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Risk Factors of Influenza-Associated Respiratory Illnesses Reported to a Sentinel Hospital of Lahore, Pakistan: 2015-2016

ABSTRACT: Epidemiological data about determinants of influenza A virus (IAV) in the Pakistani population is scarce. We aimed to conduct a prospective hospital-based active surveillance study from October 2015 to May 2016 to identify potential risk factors associated with IAV infection among patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory illness (SARI). Surveillance was conducted in Lahore General Hospital, selected as a sentinel site in Lahore District, Pakistan. Nasal/throat samples were collected along with epidemiological and clinical data from enrolled patients. Real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) was performed to identify IAV and its subtypes (H1N1pdm09, H3N2). Data were analyzed to determine risk factors and risk markers associated with IAV infections. A total of 311 suspected ILI and SARI cases were enrolled in the study, and among these 50 were IAV-positive. Of these 50 confirmed cases of IAV, 14 were subtyped as H1N1pdm09 and 15 were H3N2; the remaining 21 were untyped. A final multivariable model identified four independent risk factors/markers for IAV infection: exposure history to ILI patients within last 7 days and gender being male were identified as risk factors of IAV infection, while use of antibiotics prior to hospital consultation and presence of fever were identified as risk markers. We concluded that adopting nonpharmaceutical interventions like hand hygiene, masks, social distancing, and where possible, avoiding identified risk factors could decrease the risk of IAV infection and may prevent imminent outbreaks of IAV in the community.

SUBMITTER: Hasan S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8566087 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundDirect observation of the household spread of influenza and respiratory infections is limited; much of our understanding comes from mathematical models. The study aims to determine household incidence of influenza-like illness (ILI), lower (LRTI) and upper (URTI) respiratory infections within a primary care routine data and identify factors associated with the diseases' incidence.MethodsWe conducted two five-year retrospective analyses of influenza-like illness (ILI), lower (LRTI) and upper (URTI) respiratory infections using the England Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) primary care sentinel network database; a cross-sectional study reporting incident rate ratio (IRR) from a negative binomial model and a retrospective cohort study, using a shared gamma frailty survival model, reporting hazard ratios (HR). We reported the following household characteristics: children < 5 years old, each extra household member, gender, ethnicity (reference white), chronic disease, pregnancy, and rurality.ResultsThe IRR where there was a child < 5 years were 1·62 (1·38-1·89, p < 0·0001), 2·40 (2.04-2.83, p < 0·0001) and 4·46 (3.79-5.255, p < 0·0001) for ILI, LRTI and URTI respectively. IRR also increased with household size, rurality and presentations and by female gender, compared to male. Household incidence of URTI and LRTI changed little between years whereas influenza did and were greater in years with lower vaccine effectiveness. The HR where there was a child < 5 years were 2·34 (95%CI 1·88-2·90, p < 0·0001), 2·97 (95%CI 2·76-3·2, p < 0·0001) and 10·32 (95%CI 10.04-10.62, p < 0·0001) for ILI, LRTI and URTI respectively. HR were increased with female gender, rurality, and increasing household size.ConclusionsPatterns of household incidence can be measured from routine data and may provide insights for the modelling of disease transmission and public health policy.

Project description:BackgroundThe Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network is an international platform whose primary objective is to study severe cases of influenza requiring hospitalization.MethodsDuring the 2015-2016 influenza season, 11 sites in the Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network in nine countries (Russian Federation, Czech Republic, Turkey, France, China, Spain, Mexico, India, and Brazil) participated in a prospective, active-surveillance, hospital-based epidemiological study. Influenza infection was confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. Influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against laboratory-confirmed influenza was estimated using a test-negative approach.Results9882 patients with laboratory results were included of which 2415 (24.4%) were positive for influenza, including 1415 (14.3%) for A(H1N1)pdm09, 235 (2.4%) for A(H3N2), 180 (1.8%) for A not subtyped, 45 (0.5%) for B/Yamagata-lineage, 532 (5.4%) for B/Victoria-lineage, and 33 (0.3%) for B not subtyped. Of included admissions, 39% were < 5 years of age and 67% had no underlying conditions. The odds of being admitted with influenza were higher among pregnant than non-pregnant women (odds ratio, 2.82 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.90 to 4.19]). Adjusted IVE against influenza-related hospitalization was 16.3% (95% CI, 0.4 to 29.7). Among patients targeted for influenza vaccination, adjusted IVE against hospital admission with influenza was 16.2% (95% CI, - 3.6 to 32.2) overall, 23.0% (95% CI, - 3.3 to 42.6) against A(H1N1)pdm09, and - 25.6% (95% CI, - 86.3 to 15.4) against B/Victoria lineage.ConclusionsThe 2015-2016 influenza season was dominated by A(H1N1)pdm09 and B/Victoria-lineage. Hospitalization with influenza often occurred in healthy and young individuals, and pregnant women were at increased risk of influenza-related hospitalization. Influenza vaccines provided low to moderate protection against hospitalization with influenza and no protection against the predominant circulating B lineage, highlighting the need for more effective and broader influenza vaccines.

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Risk Factors of Influenza-Associated Respiratory Illnesses Reported to a Sentinel Hospital of Lahore, Pakistan: 2015-2016

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