Dataset Information

Clinical Validity of a Prognostic Gene Expression Cluster-Based Model in Human Papillomavirus–Positive Oropharyngeal Carcinoma

ABSTRACT: PURPOSE Under common therapeutic regimens, the prognosis of human papillomavirus (HPV)–positive squamous oropharyngeal carcinomas (OPCs) is more favorable than HPV-negative OPCs. However, the prognosis of some tumors is dismal, and validated prognostic factors are missing in clinical practice. The present work aimed to validate the prognostic significance of our published three-cluster model and to compare its prognostic value with those of the 8th edition of the tumor-node-metastasis staging system (TNM8) and published signatures and clustering models.

METHODS

Patients with HPV DNA-positive OPCs with locoregionally advanced nonmetastatic disease treated with curative intent (BD2Decide observational study, NCT02832102) were considered as validation cohort. Patients were treated in seven European centers, with expertise in the multidisciplinary management of patients with head and neck cancer. The median follow-up was 46.2 months (95% CI, 41.2 to 50), and data collection was concluded in September 2019. The primary end point of this study was overall survival (OS). Three-clustering models and seven prognostic signatures were compared with our three-cluster model.

RESULTS

The study population consisted of 235 patients. The three-cluster model confirmed its prognostic value. Two-year OS in each cluster was 100% in the low-risk cluster, 96.6% in the intermediate-risk cluster, and 86.3% in the high-risk cluster (P = .00074). For the high-risk cluster, we observed an area under the curve = 0.832 for 2-year OS, significantly outperforming TNM 8th edition (area under the curve = 0.596), and functional and biological differences were identified for each cluster.

CONCLUSION

The rigorous clinical selection of the cases included in this study confirmed the robustness of our three-cluster model in HPV-positive OPCs. The prognostic value was found to be independent and superior compared with TNM8. The next step includes the translation of the three-cluster model in clinical practice. This could open the way to future exploration of already available therapies in HPV-positive OPCs tailoring de-escalation or intensification according to the three-cluster model.

SUBMITTER: Cavalieri S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8563075 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:IMPORTANCE:Human papillomavirus-related oropharyngeal carcinoma (HPV-OPC) is increasing in incidence in the United States. Although HPV-OPC has favorable prognosis, 10% to 25% of HPV-OPCs recur. Detection of human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA in oral rinses is associated with HPV-OPC, but its potential as a prognostic biomarker is unclear. OBJECTIVE:To determine whether HPV DNA detection in oral rinses after treatment for HPV-OPC is associated with recurrence and survival. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS:Prospective cohort study of patients with incident HPV-OPC diagnosed from 2009 to 2013 at 4 academic tertiary referral cancer centers in the United States. Oral rinse samples were collected at diagnosis and after treatment (9, 12, 18, and 24 months after diagnosis), and evaluated for HPV DNA. Among an initial cohort of 157 participants with incident HPV-OPC treated with curative intent, 124 had 1 or more posttreatment oral rinses available and were included in this study. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES:Disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method, and the association of HPV DNA detection in oral rinses with survival was evaluated using Cox regression analysis. RESULTS:Oral HPV type 16 (HPV16) DNA was common at diagnosis (67 of 124 participants [54%]). In contrast, oral HPV16 DNA was detected in only 6 participants after treatment (5%), including 5 with HPV16 DNA also detected at diagnosis (persistent oral HPV16 DNA). Two-year DFS and OS were 92% (95% CI, 94%-100%) and 98% (95% CI, 93%-99%). Persistent oral HPV16 DNA was associated with worse DFS (hazard ratio, 29.7 [95% CI, 9.0-98.2]) and OS (hazard ratio, 23.5 [95% CI, 4.7-116.9]). All 5 participants with persistent oral HPV16 DNA developed recurrent disease, 3 with local disease involvement. In contrast, just 9 of 119 participants (8%) without persistent oral HPV16 DNA developed recurrent disease, only 1 (11%) with local disease involvement. Median (range) time from earliest posttreatment oral HPV16 DNA detection to recurrence was 7.0 (3.7-10.9) months. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE:Human papillomavirus type 16 DNA in oral rinses is common at diagnosis but rare after treatment for HPV-OPC. Our data suggest that, although infrequent, persistent HPV16 DNA in posttreatment oral rinses is associated with poor prognosis and is a potential tool for long-term tumor surveillance, perhaps more so for local recurrence.