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A Nomogram to Predict Disease-Free Survival Following Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy for Triple Negative Breast Cancer

ABSTRACT:

Background

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) is considered a standard treatment strategy for locally advanced triple negative breast cancer (TNBC). TNBC patients who achieve a pathologic complete response (pCR) are predicted to have a better prognosis while unfavorable chemo-sensitivity is still associated with a higher risk of disease relapse. The objective of this study was to construct a nomogram to predict disease-free survival (DFS) for TNBC patients following NACT.

Methods

A total of 165 TNBC patients who underwent standard NACT and surgery were retrospectively reviewed, and data on their clinicopathological factors before and after NACT were collected. Independent prognostic factors for DFS were identified by Cox regression based on lower Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). A nomogram to predict the 2-year and 5-year DFS following NACT for TNBC was constructed based on training cohort (n = 132) and validated by a validation cohort (n = 33).

Results

Either limited or full pCR (breast-only pCR, node-only pCR, or both-pCR) indicated significantly improved DFS and overall survival (OS) (p < 0.001). Lager residual tumor size (hazard ratio [HR] 1.175, p = 0.011) and the presence of lymphatic vessel invasion (LVI) (HR 3.168, p = 0.001) were identified as independent predictors of disease relapse in the training cohort. Five variables, including age, primary tumor size, histological grade, residual tumor size, and LVI were used to establish the nomogram. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.815, and calibration curves showed an acceptable consistency between the actual and nomogram-predicted 2-year and 5-year DFS. The proposed nomogram demonstrated superior predictive performance compared with Residual Cancer Burden (RCB) classification and the 8th American Joint Committee on Cancer Post Neoadjuvant Therapy Classification (AJCC ypTNM) staging system (area under the curve [AUC] for 2-year DFS: 0.870 vs. 0.758 vs. 0.711, respectively; AUC for 5-year DFS: 0.794 vs. 0.731 vs. 0.702, respectively) in the validation cohort.

Conclusions

The nomogram proposed in our study enabled to quantify the risk of disease relapse and demonstrated superior predictive performance than a survival predict instrument. It was an easy-to-use tool for clinicians to guide individualized surveillance of TNBC patients following standard NACT.

SUBMITTER: Zhu M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8566908 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background: To investigate whether the radiomics signature (Rad-score) of DCE-MRI images obtained in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) patients before neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) is associated with disease-free survival (DFS). Develop and validate an intuitive nomogram based on radiomics signatures, MRI findings, and clinicopathological variables to predict DFS. Methods: Patients (n = 150) from two hospitals who received NAC from August 2011 to May 2017 were diagnosed with TNBC by pathological biopsy, and follow-up through May 2020 was retrospectively analysed. Patients from one hospital (n = 109) were used as the training group, and patients from the other hospital (n = 41) were used as the validation group. ROIs were drawn on 1.5 T MRI T1W enhancement images of the whole volume of the tumour obtained with a 3D slicer. Radiomics signatures predicting DFS were identified, optimal cut-off value for Rad-score was determined, and the associations between DFS and radiomics signatures, MRI findings, and clinicopathological variables were analysed. A nomogram was developed and validated for individualized DFS estimation. Results: The median follow-up time was 53.5 months, and 45 of 150 (30.0%) patients experienced recurrence and metastasis. The optimum cut-off value of the Rad-score was 0.2528, which stratified patients into high- and low-risk groups for DFS in the training group (p<0.001) and was validated in the external validation group. Multivariate analysis identified three independent indicators: multifocal/centric disease status, pCR status, and Rad-score. A nomogram based on these factors showed discriminatory ability, the C-index of the model was 0.834 (95% CI, 0.761-0.907) and 0.868 (95% CI, 0.787-949) in the training and the validation groups, respectively, which is better than clinicoradiological nomogram(training group: C-index = 0.726, 95% CI = 0.709-0.743; validation group: C-index = 0.774,95% CI = 0.743-0.805). Conclusion: The Rad-score derived from preoperative MRI features is an independent biomarker for DFS prediction in patients with TNBC to NAC, and the combined radiomics nomogram improved individualized DFS estimation.

Project description:PurposeThis study aims to explore whether neoadjuvant chemotherapy with immunotherapy (NACI) leads to different tumor shrinkage patterns, based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), compared to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) alone in patients with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). Additionally, the study investigates the relationship between tumor shrinkage patterns and treatment efficacy was investigated.MethodsThis retrospective study included patients with TNBC patients receiving NAC or NACI from January 2019 until July 2021 at our center. Pre- and post-treatment MRI results were obtained for each patient, and tumor shrinkage patterns were classified into three categories as follows: 1) concentric shrinkage (CS); 2) diffuse decrease; and 3) no change. Tumor shrinkage patterns were compared between the NAC and NACI groups, and the relevance of the patterns to treatment efficacy was assessed.ResultsOf the 99 patients, 65 received NAC and 34 received NACI. The CS pattern was observed in 53% and 20% of patients in the NAC and NACI groups, respectively. Diffuse decrease pattern was observed in 36% and 68% of patients in the NAC and NACI groups. The association between the treatment regimens (NAC and NACI) and tumor shrinkage patterns was statistically significant (p = 0.004). The postoperative pathological complete response (pCR) rate was 45% and 82% in the NAC and NACI groups (p < 0.001), respectively. In the NACI group, 17% of patients with the CS pattern and 56% of those with the diffuse decrease pattern achieved pCR (p = 0.903). All tumor shrinkage patterns were associated with achieved a high pCR rate in the NACI group.ConclusionOur study demonstrates that the diffuse decrease pattern of tumor shrinkage is more common following NACI than that following NAC. Furthermore, our findings suggest that all tumor shrinkage patterns are associated with a high pCR rate in patients with TNBC treated with NACI.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04909554.