epidemiological impact but their net effect on economic loss depends on the interplay between the marginal gains from averting infections and deaths, versus the marginal loss from having healthy workers stay at home during the shutdown.

SUBMITTER: Chen J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8517017 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Prior to vaccination or drug treatment, non-pharmaceutical interventions were almost the only way to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic. After vaccines were developed, effective vaccination strategies became important. The prolonged COVID-19 pandemic has caused enormous economic losses worldwide. As such, it is necessary to estimate the economic effects of control policies, including non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination strategies. We estimated the costs associated with COVID-19 according to different vaccination rollout speeds and social distancing levels and investigated effective control strategies for cost minimization. Age-structured mathematical models were developed and used to study disease transmission epidemiology. Using these models, we estimated the actual costs due to COVID-19, considering costs associated with medical care, lost wages, death, vaccination, and gross domestic product (GDP) losses due to social distancing. The lower the social distancing (SD) level, the more important the vaccination rollout speed. SD level 1 was cost-effective under fast rollout speeds, but SD level 2 was more effective for slow rollout speeds. If the vaccine rollout rate is fast enough, even implementing SD level 1 will be cost effective and can control the number of critically ill patients and deaths. If social distancing is maintained at level 2 at the beginning and then relaxed when sufficient vaccinations have been administered, economic costs can be reduced while maintaining the number of patients with severe symptoms below the intensive care unit (ICU) capacity. Korea has wellequipped medical facilities and infrastructure for rapid vaccination, and the public's desire for vaccination is high. In this case, the speed of vaccine supply is an important factor in controlling the COVID-19 epidemic. If the speed of vaccination is fast, it is possible to maintain a low level of social distancing without a significant increase in the number of deaths and hospitalized patients with severe symptoms, and the corresponding costs can be reduced.

Project description:BackgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused substantial disruptions to orthopaedic and trauma services. The purpose of the present study was to quantify its impact on surgical volume, hospitalizations, clinic appointments, and accident and emergency attendances to guide staffing and resource deployment for the sustenance of emergency services.MethodsData were retrieved from all 43 Hong Kong public hospitals and 122 outpatient clinics from a population of 7.5 million residents. The "COVID-19 cohort" of patients who received treatment from January 25 to March 27, 2020, was compared with the "control cohort" of patients who received treatment during the same time of year over the past 4 years. Primary outcomes consisted of changes in patient diagnoses, number of operations performed, and hospitalizations during the COVID-19 pandemic. Secondary outcomes included differences in patient age and comorbidity, the nature of operations performed, types of anesthesia for orthopaedic procedures, difference in anesthetic times, wait times, and personal protective equipment (PPE) reserves.ResultsA total of 928,278 patient-episodes (32,613 operations, 97,648 hospital admissions, 302,717 accident and emergency attendances, and 495,300 outpatient clinic attendances) were analyzed. Orthopaedic operations were reduced by 44.2%, from a mean (and standard deviation) of 795 ± 115.1 to 443.6 ± 25.8 per week (p < 0.001), with the ratio of emergency to elective operations increasing from 1.27:1 to 3.78:1. Operations for the treatment of upper and lower-limb fractures decreased by 23% (from 98.5 ± 14 to 75.9 ± 15.2 per week; p < 0.001) and 20% (from 210.6 ± 29.5 to 168.4 ± 16.9 per week; p < 0.001), respectively, whereas elective joint replacement and ligamentous reconstruction procedures decreased by 74% to 84% (p < 0.001). Operations for orthopaedic infections such as necrotizing fasciitis and septic arthritis remained similar (p > 0.05). The number of hospitalizations decreased by 41.2% (from 2,365 ± 243 to 1,391 ± 53 per week; p < 0.001), whereas clinical outpatient visits decreased by 29.4% (from 11,693 ± 2,240 to 8,261 ± 1,104 per week; p < 0.001). Patients did not endure longer wait times for emergency operations and accident and emergency consultations (p > 0.05). PPE consumption did not exceed procurement, with net increases in PPE reserves.ConclusionsDemand for orthopaedic care remains, despite weekly reductions of 351 orthopaedic operations, 974 hospital admissions, and 3,432 clinic attendances. Orthopaedic surgeons and health-care professionals should factor this into consideration during staffing and resource deployment.Level of evidencePrognostic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

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Epidemiological and economic impact of COVID-19 in the US

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