Is gastric cancer becoming a rare disease? A global assessment of predicted incidence trends to 2035.
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SUBMITTER: Arnold M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8520492 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Background: The global disease burden of gastric cancer (GC) is still heavy. Understanding the patterns and trends of the global GC burden is important for developing precise prevention strategies. Materials and Methods: The data of GC burden were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study (2019). The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to estimate the temporal trends of the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates (ASIR and ASMR) of global GC by age-specific groups (15-49, 50-69, and ≥70 years), sexes, socio-demographic indexes (SDIs), regions, and countries. Results: In 2019, the ASIR and ASMR of global GC increased with age in both sexes, and reached a peak in the older 70 age group. The ASIR and ASMR in males were higher than those in females. From 1990 to 2019, the global number of GC incident cases increased in both sexes in all age-specific groups; while the ASIR of GC decreased, and the most significant decrease was observed in the 50-69 age group [males: EAPC=-1.34, 95% CI: (-1.49, -1.18); females: EAPC= -2.09, 95% CI: (-2.22, -1.96)]. During the study period, downward trends in ASIR of GC were observed in both sexes in most SDI regions, GBD regions, and countries. Similar trends in ASMR of GC were also observed. Conclusion: The global GC incidence and mortality rates decreased from 1990 to 2019 in both sexes, most GBD regions, and most countries. However, the GC burden was still heavy in some GBD regions and countries in special age-specific groups. It is important to formulate and implement tertiary prevention strategies based on the GC burden of age-specific groups in different regions and countries.
| S-EPMC8517992 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionChina has a low incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM); however, based on the large population, the absolute numbers are high. Our aim was to assess the incidence of childhood T1DM in Beijing during 2011-2020, predicted incidence for 2025-2035, and to determine the incidence of diabetic ketosis or diabetic ketoacidosis (DK/DKA) in this population.MethodsData on patients aged less than 15 years of age with newly diagnosed T1DM between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2020 was obtained from five tertiary hospitals in Beijing and retrospectively analyzed.ResultsIn all, 636 children aged less than 15 years were diagnosed with T1DM during 2011-2020. The incidence of T1DM was 3.11-5.46 per 100,000 per year, with an average increase of 5.10% per year. The age-specific incidence for ages 0-4 years, 5-9 years, and 10-14 years was 2.97, 4.69, and 4.68 per 100,000 per year, respectively. The highest average annual increase (7.07%) in incidence was for the youngest age group. DK or DKA was present at the time of diagnosis of T1DM in 84.6% of patients. The age-specific incidence of T1DM among children aged less than 15 years was predicted to be 7.32, 11.4, and 11.52 per 100,000 in 2035 for ages 0-4 years, 5-9 years, and 10-14 years, respectively.ConclusionsThe was a gentle increase in the incidence of childhood T1DM during 2011-2020 in Beijing. This increase is expected to continue for the next 15 years.
