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An accurate model for SARS-CoV-2 pooled RT-PCR test errors.

ABSTRACT: Pooling is a method of simultaneously testing multiple samples for the presence of pathogens. Pooling of SARS-CoV-2 tests is increasing in popularity, due to its high testing throughput. A popular pooling scheme is Dorfman pooling: test N individuals simultaneously, if the test is positive, each individual is then tested separately; otherwise, all are declared negative. Most analyses of the error rates of pooling schemes assume that including more than a single infected sample in a pooled test does not increase the probability of a positive outcome. We challenge this assumption with experimental data and suggest a novel and parsimonious probabilistic model for the outcomes of pooled tests. As an application, we analyse the false-negative rate (i.e. the probability of a negative result for an infected individual) of Dorfman pooling. We show that the false-negative rates under Dorfman pooling increase when the prevalence of infection decreases. However, low infection prevalence is exactly the condition when Dorfman pooling achieves highest throughput efficiency. We therefore urge the cautious use of pooling and development of pooling schemes that consider correctly accounting for tests' error rates.

SUBMITTER: Daon Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8564620 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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An accurate model for SARS-CoV-2 pooled RT-PCR test errors.

Daon Yair Y Huppert Amit A Obolski Uri U

Royal Society open science 20211103 11

Pooling is a method of simultaneously testing multiple samples for the presence of pathogens. Pooling of SARS-CoV-2 tests is increasing in popularity, due to its high testing throughput. A popular pooling scheme is Dorfman pooling: test <i>N</i> individuals simultaneously, if the test is positive, each individual is then tested separately; otherwise, all are declared negative. Most analyses of the error rates of pooling schemes assume that including more than a single infected sample in a pooled ...[more]

PMID: 34737873

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Project description:Wastewater surveillance for pathogens using reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is an effective and resource-efficient tool for gathering community-level public health information, including the incidence of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19). Surveillance of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in wastewater can potentially provide an early warning signal of COVID-19 infections in a community. The capacity of the world's environmental microbiology and virology laboratories for SARS-CoV-2 RNA characterization in wastewater is increasing rapidly. However, there are no standardized protocols or harmonized quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) procedures for SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance. This paper is a technical review of factors that can cause false-positive and false-negative errors in the surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater, culminating in recommended strategies that can be implemented to identify and mitigate some of these errors. Recommendations include stringent QA/QC measures, representative sampling approaches, effective virus concentration and efficient RNA extraction, PCR inhibition assessment, inclusion of sample processing controls, and considerations for RT-PCR assay selection and data interpretation. Clear data interpretation guidelines (e.g., determination of positive and negative samples) are critical, particularly when the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater is low. Corrective and confirmatory actions must be in place for inconclusive results or results diverging from current trends (e.g., initial onset or reemergence of COVID-19 in a community). It is also prudent to perform interlaboratory comparisons to ensure results' reliability and interpretability for prospective and retrospective analyses. The strategies that are recommended in this review aim to improve SARS-CoV-2 characterization and detection for wastewater surveillance applications. A silver lining of the COVID-19 pandemic is that the efficacy of wastewater surveillance continues to be demonstrated during this global crisis. In the future, wastewater should also play an important role in the surveillance of a range of other communicable diseases.

Project description:Rapid and accurate detection of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is essential for the successful control of the current global COVID-19 pandemic. The real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (Real-time RT-PCR) is the most widely used detection technique. This research describes the development of two novel multiplex real-time RT-PCR kits, AccuPower® COVID-19 Multiplex Real-Time RT-PCR Kit (NCVM) specifically designed for use with the ExiStation™48 system (comprised of ExiPrep™48 Dx and Exicycler™96 by BIONEER, Korea) for sample RNA extraction and PCR detection, and AccuPower® SARS-CoV-2 Multiplex Real-Time RT-PCR Kit (SCVM) designed to be compatible with manufacturers' on-market PCR instruments. The limit of detection (LoD) of NCVM was 120 copies/mL and the LoD of the SCVM was 2 copies/μL for both the Pan-sarbecovirus gene and the SARS-CoV-2 gene. The AccuPower® kits demonstrated high precision with no cross reactivity to other respiratory-related microorganisms. The clinical performance of AccuPower® kits was evaluated using the following clinical samples: sputum and nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swab (NPS/OPS) samples. Overall agreement of the AccuPower® kits with a Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved emergency use authorized commercial kit (STANDARD™ M nCoV Real-Time Detection kit, SD BIOSENSOR, Korea) was above 95% (Cohen's kappa coefficient ≥ 0.95), with a sensitivity of over 95%. The NPS/OPS specimen pooling experiment was conducted to verify the usability of AccuPower® kits on pooled samples and the results showed greater than 90% agreement with individual NPS/OPS samples. The clinical performance of AccuPower® kits with saliva samples was also compared with NPS/OPS samples and demonstrated over 95% agreement (Cohen's kappa coefficient > 0.95). This study shows the BIONEER NCVM and SCVM assays are comparable with the current standard confirmation assay and are suitable for effective clinical management and control of SARS-CoV-2.

Dataset Information

An accurate model for SARS-CoV-2 pooled RT-PCR test errors.

Publications

An accurate model for SARS-CoV-2 pooled RT-PCR test errors.

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