Social distancing and influenza mortality in 1918 did not increase suicide rates in the United States
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Gaddy H
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8551840 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:The 1918 influenza pandemic was characterized by multiple epidemic waves. We investigated reactive social distancing, a form of behavioral response where individuals avoid potentially infectious contacts in response to available information on an ongoing epidemic or pandemic. We modelled its effects on the three influenza waves in the United Kingdom. In previous studies, human behavioral response was modelled by a Power function of the proportion of recent influenza mortality in a population, and by a Hill function, which is a function of the number of recent influenza mortality. Using a simple epidemic model with a Power function and one common set of parameters, we provided a good model fit for the observed multiple epidemic waves in London boroughs, Birmingham and Liverpool. We further applied the model parameters from these three cities to all 334 administrative units in England and Wales and including the population sizes of individual administrative units. We computed the Pearson's correlation between the observed and simulated for each administrative unit. We found a median correlation of 0.636, indicating that our model predictions are performing reasonably well. Our modelling approach is an improvement from previous studies where separate models are fitted to each city. With the reduced number of model parameters used, we achieved computational efficiency gain without over-fitting the model. We also showed the importance of reactive behavioral distancing as a potential non-pharmaceutical intervention during an influenza pandemic. Our work has both scientific and public health significance.
| S-EPMC5507503 | biostudies-literature
Project description:During most of the twentieth century, cardiovascular mortality increased in the United States while other causes of death declined. By 1958, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) for cardiovascular causes for females was 1.84 times that for all other causes, combined (and, for males, 1.79×). Although contemporary observers believed that cardiovascular mortality would remain high, the late 1950s and early 1960s turned out to be the peak of a roughly 70-year epidemic. By 1988 for females (1986 for males), a spectacular decline had occurred, wherein the ASDR for cardiovascular causes was less than that for other causes combined. We discuss this phenomenon from a demographic point of view. We also test a hypothesis from the literature, that the 1918 influenza pandemic caused the cardiovascular mortality epidemic; we fail to find support.
| S-EPMC5068420 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceSelf-injury mortality (SIM) combines suicides and the preponderance of drug misuse-related overdose fatalities. Identifying social and environmental factors associated with SIM and suicide may inform etiologic understanding and intervention design.ObjectiveTo identify factors associated with interstate SIM and suicide rate variation and to assess potential for differential suicide misclassification.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study used a partial panel time series with underlying cause-of-death data from 50 US states and the District of Columbia for 1999-2000, 2007-2008, 2013-2014 and 2018-2019. Applying data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, SIM includes all suicides and the preponderance of unintentional and undetermined drug intoxication deaths, reflecting self-harm behaviors. Data were analyzed from February to June 2021.ExposuresExposures included inequity, isolation, demographic characteristics, injury mechanism, health care access, and medicolegal death investigation system type.Main outcomes and measuresThe main outcome, SIM, was assessed using unstandardized regression coefficients of interstate variation associations, identified by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator; ratios of crude SIM to suicide rates per 100 000 population were assessed for potential differential suicide misclassification.ResultsA total of 101 325 SIMs were identified, including 74 506 (73.5%) among males and 26 819 (26.5%) among females. SIM to suicide rate ratios trended upwards, with an accelerating increase in overdose fatalities classified as unintentional or undetermined (SIM to suicide rate ratio, 1999-2000: 1.39; 95% CI, 1.38-1.41; 2018-2019: 2.12; 95% CI, 2.11-2.14). Eight states recorded a SIM to suicide rate ratio less than 1.50 in 2018-2019 vs 39 states in 1999-2000. Northeastern states concentrated in the highest category (range, 2.10-6.00); only the West remained unrepresented. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator identified 8 factors associated with the SIM rate in 2018-2019: centralized medical examiner system (β = 4.362), labor underutilization rate (β = 0.728), manufacturing employment (β = -0.056), homelessness rate (β = -0.125), percentage nonreligious (β = 0.041), non-Hispanic White race and ethnicity (β = 0.087), prescribed opioids for 30 days or more (β = 0.117), and percentage without health insurance (β = -0.013) and 5 factors associated with the suicide rate: percentage male (β = 1.046), military veteran (β = 0.747), rural (β = 0.031), firearm ownership (β = 0.030), and pain reliever misuse (β = 1.131).Conclusions and relevanceThese findings suggest that SIM rates were associated with modifiable, upstream factors. Although embedded in SIM, suicide unexpectedly deviated in proposed social and environmental determinants. Heterogeneity in medicolegal death investigation processes and data assurance needs further characterization, with the goal of providing the highest-quality reports for developing and tracking public health policies and practices.
