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Contribution of common risk variants to multiple sclerosis in Orkney and Shetland.

ABSTRACT: Orkney and Shetland, the population isolates that make up the Northern Isles of Scotland, are of particular interest to multiple sclerosis (MS) research. While MS prevalence is high in Scotland, Orkney has the highest global prevalence, higher than more northerly Shetland. Many hypotheses for the excess of MS cases in Orkney have been investigated, including vitamin D deficiency and homozygosity: neither was found to cause the high prevalence of MS. It is possible that this excess prevalence may be explained through unique genetics. We used polygenic risk scores (PRS) to look at the contribution of common risk variants to MS. Analyses were conducted using ORCADES (97/2118 cases/controls), VIKING (15/2000 cases/controls) and Generation Scotland (30/8708 cases/controls) data sets. However, no evidence of a difference in MS-associated common variant frequencies was found between the three control populations, aside from HLA-DRB1*15:01 tag SNP rs9271069. This SNP had a significantly higher risk allele frequency in Orkney (0.23, p value = 8 × 10^-13) and Shetland (0.21, p value = 2.3 × 10^-6) than mainland Scotland (0.17). This difference in frequency is estimated to account for 6 (95% CI 3, 8) out of 150 observed excess cases per 100,000 individuals in Shetland and 9 (95% CI 8, 11) of the observed 257 excess cases per 100,000 individuals in Orkney, compared with mainland Scotland. Common variants therefore appear to account for little of the excess burden of MS in the Northern Isles of Scotland.

SUBMITTER: Barnes CLK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8560837 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ObjectiveMultiple sclerosis (MS) is a multifactorial neurologic disease characterized by modest but tractable heritability. Genome-wide association studies have identified and/or validated multiple polymorphisms in approximately 16 genes associated with susceptibility. We aimed at investigating the aggregation of genetic MS risk markers in individuals by comparing multiple- and single-case families.MethodsA weighted log-additive integrative approach termed MS genetic burden (MSGB) was used to account for the well-established genetic variants from previous association studies and meta-analyses. The corresponding genetic burden and its transmission was analyzed in 1,213 independent MS families (810 sporadic and 403 multicase families).ResultsMSGB analysis demonstrated a higher aggregation of susceptibility variants in multicase compared to sporadic MS families. In addition, the aggregation of non-major histocompatibility complex single nucleotide polymorphisms depended neither on gender nor on the presence or absence of HLA-DRB1*15:01 alleles. Interestingly, although a greater MSGB in siblings of MS patients was associated with an increased risk of MS (odds ratio, 2.1; p = 0.001), receiver operating characteristic curves of MSGB differences between probands and sibs (area under the receiver operator curves, 0.57 [95% confidence interval, 0.53-0.61]) show that case-control status prediction of MS cannot be achieved with the currently available genetic data.InterpretationThe primary interest in the MSGB concept resides in its capacity to integrate cumulative genetic contributions to MS risk. This analysis underlines the high variability of family load with known common variants. This novel approach can be extended to other genetically complex diseases. Despite the emphasis on assembling large case-control datasets, multigenerational, multiaffected families remain an invaluable resource for advancing the understanding of the genetic architecture of complex traits.

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Contribution of common risk variants to multiple sclerosis in Orkney and Shetland.

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