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Climate change and their impacts in the Balearic Islands: a guide for policy design in Mediterranean regions

ABSTRACT: Understanding the local effects of global warming-derived impacts is important to island systems due to their fragile environmental conditions. This is especially true when it comes to Mediterranean insular regions as they are climate change (CC) hotspots where adaptation and mitigation policy design is an urgent matter. Looking at 2030 as a time horizon for climate action and focusing on the Balearic Islands, this paper reviews the physical changes projected for the coming decades as a result of CC and analyses their impacts on regional environmental, economic and social variables. Mitigation and adaptation measures are also proposed based on the identified priority impacts. The fact the Balearics are a top world holiday destination allows the analysis to serve as a guide to other Mediterranean islands with tourism-based economies facing similar CC scenarios. Results show the projected rise of temperature and sea level; the reduction of the average precipitation and increase in evapotranspiration, the droughts and the increase in ocean acidification and deoxygenation are the main threats faced by the Balearics, this putting their economy at risk due to the high tourism’s vulnerability to CC. Mitigation and adaptation action on terrestrial and marine ecosystems, water resources, energy, infrastructure and urban planning, human health, economy, law and education is recommended. Sustainable mobility and waste managing are also viewed as important fields for mitigation action. Conclusions show that diversifying the current socioeconomic model is needed to increase the community and territory resilience.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-021-01810-1.

SUBMITTER: Torres C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8536903 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The Falkland Islands are predicted to experience up to 2.2°C rise in mean annual temperature over the coming century, greater than four times the rate over the last century. Our study investigates likely vulnerabilities of a suite of range-restricted species whose distributions are associated with archipelago-wide climatic variation. We used present day climate maps calibrated using local weather data, 2020-2080 climate predictions from regional climate models, non-climate variables derived from a digital terrain model and a comprehensive database on local plant distributions. Weighted mean ensemble models were produced to assess changes in range sizes and overlaps between the current range and protected areas network. Target species included three globally threatened Falkland endemics, Nassauvia falklandica, Nastanthus falklandicus and Plantago moorei; and two nationally threatened species, Acaena antarctica and Blechnum cordatum. Our research demonstrates that temperature increases predicted for the next century have the potential to significantly alter plant distributions across the Falklands. Upland species, in particular, were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. No known locations of target upland species or the southwestern species Plantago moorei are predicted to remain environmentally suitable in the face of predicted climate change. We identify potential refugia for these species and associated gaps in the current protected areas network. Species currently restricted to the milder western parts of the archipelago are broadly predicted to expand their ranges under warmer temperatures. Our results emphasise the importance of implementing suitable adaptation strategies to offset climate change impacts, particularly site management. There is an urgent need for long-term monitoring and artificial warming experiments; the results of this study will inform the selection of the most suitable locations for these. Results are also helping inform management recommendations for the Falkland Islands Government who seek to better conserve their biodiversity and meet commitments to multi-lateral environmental agreements.

Dataset Information

Climate change and their impacts in the Balearic Islands: a guide for policy design in Mediterranean regions

Supplementary Information

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