Dataset Information

Changing Trends of Cirrhotic and Noncirrhotic Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the Era of Directly-Acting Antiviral Agents

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION: The impact of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for hepatitis C virus (HCV) on burden of cirrhotic and noncirrhotic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has not been examined. We assessed recent trends in liver disease etiologies of HCC and proportion of noncirrhotic HCC since DAAs introduction.

METHODS:

Clinical characteristics including presence or absence of underlying cirrhosis were collected from 2,623 patients diagnosed with HCC between 2009 and 2019 at 2 large US centers. Logistic regression was performed to investigate the annual trends of HCC due to different liver diseases and proportions of noncirrhotic cases.

RESULTS:

In the DAA era (2014–2019), annual decline in HCV-HCC (odds ratio [OR] = 0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.88–0.99, P = 0.019), without change in trends of other liver diseases–related HCC, was observed. Annual increase in noncirrhotic HCC (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.03–1.23, P = 0.009) and decline in cirrhotic HCC (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.81–0.97, P = 0.009) along with similar trends for HCV-HCC—increase in noncirrhotic cases (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.08–1.69, P = 0.009) and decrease in cirrhotic cases (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.86–0.98, P = 0.012)—were observed during the DAA era. Compared with the pre-DAA era, HCC resection rate increased (10.7% vs 14.0%, P = 0.013) whereas liver transplantation rate decreased (15.1% vs 12.0%, P = 0.023) in the DAA era.

DISCUSSION:

Since introduction of DAAs, proportions of cirrhotic HCC have decreased, whereas proportions of noncirrhotic HCC have increased. These new trends were associated with change in utilization of liver resection and transplantation for HCC. The impact of changing patterns of DAA use on these trends will require further study.

SUBMITTER: Mathur K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8568358 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:ImportanceIn the US, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), primarily associated with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, is the fastest rising cause of cancer-related death. Wider use of highly effective direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) substantially reduces the burden of chronic HCV infection, but the subsequent impacts with HCV-associated HCC remain unknown.ObjectiveTo assess projected changes in the incidence rate of and surveillance burden for HCC in the era of DAA treatment for HCV.Design, setting, and participantsThis decision analytical model study was performed from January 2019 to February 2020, using an individual-level state-transition simulation model to simulate disease progression, screening, and different waves of antiviral treatments for HCV in the US from 2012 to 2040.InterventionsCurrent clinical management for chronic HCV infection.Main outcomes and measuresModel outcomes were projected temporal trends and age distribution of incident HCC cases and candidates for HCC surveillance among patients with viremia and patients with virologically cured HCV.ResultsThe simulation model projected that the annual incidence of HCC among patients with viremia and patients with virologically cured HCV will continue increasing to 24 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 18 000-31 000) cases until 2021. In patients with virologically cured HCV, incident HCC cases are projected to increase from 1000 (95% UI, 500-2100) in 2012 to the peak of 7000 (95% UI, 5000-9600) in 2031 with a subsequent decrease to 6000 (95% UI, 4300-8300) by 2040. The proportion of incident HCC cases that occur in individuals with virologically cured HCV is estimated to increase from 5.3% in 2012 to 45.8% in 2040. The number of candidates for HCC surveillance in the population with virologically cured HCV is projected to increase from 106 000 (95% UI, 70 000-178 000) in 2012 to the peak of 649 000 (95% UI, 512 000-824 000) in 2030 and decrease to 539 000 (95% UI, 421 000-687 000) by 2040, while the proportion of all candidates for surveillance who are virologically cured is estimated to increase from 8.5% to 64.6% during the same period. The average age of HCC incidence and surveillance candidates is estimated to increase from 55 in 2012 to 72 and 71, respectively, by 2040.Conclusions and relevanceThe results of this study suggest that the burden of HCC will shift from patients with viremia to patients with virologically cured HCV, and to older populations. Appropriate management may be warranted for early detection of HCC in patients who may no longer be receiving specialty care for liver conditions.

Project description:BACKGROUND & AIMS:It is unclear whether direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment-induced sustained virologic response (SVR) reduces the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with HCV infection. Therefore, in the current study, our aim was to determine the impact of DAA-induced SVR on HCC risk. METHODS:We identified 62,354 patients who initiated antiviral treatment in the Veterans Affairs (VA) national healthcare system from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2015, including 35,871 (58%) interferon (IFN)-only regimens, 4,535 (7.2%) DAA?+?IFN regimens, and 21,948 (35%) DAA-only regimens. We retrospectively followed patients until 15 June 2017 to identify incident cases of HCC. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to determine the association between SVR and HCC risk or between type of antiviral regimen (DAA-only vs. DAA?+?IFN vs. IFN-only) and HCC risk. RESULTS:We identified 3,271 incident cases of HCC diagnosed at least 180 days after initiation of antiviral treatment during a mean follow-up of 6.1 years. The incidence of HCC was highest in patients with cirrhosis and treatment failure (3.25 per 100 patient-years), followed by cirrhosis and SVR (1.97), no cirrhosis and treatment failure (0.87), and no cirrhosis and SVR (0.24). SVR was associated with a significantly decreased risk of HCC in multivariable models irrespective of whether the antiviral treatment was DAA-only (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] 0.29; 95% CI 0.23-0.37), DAA?+?IFN (AHR 0.48; 95% CI 0.32-0.73) or IFN-only (AHR 0.32; 95% CI 0.28-0.37). Receipt of a DAA-only or DAA?+?IFN regimen was not associated with increased HCC risk compared with receipt of an IFN-only regimen. CONCLUSIONS:DAA-induced SVR is associated with a 71% reduction in HCC risk. Treatment with DAAs is not associated with increased HCC risk compared with treatment with IFN. LAY SUMMARY:It was unclear whether direct-acting antiviral treatment-induced sustained virologic response reduces the risk of liver cancer in patients with HCV infection. We demonstrated that eradication of HCV infection with direct-acting antiviral agents reduces the risk of liver cancer by 71%.