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An exploration of factors characterising unusual spatial clusters of COVID-19 cases in the East Midlands region, UK: a geospatial analysis of ambulance 999 data.

ABSTRACT: Complex interactions between physical landscapes and social factors increase vulnerability to emerging infections and their sequelae. Relative vulnerability to severe illness and/or death (VSID) depends on risk and extent of exposure to a virus and underlying health susceptibility. Identifying vulnerable communities and the regions they inhabit in real time is essential for effective rapid response to a new pandemic, such as COVID-19. In the period between first confirmed cases and the introduction of widespread community testing, ambulance records of suspected severe illness from COVID-19 could be used to identify vulnerable communities and regions and rapidly appraise factors that may explain VSID. We analyse the spatial distribution of more than 10,000 suspected severe COVID-19 cases using records of provisional diagnoses made by trained paramedics attending medical emergencies. We identify 13 clusters of severe illness likely related to COVID-19 occurring in the East Midlands of the UK and present an in-depth analysis of those clusters, including urban and rural dynamics, the physical characteristics of landscapes, and socio-economic conditions. Our findings suggest that the dynamics of VSID vary depending on wider geographic location. Vulnerable communities and regions occur in more deprived urban centres as well as more affluent peri-urban and rural areas. This methodology could contribute to the development of a rapid national response to support vulnerable communities during emerging pandemics in real time to save lives.

SUBMITTER: Moore HE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8559787 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ObjectivesTo explore common features of conversations occurring in a sample of emergency calls that result in an ambulance dispatch for a 'primary care sensitive' situation, and better understand the challenges of triaging this cohort.DesignA qualitative study, applying conversation analytic methods to routinely recorded telephone calls made through the '999' system for an emergency ambulance. Cases were identified by a primary care clinician, observing front-line UK ambulance service shifts. A sample of 48 '999' recordings were analysed, corresponding to situations potentially amenable to primary care management.ResultsThe analysis focuses on four recurring ways that speakers use talk in these calls. Progress can be impeded when call-taker's questions appear to require callers to have access to knowledge that is not available to them. Accordingly, callers often provide personal accounts of observed events, which may be troublesome for call-takers to 'code' and triage. Certain question formats-notably 'alternative question' formats-appear particularly problematic. Callers deploy specific lexical, grammatical and prosodic resources to legitimise the contact as 'urgent', and ensure that their perception of risk is conveyed. Difficulties encountered in the triage exchange may be evidence of misalignment between organisational and caller perceptions of the 'purpose' of the questions.ConclusionsPrevious work has focused on exploring the presentation and triage of life-threatening medical emergencies. Meaningful insights into the challenges of EMS triage can also be gained by exploring calls for 'primary care sensitive' situations. The highly scripted triage process requires precise, 'codeable' responses to questions, which can create challenges when the exact urgency of the problem is unclear to both caller and call-taker. Calling on behalf of someone else may compound this complexity. The aetiology of some common interactional challenges may offer a useful frame for future comparison between calls for 'primary care sensitive' situations and life-threatening emergencies.

Project description:ObjectiveWhether ambulance transport patterns are optimized to match children to high-readiness emergency departments (EDs) and the resulting effect on survival are unknown. We quantified the number of children transported by 9-1-1 emergency medical services (EMS) to high-readiness EDs, additional children within 30 minutes of a high-readiness ED, and the estimated effect on survival.MethodsThis was a cross-sectional study using data from the National EMS Information System for 5,461 EMS agencies in 28 states from 1/1/2012 through 12/31/2019, matched to the 2013 National Pediatric Readiness Project assessment of ED pediatric readiness. We performed a geospatial analysis of children 0 to 17 years requiring 9-1-1 EMS transport to acute care hospitals, including day-, time-, and traffic-adjusted estimates for driving times to all EDs within 30 minutes of the scene. We categorized receiving hospitals by quartile of ED pediatric readiness using the weighted Pediatric Readiness Score (wPRS, range 0-100) and defined a high-risk subgroup of children as a proxy for admission. We used published estimates for the survival benefit of high readiness EDs to estimate the number of lives saved.ResultsThere were 808,536 children transported by EMS, of whom 253,541 (31.4%) were high-risk. Among the 2,261 receiving hospitals, the median wPRS was 70 (IQR 57-85, range 26-100) and the median number of receiving hospitals within 30 minutes was 4 per child (IQR 2-11, range 1 to 53). Among all children, 411,685 (50.9%) were taken to EDs in the highest quartile of pediatric readiness, and 180,547 (22.3%) children transported to lower readiness EDs were within 30 minutes of a high readiness ED. Findings were similar among high-risk children. Based on high-risk children, we estimated that 3,050 pediatric lives were saved by transport to high-readiness EDs and an additional 1,719 lives could have been saved by shifting transports to high readiness EDs within 30 minutes.ConclusionsApproximately half of children transported by EMS were taken to high-readiness EDs and an additional one quarter could have been transported to such an ED, with measurable effect on survival.

Project description:IntroductionKnee pain due to osteoarthritis (OA) is a common cause of disability. The UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence OA guidelines recommend education, exercise and weight loss advice (if overweight) as core interventions before pharmacological adjuncts. However, implementation of these in primary care is often suboptimal. This study aims to develop a complex intervention with non-pharmacological and pharmacological components that can be delivered by nurses. The feasibility and acceptability of the intervention, and feasibility of undertaking a future cohort randomised controlled trial (RCT) will be explored.Methods and analysisIn phase 1, we will develop a training programme for nurses and evaluate the fidelity and acceptability of the non-pharmacological element of the intervention. Fidelity checklists completed by the nurse will be compared with video analysis of the treatment sessions. Patients and nurses will be interviewed to determine the acceptability of the intervention and explore challenges to intervention delivery. The non-pharmacological component will be modified based on the findings. In phase 2, we will assess the feasibility of conducting a cohort RCT comprising both the pharmacological and modified non-pharmacological components. We will compare three groups: group A will receive the non-pharmacological components delivered before pharmacological components; group B will receive pharmacological components followed by the non-pharmacological components; and group C (control arm) will continue to receive usual care. Study outcomes will be collected at three time points: baseline, 13 and 26 weeks after randomisation. Qualitative interviews will be conducted with a sample of participants from each of the two active intervention arms.Ethics and disseminationThis protocol was approved by the East Midlands-Derby Research Ethics Committee (18/EM/0288) and registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (protocol v4.0, 10/02/2020). The study will be reported in accordance with the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials guidance and standards. The results will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed academic journals.Trial registration numberNCT03670706.

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An exploration of factors characterising unusual spatial clusters of COVID-19 cases in the East Midlands region, UK: a geospatial analysis of ambulance 999 data.

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