| S-EPMC8829661 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Consensus is lacking in the literature about the role of socioeconomic factors on influenza-associated deaths during the 1918 pandemic. Although some scholars have found that social factors were important, others have not. In this study, we analyzed differences in excess mortality by social class in Sweden during the 1918 pandemic. We analyzed individual-level mortality of the entire population aged 30-59 years by combining information from death records with census data on occupation. Social class was measured by an occupation-based class scheme. Excess mortality during the pandemic was measured as the number of deaths relative to the number occurring in the same month the year before. Social class differences in numbers of deaths were modeled using a complementary log-log model that was adjusted for potential confounding at the family, the residential (urban/rural), and the county levels. We found notable class differences in excess mortality but no perfect class gradient. Class differences were somewhat larger for men than for women.
| S-EPMC7314276 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Unemployment is a risk factor for suicide. Unemployment insurance is the primary policy tool in the United States for alleviating the burden of unemployment on individuals. Our objective was to estimate the effect of state unemployment insurance accessibility on suicide rates, and effect modification by sociodemographic factors and unemployment rate. We used quarterly data from all 50 U.S. states and Washington, DC from 2000 to 2015, for a total of 3264 state-quarter units of analysis. The exposure was the quarterly unemployment insurance recipiency rate, i.e. the percentage of unemployed persons who received unemployment insurance. The outcome was the state-quarterly suicide rate per 100,000 population. Linear regression models included state, year, and calendar quarter fixed effects, state time trends, and state-level economic covariates to account for state-specific time-varying confounding. We assessed effect modification by the state-level unemployment rate, educational attainment, age, gender, and race. Based on fully adjusted models, potential protective effects of higher unemployment insurance recipiency rates appear to be small and restricted to demographic groups at higher risk of suicide including men, non-Hispanic White Americans, and those 45-64 years of age. These groups also generally have higher UI recipiency rates, therefore differences in subgroup estimates may reflect variations in eligibility policies and accessibility of UI programs.
| S-EPMC7704719 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveWe determined the annual suicide rate of migrants detained by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the past decade.MethodsWe performed a retrospective cohort analysis of the annual suicide rates for ICE detainees from federal fiscal years (FY) 2010-2020. Death date and cause of death were directly extracted from publicly available ICE Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) Library, ICE death reports, and ICE press releases. Annual suicide rates were calculated as suicides per 100,000 person-years and suicides per 100,000 admissions.ResultsFrom 2010-2019, the mean number of suicides per 100,000 person-years was 3.3 (standard deviation (SD): 2.6). In 2020, the suicide rate increased 5.3 times the prior 10-year average to 17.4 suicides per 100,000 person-years. When calculating suicide rate based on admissions per FY, the mean number of suicides from 2010-2019 per 100,000 admissions was 0.3 (SD: 0.3). In 2020, the suicide rate increased 11.0 times the prior 10-year average to 3.4 suicides per 100,000 admissions.ConclusionIn 2020, the detainee suicide rate increased substantially compared to the past decade. This may point to a worsening mental health crisis in ICE detention.
| S-EPMC8334629 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSelf-protective behaviors of social distancing and vaccination uptake vary by demographics and affect the transmission dynamics of influenza in the United States. By incorporating the socio-behavioral differences in social distancing and vaccination uptake into mathematical models of influenza transmission dynamics, we can improve our estimates of epidemic outcomes. In this study we analyze the impact of demographic disparities in social distancing and vaccination on influenza epidemics in urban and rural regions of the United States.MethodsWe conducted a survey of a nationally representative sample of US adults to collect data on their self-protective behaviors, including social distancing and vaccination to protect themselves from influenza infection. We incorporated this data in an agent-based model to simulate the transmission dynamics of influenza in the urban region of Miami Dade county in Florida and the rural region of Montgomery county in Virginia.ResultsWe compare epidemic scenarios wherein the social distancing and vaccination behaviors are uniform versus non-uniform across different demographic subpopulations. We infer that a uniform compliance of social distancing and vaccination uptake among different demographic subpopulations underestimates the severity of the epidemic in comparison to differentiated compliance among different demographic subpopulations. This result holds for both urban and rural regions.ConclusionsBy taking into account the behavioral differences in social distancing and vaccination uptake among different demographic subpopulations in analysis of influenza epidemics, we provide improved estimates of epidemic outcomes that can assist in improved public health interventions for prevention and control of influenza.
