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Estimating the COVID-19 prevalence and mortality using a novel data-driven hybrid model based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition

ABSTRACT: In this study, we proposed a new data-driven hybrid technique by integrating an ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), with a nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural network (NARANN), called the EEMD-ARIMA-NARANN model, to perform time series modeling and forecasting based on the COVID-19 prevalence and mortality data from 28 February 2020 to 27 June 2020 in South Africa and Nigeria. By comparing the accuracy level of forecasting measurements with the basic ARIMA and NARANN models, it was shown that this novel data-driven hybrid model did a better job of capturing the dynamic changing trends of the target data than the others used in this work. Our proposed mixture technique can be deemed as a helpful policy-supportive tool to plan and provide medical supplies effectively. The overall confirmed cases and deaths were estimated to reach around 176,570 [95% uncertainty level (UL) 173,607 to 178,476] and 3454 (95% UL 3384 to 3487), respectively, in South Africa, along with 32,136 (95% UL 31,568 to 32,641) and 788 (95% UL 775 to 804) in Nigeria on 12 July 2020 using this data-driven EEMD-ARIMA-NARANN hybrid technique. The contributions of this study include three aspects. First, the proposed hybrid model can better capture the dynamic dependency characteristics compared with the individual models. Second, this new data-driven hybrid model is constructed in a more reasonable way relative to the traditional mixture model. Third, this proposed model may be generalized to estimate the epidemic patterns of COVID-19 in other regions.

SUBMITTER: Wang Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8560776 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Non-invasive fetal electrocardiography appears to be one of the most promising fetal monitoring techniques during pregnancy and delivery nowadays. This method is based on recording electrical potentials produced by the fetal heart from the surface of the maternal abdomen. Unfortunately, in addition to the useful fetal electrocardiographic signal, there are other interference signals in the abdominal recording that need to be filtered. The biggest challenge in designing filtration methods is the suppression of the maternal electrocardiographic signal. This study focuses on the extraction of fetal electrocardiographic signal from abdominal recordings using a combination of independent component analysis, recursive least squares, and ensemble empirical mode decomposition. The method was tested on two databases, the Fetal Electrocardiograms, Direct and Abdominal with Reference Heartbeats Annotations and the PhysioNet Challenge 2013 database. The evaluation was performed by the assessment of the accuracy of fetal QRS complexes detection and the quality of fetal heart rate determination. The effectiveness of the method was measured by means of the statistical parameters as accuracy, sensitivity, positive predictive value, and F1-score. Using the proposed method, when testing on the Fetal Electrocardiograms, Direct and Abdominal with Reference Heartbeats Annotations database, accuracy higher than 80% was achieved for 11 out of 12 recordings with an average value of accuracy 92.75% [95% confidence interval: 91.19-93.88%], sensitivity 95.09% [95% confidence interval: 93.68-96.03%], positive predictive value 96.36% [95% confidence interval: 95.05-97.17%] and F1-score 95.69% [95% confidence interval: 94.83-96.35%]. When testing on the Physionet Challenge 2013 database, accuracy higher than 80% was achieved for 17 out of 25 recordings with an average value of accuracy 78.24% [95% confidence interval: 73.44-81.85%], sensitivity 81.79% [95% confidence interval: 76.59-85.43%], positive predictive value 87.16% [95% confidence interval: 81.95-90.35%] and F1-score 84.08% [95% confidence interval: 80.75-86.64%]. Moreover, the non-invasive ST segment analysis was carried out on the records from the Fetal Electrocardiograms, Direct and Abdominal with Reference Heartbeats Annotations database and achieved high accuracy in 7 from in total of 12 records (mean values μ < 0.1 and values of ±1.96σ < 0.1).

Project description:Sudden cardiac death (SCD), which can deprive a person of life within minutes, is a destructive heart abnormality. Thus, providing early warning information for patients at risk of SCD, especially those outside hospitals, is essential. In this study, we investigated the performances of ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD)-based entropy features on SCD identification. EEMD-based entropy features were obtained by using the following technology: (1) EEMD was performed on HRV beats to decompose them into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), (2) five entropy parameters, namely Rényi entropy (RenEn), fuzzy entropy (FuEn), dispersion Entropy (DisEn), improved multiscale permutation entropy (IMPE), and Renyi distribution entropy(RdisEn), were computed from the first four IMFs obtained, which were named EEMD-based entropy features. Additionally, an automated scheme combining EEMD-based entropy and classical linear (time and frequency domains) features was proposed with the intention of detecting SCD early by analyzing 14 min (at seven successive intervals of 2 min) heart rate variability (HRV) in signals from a normal population and subjects at risk of SCD. Firstly, EEMD-based entropy and classical linear measurements were extracted from HRV beats, and then the integrated measurements were ranked by various methodologies, i.e., t-test, entropy, receiver-operating characteristics (ROC), Wilcoxon, and Bhattacharyya. Finally, these ranked features were fed into a k-Nearest Neighbor algorithm for classification. Compared with several state-of-the-art methods, the proposed scheme firstly predicted subjects at risk of SCD up to 14 min earlier with an accuracy of 96.1%, a sensitivity of 97.5%, and a specificity of 94.4% 14 min before SCD onset. The simulation results exhibited that EEMD-based entropy estimators showed significant difference between SCD patients and normal individuals and outperformed the classical linear estimators in SCD detection, the EEMD-based FuEn and IMPE indexes were particularly useful assessments for identification of patients at risk of SCD and can be used as novel indices to reveal the disorders of rhythm variations of the autonomic nervous system when affected by SCD.

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Estimating the COVID-19 prevalence and mortality using a novel data-driven hybrid model based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition

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