| S-EPMC9879256 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Backgrounds Tuberculosis (TB) remains a serious public health and human development problem, especially in developing countries. Despite the effectiveness of directly observed therapy, short course programs in reducing transmission and progression of TB, poverty reduction and socioeconomic development remain crucial factors in decreasing TB incidence. However, the geographical pathway on the planet is not yet clear. Objectives This study was to reconstruct the geographical evolutionary process of TB in 173 countries and territories from 2010 to 2019 to analyze the socioeconomic determinants that impact the global TB epidemic. In addition, the TB incidence in 2030 was predicted. Methods This study analyses TB incidence data from 173 countries and territories between 2010 and 2019. The Geotree model would be used to reconstruct the geographical evolutionary process of TB, which provides a simplified schema for geo-visualizing the trajectories of TB incidence and their socioeconomic drivers. Additionally, to estimate the future TB incidence in 2030, a multilevel model was utilized in conjunction with the hierarchical nature of the Geotree based on a stratified heterogeneity analysis. Results Global TB incidence was found to be associated with the country type and development stages. Between 2010 and 2019, the average TB incidence rate in 173 countries and territories was -27.48%, with marked spatially stratified heterogeneity by country type and development stage. Low-income and lower-middle-income countries were most vulnerable to TB. Upper-middle-income countries experienced a faster decline in TB incidence than high-income countries, and TB incidence generally decreased as the development stage increased, except for the lower-middle development stage in 2019.The highest average rate of decline in TB incidence was observed in the upper-middle development stage of high-income countries, with a reduction of 45.24%. Meanwhile, 37 high-income countries in the high development stage demonstrated an average rate of change of -13.93%. Socioeconomic determinants, including gross domestic product per capita, urbanization rate, and sociodemographic index, were found to inhibit TB incidence. Based on current trends, the predicted average global TB incidence in 2030 is 91.581 per 100,000 population. Conclusions The trajectories of the global TB incidence have been reconstructed to formulate targeted public health responses. To eliminate TB, countries at similar development stage can draw on the experiences of countries at higher development stages that are tailored to their unique characteristics. By learning from successful TB control strategies, countries can take strategic steps toward eradicating TB and improving public health outcomes. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-023-15553-7.
| S-EPMC10123998 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCancer incidence and mortality projections are important for understanding the evolving landscape for cancer risk factors as well as anticipating future burden on the health service.MethodsWe used an age-period-cohort model with natural cubic splines to estimate cancer cases and deaths from 2015 to 2035 based on 1979-2014 UK data. This was converted to rates using ONS population projections. Modified data sets were generated for breast and prostate cancers.ResultsCancer incidence rates are projected to decrease by 0.03% in males and increase by 0.11% in females yearly between 2015 and 2035; thyroid, liver, oral and kidney cancer are among the fastest accelerating cancers. 243 690 female and 270 261 male cancer cases are projected for 2035. Breast and prostate cancers are projected to be the most common cancers among females and males, respectively in 2035. Most cancers' mortality rate is decreasing; there are notable increases for liver, oral and anal cancer. For 2035, there are 95 961 female deaths projected and 116 585 male deaths projected.ConclusionsThese findings stress the need to continue efforts to address cancer risk factors. Furthermore, the increased burden of the number of cancer cases and deaths as a result of the growing and ageing population should be taken into consideration by healthcare planners.
| S-EPMC5117795 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceGastric cancer is one of the most common cancers, with a high mortality-to-incidence ratio. It is uncertain whether developed nations may encounter an increasing burden of gastric cancer in young adults, as occurs for other cancers.ObjectivesTo evaluate the incidence and mortality of gastric cancer and compare the global incidence trends between younger (<40 years) and older (≥40 years) populations.Design, setting, and participantsThis population-based cohort study analyzed data from global and national cancer registries, including data from 1980 to 2018, with at least 15 calendar years of incidence and mortality data. Data on age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of gastric cancer among 48 countries were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, the National Cancer Institute, the Nordic Cancer Registries, and the World Health Organization Mortality Database. The 10-year incidence trend of gastric cancer was assessed by age and sex. The 2018 GLOBOCAN database was used for reporting the global incidence and mortality of gastric cancer, the most recent data available at the time of analysis. Analyses were performed between January 10, 2020, and March 20, 2020.Main outcomes and measuresThe average annual percent change (AAPC) of the incidence and mortality trends as evaluated by joinpoint regression analysis.ResultsA total of 1 033 701 new cases of gastric cancer and 782 685 related deaths were reported in 2018. Overall, the incidence of gastric cancer decreased in 29 countries, and mortality decreased in 41 countries. The age-standardized incidence of gastric cancer decreased from a range of 2.6 to 59.1 in 1980 to a range of 2.5 to 56.8 in 2018 per 100 000 persons. The overall age-standardized mortality rate changed from a range of 1.3 to 25.8 in 1980 to a range of 1.5 to 18.5 in 2018 per 100 000 persons, but increasing mortality was observed in Thailand (female: AAPC, 5.30; 95% CI, 4.38-6.23; P < .001; male: AAPC, 3.92; 95% CI, 2.14-5.74; P < .001). The incidence of gastric cancer decreased in most regions among individuals 40 years or older and increased in populations younger than 40 years in several countries, including Sweden (male: AAPC, 13.92; 95% CI, 7.16-21.11; P = .001), Ecuador (female: AAPC, 6.05; 95% CI, 1.40-10.92; P = .02), and the UK (male: AAPC, 4.27; 95% CI, 0.15-8.55; P = .04; female: AAPC, 3.60; 95% CI, 3.59-3.61; P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceIn this population-based cohort study, an increasing incidence of gastric cancer was observed in younger individuals in some countries, highlighting the need for more preventive strategies in younger populations. Future research should explore the reasons for these epidemiologic trends.