| S-EPMC6399923 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundInfluenza hospitalizations result in substantial morbidity and mortality each year. Little is known about the association between influenza hospitalization and census tract-based socioeconomic determinants beyond the effect of individual factors.ObjectiveTo evaluate whether census tract-based determinants such as poverty and household crowding would contribute significantly to the risk of influenza hospitalization above and beyond individual-level determinants.MethodsWe analyzed 33 515 laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations that occurred during the 2009-2010 through 2013-2014 influenza seasons using a population-based surveillance system at 14 sites across the United States.ResultsUsing a multilevel regression model, we found that individual factors were associated with influenza hospitalization with the highest adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 9.20 (95% CI 8.72-9.70) for those ?65 vs 5-17 years old. African Americans had an AOR of 1.67 (95% CI 1.60-1.73) compared to Whites, and Hispanics had an AOR of 1.21 (95% CI 1.16-1.26) compared to non-Hispanics. Among census tract-based determinants, those living in a tract with ?20% vs <5% of persons living below poverty had an AOR of 1.31 (95% CI 1.16-1.47), those living in a tract with ?5% vs <5% of persons living in crowded conditions had an AOR of 1.17 (95% CI 1.11-1.23), and those living in a tract with ?40% vs <5% female heads of household had an AOR of 1.32 (95% CI 1.25-1.40).ConclusionCensus tract-based determinants account for 11% of the variability in influenza hospitalization.
| S-EPMC5720587 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a viral pathogen that quickly became a global pandemic in the winter of 2020-2021. In response, governments issued social distancing orders to minimize transmission by reducing community contacts. We tested the efficacy of this social distancing at the state level during the first 2 months of the pandemic in the United States. We utilized data on daily SARS-CoV-2 case numbers and human community mobility (anonymized, aggregated cell phone location data stratified into six categories used as an index of social distancing), the date of government-issued social distancing orders, demographics, urbanization and public transportation. We implemented cross-correlation to identify lag times between declines in mobility and SARS-CoV-2 cases. Incorporating state-specific lag times, we tested for associations between case counts and mobility metrics using Bayesian multilevel models. Decreased mobility around grocery stores/pharmacies, retail/recreation locations, transit stations and workplaces was correlated with decreases in SARS-CoV-2 cases with significant lag times of ≥21 days. Social distancing orders were associated with fewer cumulative SARS-CoV-2 cases when they were put in place earlier. Community mobility had already started declining prior to most social distancing orders, especially the more restrictive orders implemented later in the pandemic. Social distancing is an important tool that has been implemented throughout the pandemic to decrease SARS-CoV-2 transmission, although with significant social and economic impacts. Our results suggest that declines in cases were observed several weeks subsequent to implementation of social distancing measures, and that implementing social distancing earlier could potentially minimize the duration of time these policies need to be in effect. Our findings can inform ongoing management of this pandemic and other emerging infectious disease outbreaks by identifying areas where reductions in mobility are associated with reduced disease transmission, and the expected time frame between behavioural changes and measurable population outcomes.
| S-EPMC9294068 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In order to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2, much of the US was placed under social distancing guidelines during March 2020. We characterized risk perceptions and adherence to social distancing recommendations in March 2020 among US adults aged 18+ in an online survey with age and gender quotas to match the general US population (N = 713). We used multivariable logistic and linear regression to estimate associations between age (by generational cohort) and these outcomes. The median perceived risk of infection with COVID-19 within the next month was 32%, and 65% of individuals were practicing more social distancing than before the outbreak. Baby Boomers had lower perceived risk than Millennials (-10.6%, 95% CI: -16.2%, -5.0%), yet were more frequently social distancing (OR = 1.64; 95% CI: 1.05, 2.56). Public health outreach should focus on raising compliance with social distancing recommendations, especially among high risk groups. Efforts to address risk perceptions alone may be inadequate.
| S-EPMC7485770 | biostudies-literature