A method to estimate probability of disease and vaccine efficacy from clinical trial immunogenicity data
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Dudasova J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8568947 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:The incidence rate and mortality rate of cervical cancer have steadily increased in young women in China. Therefore, it is critical to improve HPV vaccination rates, particularly for the younger population. There are currently five types of prophylactic vaccines in China: bivalent HPV vaccine (AS04-HPV-16/18), quadrivalent HPV vaccine, 9-valent HPV vaccine, homemade Escherichia coli-produced HPV bivalent vaccine, and Pichia pastoris produced HPV bivalent vaccine. All these five HPV vaccines have completed relevant clinical trials in China, and have been proven to be generally well-tolerated and immunogenic, efficacious against persistent HPV-related infections and genital precancerous lesions (data for 9-valent HPV vaccine is absent), and have demonstrated acceptable safety profiles, as previously shown in global studies. Given that the HPV vaccination rate in China is still very low, additional HPV vaccine coverage is needed to reduce the incidence and mortality rates of cervical cancer.
| S-EPMC10040563 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceGreater than 20% of cases and 0.4% of deaths from COVID-19 occur in children. Following demonstration of the safety and efficacy of the adjuvanted, recombinant spike protein vaccine NVX-CoV2373 in adults, the PREVENT-19 trial immediately expanded to adolescents.ObjectiveTo evaluate the safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy of NVX-CoV2373 in adolescents.Design, setting, and participantsThe NVX-CoV2373 vaccine was evaluated in adolescents aged 12 to 17 years in an expansion of PREVENT-19, a phase 3, randomized, observer-blinded, placebo-controlled multicenter clinical trial in the US. Participants were enrolled from April 26 to June 5, 2021, and the study is ongoing. A blinded crossover was implemented after 2 months of safety follow-up to offer active vaccine to all participants. Key exclusion criteria included known previous laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection or known immunosuppression. Of 2304 participants assessed for eligibility, 57 were excluded and 2247 were randomized.InterventionsParticipants were randomized 2:1 to 2 intramuscular injections of NVX-CoV2373 or placebo, 21 days apart.Main outcomes and measuresSerologic noninferiority of neutralizing antibody responses compared with those in young adults (aged 18-25 years) in PREVENT-19, protective efficacy against laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, and assessment of reactogenicity and safety.ResultsAmong 2232 participants (1487 NVX-CoV2373 and 745 placebo recipients), the mean (SD) age was 13.8 (1.4) years, 1172 (52.5%) were male, 1660 (74.4%) were White individuals, and 359 (16.1%) had had a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection at baseline. After vaccination, the ratio of neutralizing antibody geometric mean titers in adolescents compared with those in young adults was 1.5 (95% CI, 1.3-1.7). Twenty mild COVID-19 cases occurred after a median of 64 (IQR, 57-69) days of follow-up, including 6 among NVX-CoV2373 recipients (incidence, 2.90 [95% CI, 1.31-6.46] cases per 100 person-years) and 14 among placebo recipients (incidence, 14.20 [95% CI, 8.42-23.93] cases per 100 person-years), yielding a vaccine efficacy of 79.5% (95% CI, 46.8%-92.1%). Vaccine efficacy for the Delta variant (the only viral variant identified by sequencing [n = 11]) was 82.0% (95% CI, 32.4%-95.2%). Reactogenicity was largely mild to moderate and transient, with a trend toward greater frequency after the second dose of NVX-CoV2373. Serious adverse events were rare and balanced between treatments. No adverse events led to study discontinuation.Conclusions and relevanceThe findings of this randomized clinical trial indicate that NVX-CoV2373 is safe, immunogenic, and efficacious in preventing COVID-19, including the predominant Delta variant, in adolescents.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04611802.
| S-EPMC10536880 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The vaccination campaign against SARS-CoV-2 relies on the world-wide availability of effective vaccines, with a potential need of 20 billion vaccine doses to fully vaccinate the world population. To reach this goal, the manufacturing and logistic processes should be affordable to all countries, irrespective of economical and climatic conditions. Outer membrane vesicles (OMVs) are bacterial-derived vesicles that can be engineered to incorporate heterologous antigens. Given the inherent adjuvanticity, such modified OMVs can be used as vaccines to induce potent immune responses against the associated proteins. Here, we show that OMVs engineered to incorporate peptides derived from the receptor binding motif (RBM) of the spike protein from SARS-CoV-2 elicit an effective immune response in vaccinated mice, resulting in the production of neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) with a titre higher than 1:300. The immunity induced by the vaccine is sufficient to protect the animals from intranasal challenge with SARS-CoV-2, preventing both virus replication in the lungs and the pathology associated with virus infection. Furthermore, we show that OMVs can be effectively decorated with the RBM of the Omicron BA.1 variant and that such engineered OMVs induce nAbs against Omicron BA.1 and BA.5, as measured using the pseudovirus neutralization infectivity assay. Importantly, we show that the RBM438-509 ancestral-OMVs elicited antibodies which efficiently neutralize in vitro both the homologous ancestral strain, the Omicron BA.1 and BA.5 variants with a neutralization titre ranging from 1:100 to 1:1500, suggesting its potential use as a vaccine targeting diverse SARS-CoV-2 variants. Altogether, given the convenience associated with the ease of engineering, production and distribution, our results demonstrate that OMV-based SARS-CoV-2 vaccines can be a crucial addition to the vaccines currently available.