| S-EPMC8314143 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Breast cancer (BC) is one of the major public health challenges worldwide. Studies that address the new evidence on trends of BC are of great importance for preventing and controlling the occurrence and development of diseases and improving health. The aim of this study was to analyze the outcomes for the global burden of disease (GBD), incidence, deaths, and risk factors for BC from 1990 to 2019, and predict the GBD of BC until 2050 to inform global BC control planning efforts. In this study, the results show that the regions with low levels of socio-demographic index (SDI) will have the largest disease burden of BC in the future. The leading global risk factor for death attributable to BC in 2019 was metabolic risks, followed by behavioral risks. This study supports the worldwide urgent need for comprehensive cancer prevention and control strategies to reduce exposure, early screening, and improve treatment to effectively reduce the GBD of BC.
| S-EPMC10224917 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundLung cancer has been the leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide for many years. This study aimed to investigate the global patterns and trends of lung cancer.MethodsLung cancer incidence and mortality were derived from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database. Continuous data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Time Trends were used to analyze the temporal trends from 2000 to 2012 using Joinpoint regression, and average annual percent changes were calculated. The association between the Human Development Index and lung cancer incidence and mortality was assessed by linear regression.ResultsAn estimated 2.2 million new lung cancer cases and 1.8 million lung cancer-related deaths occurred in 2020. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) ranged from 36.8 per 100,000 in Demark to 5.9 per 100,000 in Mexico. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) varied from 32.8 per 100,000 in Poland to 4.9 per 100,000 in Mexico. Both ASIR and ASMR were approximately twice higher in men than in women. The ASIR of lung cancer showed a downward trend in the United States of America (USA) between 2000 and 2012, and was more prominent in men. The age-specific incidence rates of lung cancer for ages of 50 to 59 years showed an upward trend in China for both men and women.ConclusionsThe burden of lung cancer is still unsatisfactory, especially in developing countries like China. Considering the effectiveness of tobacco control and screening in developed countries, such as the USA, there is a need to strengthen health education, accelerate the establishment of tobacco control policies and regulations, and improve early cancer screening awareness to reduce the future burden of lung cancer.
| S-EPMC10325747 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMyocarditis and cardiomyopathy are commonly occurring cardiovascular diseases that seriously threaten children's health. It was urgent to update the global incidence and mortality of childhood myocarditis and cardiomyopathy, and to predict the incidence rate of 2035 by the Global Burden of Disease database.MethodsThe Global Burden of Disease study data from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories were used to determine: global incidence and mortality rates of childhood myocarditis and cardiomyopathy from 0 to 19 by five age groups; relationship between sociodemographic index (SDI) and incidence and mortality rates by age group; and, based on an age-period-cohort model, the projected incidence of childhood myocarditis and cardiomyopathy for 2035.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2019, global age-standardized incidence rate decreased by 0.1% (95% UI 0.0-0.1) to 7.7% (95% UI 5.1-11.1). Boys had higher age-standardized incidence of childhood myocarditis and cardiomyopathy than girls [9.12, (95% UI 6.05-13.07) vs. 6.18, (95% UI 4.06-8.92)]. Childhood myocarditis and cardiomyopathy affected 121,259 (95% UI 80,467-173,790) boys and 77,216 (95% UI 50,684-111,535) girls in 2019. At the regional level, SDI changes in most areas showed no meaningful difference. In East Asia and high-income Asia Pacific, increased SDI was associated with decreased and increased incidence rate, respectively. In 2019, 11,755 (95% UI 9,611-14,509) children died from myocarditis and cardiomyopathy worldwide. Age-standardized mortality rate decreased significantly by 0.4% (95% UI 0.2-0.6)-0.5% (95% UI 0.4-0.6). Number of deaths from childhood myocarditis and cardiomyopathy in 2019 was highest in the <5-year-old group [7,442 (95% UI 5,834-9,699)]. Myocarditis and cardiomyopathy incidence in 10-14- and 15-19-year-olds is projected to increase by 2035.ConclusionGlobal data on childhood myocarditis and cardiomyopathy from 1990 to 2019 showed a decreasing trend in incidence and mortality, and an increasing trend in older children, especially in high SDI regions.
