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Robust prediction of hourly PM2.5 from meteorological data using LightGBM

ABSTRACT: Abstract Retrieving historical fine particulate matter (PM2.5) data is key for evaluating the long-term impacts of PM2.5 on the environment, human health and climate change. Satellite-based aerosol optical depth has been used to estimate PM2.5, but estimations have largely been undermined by massive missing values, low sampling frequency and weak predictive capability. Here, using a novel feature engineering approach to incorporate spatial effects from meteorological data, we developed a robust LightGBM model that predicts PM2.5 at an unprecedented predictive capacity on hourly (R2 = 0.75), daily (R2 = 0.84), monthly (R2 = 0.88) and annual (R2 = 0.87) timescales. By taking advantage of spatial features, our model can also construct hourly gridded networks of PM2.5. This capability would be further enhanced if meteorological observations from regional stations were incorporated. Our results show that this model has great potential in reconstructing historical PM2.5 datasets and real-time gridded networks at high spatial-temporal resolutions. The resulting datasets can be assimilated into models to produce long-term re-analysis that incorporates interactions between aerosols and physical processes. A high-performance machine-learning model incorporating spatial effects was developed to estimate historical PM2.5 concentrations based on meteorological data. Capable of hourly resolution, this dataset will be of great value for understanding PM2.5's long-term climate and environmental effects and producing chemical-weather coupled reanalysis.

SUBMITTER: Zhong J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8566180 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:With the continuous promotion of urbanization in China, air pollution problems have become increasingly prominent in recent years. Various factors, such as emissions, meteorology, and physical and chemical reactions, jointly affect the severity of PM2.5 pollution to a large extent. This study selected five meteorological variables (planetary boundary layer height (PBLH), wind speed (WS), temperature(T), water vapor mixing ratio(Q), and precipitation (PCP)) for perturbation, and 21 different scenarios were set up. In this study, the effects of changes in a single meteorological variable on the pollutants produced in the area were represented by subtracting the baseline scenario (i.e., without perturbation of meteorological variables) simulated in January 2017 separately from each post-disturbance scenario. The results showed that Handan (HD) has the highest annual mean PM2.5 concentration of 85.75 μg/m3 in 2017, while all cities in study area exceeded the secondary concentration limit of urban atmospheric particulate matter. The correlation coefficient (R) between the simulation values of models and the actual monitoring values ranges from 0.41 to 0.74, indicating good model performance and acceptable simulation errors. PBLH (±10%-±20%), WS(±10%-±20%), and PCP(±10%-±20%) all showed a single adverse effect among the five meteorological variables, meaning that a reduction in these three factors led to an increase in PM2.5 concentrations. However, T (±1 K-±1.5 K) and Q (±10%-±20%) could indicate a positive impact under certain conditions. From the sensitivity calculations of single meteorological variables, it is clear that WS, PBLH, and PCP show a highly linear trend in all cities at the 0.01 level of significance. The hypothesis that T changes linearly in 10 cities in the study area is valid, while for Q, the hypothesis that Q changes linearly only occurs in Shijiazhuang and Baoding. When different meteorological variables are disturbed, there are significant spatial differences in the main affected areas of PM2.5 concentrations. By discussing the impact of meteorological variable disturbance on air quality in critically polluted cities in China, this study identified the meteorological variables that can substantially affect PM2.5 concentration. The more complex T and Q should be considered when formulating relevant emission measures.

Project description:IntroductionDespite the London Underground (LU) handling on average 2.8 million passenger journeys per day, the characteristics and potential health effects of the elevated concentrations of metal-rich PM2.5 found in this subway system are not well understood.MethodsSpatial monitoring campaigns were carried out to characterise the health-relevant chemical and physical properties of PM2.5 across the LU network, including diurnal and day-to-day variability and spatial distribution (above ground, depth below ground and subway line). Population-weighted station PM2.5 rankings were produced to understand the relative importance of concentrations at different stations and on different lines.ResultsThe PM2.5 mass in the LU (mean 88 μg m-3, median 28 μg m-3) was greater than at ambient background locations (mean 19 μg m-3, median 14 μg m-3) and roadside environments in central London (mean 22 μg m-3, median 14 μg m-3). Concentrations varied between lines and locations, with the deepest and shallowest submerged lines being the District (median 4 μg m-3) and Victoria (median 361 μg m-3 but up to 885 μg m-3). Broadly in agreement with other subway systems around the world, sampled LU PM2.5 comprised 47% iron oxide, 7% elemental carbon, 11% organic carbon, and 14% metallic and mineral oxides. Although a relationship between line depth and air quality inside the tube trains was evident, there were clear influences relating to the distance from cleaner outside air and the exchange with cabin air when the doors open. The passenger population-weighted exposure analysis demonstrated a method to identify stations that should be prioritised for remediation to improve air quality.ConclusionPM2.5 concentrations in the LU are many times higher than in other London transport Environments. Failure to include this environment in epidemiological studies of the relationship between PM2.5 and health in London is therefore likely to lead to a large exposure misclassification error. Given the significant contribution of underground PM2.5 to daily exposure, and the differences in composition compared to urban PM2.5, there is a clear need for well-designed studies to better understand the health effects of underground exposure.

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Robust prediction of hourly PM2.5 from meteorological data using LightGBM

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