Dataset Information

Composite Score: prognostic tool to predict survival in patients undergoing surgery for colorectal liver metastases.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Several existing scoring systems predict survival of patients with colorectal liver metastases. Many lack validation, rely on old clinical data, and have been found to be less accurate since the introduction of chemotherapy. This study aimed to construct and validate a clinically relevant preoperative prognostic model for patients with colorectal liver metastases.

Methods

A predictive model with data available before surgery was developed. Survival was analysed by Cox regression analysis, and the quality of the model was assessed using discrimination and calibration. The model was validated using multifold cross-validation.

Results

The model included 1212 consecutive patients who underwent liver resection for colorectal liver metastases between 2005 and 2015. Prognostic factors for survival included advanced age, raised C-reactive protein level, hypoalbuminaemia, extended liver resection, larger number of metastases, and midgut origin of the primary tumour. A Composite Score was developed based on the prognostic variables. Patients were classified into those at low, medium, and high risk. Survival differences between the groups were significant; median overall survival was 87.4 months in the low-risk group, 50.1 months in the medium-risk group, and 22.6 months in the high-risk group. The discriminative performance, assessed by the concordance index, was 0.71, 0.67, and 0.67 respectively at 1, 3, and 5 years. Calibration, assessed graphically, was close to perfect. A multifold cross-validation of the model confirmed its internal validity (C-index 0.63 versus 0.62).

Conclusion

The Composite Score categorizes patients into risk strata, and may help identify patients who have a poor prognosis, for whom surgery is questionable.

SUBMITTER: Fruhling P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8545612 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Oxidative stress plays an important role in the development of colorectal cancer (CRC). This study is aimed at developing and validating a novel scoring system, based on oxidative stress indexes, for prognostic prediction in CRC patients. A retrospective analysis of 1422 CRC patients who underwent surgical resection between January 2013 and December 2017 was performed. These patients were randomly assigned to the training set (n = 1022) or the validation set (n = 400). Cox regression model was used to analyze the laboratory parameters. The CRC-Integrated Oxidative Stress Score (CIOSS) was developed from albumin (ALB), direct bilirubin (DBIL), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN), which were significantly associated with survival in CRC patients. Furthermore, a survival nomogram was generated by combining the CIOSS with other beneficial clinical characteristics. The CIOSS generated was as follows: 0.074 × albumin (g/L), -0.094 × bilirubin (μmol/L), and -0.099 × blood urea nitrogen (mmol/L), based on the multivariable Cox regression analysis. Using 50% (0.1025) and 85% (0.481) of CIOSS as cutoff values, three prognostically distinct groups were formed. Patients with high CIOSS experienced worse overall survival (OS) (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.80-6.68; P < 0.001) and worse disease-free survival (DFS) (HR = 3.02; 95% CI, 1.96-4.64; P < 0.001) compared to those with low CIOSS. This predictive nomogram had good calibration and discrimination. ROC analyses showed that the CIOSS possessed excellent performance (AUC = 0.818) in predicting DFS. The AUC of the OS nomogram based on CIOSS, TNM stage, T stage, and chemotherapy was 0.812, while that of the DFS nomogram based on CIOSS, T stage, and TNM stage was 0.855. Decision curve analysis showed that these two prediction models were clinically useful. CIOSS is a CRC-specific prognostic index based on the combination of available oxidative stress indexes. High CIOSS is a powerful indicator of poor prognosis. The CIOSS also showed better predictive performance compared to TNM stage in CRC patients.