| S-EPMC10185772 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundUrolithiasis is among the most common urologic diagnoses globally, with substantial burden and cost on healthcare systems worldwide. Increasing evidence links urolithiasis with an array of risk factors, including diet and lifestyle trends, noncommunicable diseases such as diabetes and obesity, and global warming.ObjectiveTo examine geographic, temporal, and sociodemographic patterns to better understand global disease burden of urolithiasis.Design setting and participantsWe extracted data on age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to urolithiasis for 21 regions, including 204 countries, for 1990-2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study.Outcome measurements and statistical analysisData were analyzed at the global, regional, and country levels, as well as stratified by the Socio-Demographic Index. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated to measure temporal trends across groups.Results and limitationsGlobally, total cases, DALYs, and deaths attributed to urolithiasis increased over the study period, while the age-standardized rates of these measures decreased. The age-standardized incidence of urolithiasis decreased from 1696.2 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1358.1-2078.1) cases per 100 000 population in 1990 to 1394.0 (95% CI, 1126.4-1688.2) cases per 100 000 population in 2019, with an AAPC of -0.7 (95% CI [-0.8, -0.6]). Of the GBD regions, Eastern Europe demonstrated a consistently higher ASIR of urolithiasis than all other regions, while the Caribbean had the highest AAPC. This study is limited by the available national and regional data, as described in the original GBD study.ConclusionsWorldwide, total cases, DALYs, and deaths attributed to urolithiasis have increased since 1990, while age-standardized rates have decreased, with demonstrated regional and sociodemographic variation. Multifaceted strategies to address urolithiasis prevention and treatment are necessary.Patient summaryIn this study, we looked at trends in the global burden of stone disease using data from 204 countries from 1990 to 2019. We found that the overall burden has increased, but it varies by age, sociodemographic variables, and geographic region. We conclude that we need adaptable policies that suit the specific needs of the country to address this burden.
| S-EPMC8738898 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors study used the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) to quantify the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. This paper provides an overview of injury estimates from the 2013 update of GBD, with detailed information on incidence, mortality, DALYs and rates of change from 1990 to 2013 for 26 causes of injury, globally, by region and by country.MethodsInjury mortality was estimated using the extensive GBD mortality database, corrections for ill-defined cause of death and the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient data sets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories, and seven follow-up studies with patient-reported long-term outcome measures.ResultsIn 2013, 973 million (uncertainty interval (UI) 942 to 993) people sustained injuries that warranted some type of healthcare and 4.8 million (UI 4.5 to 5.1) people died from injuries. Between 1990 and 2013 the global age-standardised injury DALY rate decreased by 31% (UI 26% to 35%). The rate of decline in DALY rates was significant for 22 cause-of-injury categories, including all the major injuries.ConclusionsInjuries continue to be an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed and developing world. The decline in rates for almost all injuries is so prominent that it warrants a general statement that the world is becoming a safer place to live in. However, the patterns vary widely by cause, age, sex, region and time and there are still large improvements that need to be made.
| S-EPMC4752630 | biostudies-literature