| S-EPMC10610814 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The vaccination campaign against SARS-CoV-2 relies on the world-wide availability of effective vaccines, with a potential need of 20 billion vaccine doses to fully vaccinate the world population. To reach this goal, the manufacturing and logistic processes should be affordable to all countries, irrespectively of economical and climatic conditions. Outer membrane vesicles (OMV) are bacterial-derived vesicles that can be engineered to incorporate heterologous antigens. Given the inherent adjuvanticity, such modified OMV can be used as vaccine to induce potent immune responses against the associated protein. Here we show that OMVs engineered to incorporate peptides derived from the receptor binding motif (RBM) of the spike protein from SARS-CoV-2 elicit an effective immune response in vaccinated mice, resulting in the production of neutralizing antibodies (nAbs). The immunity induced by the vaccine is sufficient to protect the animals from intranasal challenge with SARS-CoV-2, preventing both virus replication in the lungs and the pathology associated with virus infection. Furthermore, we show that OMVs can be effectively decorated with the RBM of the Omicron BA.1 variant and that such engineered OMVs induced nAbs against Omicron BA.1 and BA.5, as judged by pseudovirus infectivity assay. Importantly, we show that the RBM438-509 ancestral-OMVs elicited antibodies which efficiently neutralized in vitro both the homologous ancestral strain, the Omicron BA.1 and BA.5 variants, suggesting its potential use as a pan SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Altogether, given the convenience associated with ease of engineering, production and distribution, our results demonstrate that OMV-based SARS-CoV-2 vaccines can be a crucial addition to the vaccines currently available.
| S-EPMC10246226 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections are a serious threat in intensive care units (ICUs). The aim of this confirmatory, randomized, multicenter, placebo-controlled, double-blind, phase 2/3 study was to assess the efficacy, immunogenicity, and safety of IC43 recombinant Pseudomonas aeruginosa vaccine in non-surgical ICU patients. METHODS:Eight hundred patients aged 18 to 80 years admitted to the ICU with expected need for mechanical ventilation for ≥ 48 h were randomized 1:1 to either IC43 100 μg or saline placebo, given in two vaccinations 7 days apart. The primary efficacy endpoint was all-cause mortality in patients 28 days after the first vaccination. Immunogenicity and safety were also evaluated. FINDINGS:All-cause mortality rates at day 28 were 29.2% vs 27.7% in the IC43 and placebo groups, respectively (P = .67). Overall survival (Kaplan-Meier survival estimates, P = .46) and proportion of patients with ≥ one confirmed P. aeruginosa invasive infection or respiratory tract infection also did not differ significantly between both groups. The geometric mean fold increase in OprF/I titers was 1.5 after the first vaccination, 20 at day 28, after the second vaccination, and 2.9 at day 180. Significantly more patients in the placebo group (96.5%) had ≥ one adverse event (AE) versus the IC43 100 μg group (93.1%) (P = .04). The most frequently reported severe AEs in the IC43 and placebo groups were respiratory failure (6.9% vs 5.7%, respectively), septic shock (4.1% vs 6.5%), cardiac arrest (4.3% vs 5.7%), multiorgan failure (4.6% vs 5.5%), and sepsis (4.6% vs 4.2%). No related serious AEs were reported in the IC43 group. INTERPRETATION:The IC43 100 μg vaccine was well tolerated in this large population of medically ill, mechanically ventilated patients. The vaccine achieved high immunogenicity but provided no clinical benefit over placebo in terms of overall mortality. TRIAL REGISTRATION:https://clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01563263). Registration was sent to ClinicalTrials.gov on March 14, 2012, but posted by ClinicalTrials.gov on March 26, 2012. The first subject was included in the trial on March 22, 2012.
| S-EPMC7057595 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine targets the circumsporozoite protein, inducing antibodies associated with the prevention of Plasmodium falciparum infection. We assessed the association between anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres and the magnitude and duration of vaccine efficacy using data from a phase 3 trial done between 2009 and 2014.MethodsUsing data from 8922 African children aged 5-17 months and 6537 African infants aged 6-12 weeks at first vaccination, we analysed the determinants of immunogenicity after RTS,S/AS01 vaccination with or without a booster dose. We assessed the association between the incidence of clinical malaria and anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres using a model of anti-circumsporozoite antibody dynamics and the natural acquisition of protective immunity over time.FindingsRTS,S/AS01-induced anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres were greater in children aged 5-17 months than in those aged 6-12 weeks. Pre-vaccination anti-circumsporozoite titres were associated with lower immunogenicity in children aged 6-12 weeks and higher immunogenicity in those aged 5-17 months. The immunogenicity of the booster dose was strongly associated with immunogenicity after primary vaccination. Anti-circumsporozoite titres wane according to a biphasic exponential distribution. In participants aged 5-17 months, the half-life of the short-lived component of the antibody response was 45 days (95% credible interval 42-48) and that of the long-lived component was 591 days (557-632). After primary vaccination 12% (11-13) of the response was estimated to be long-lived, rising to 30% (28-32%) after a booster dose. An anti-circumsporozoite antibody titre of 121 EU/mL (98-153) was estimated to prevent 50% of infections. Waning anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres predict the duration of efficacy against clinical malaria across different age categories and transmission intensities, and efficacy wanes more rapidly at higher transmission intensity.InterpretationAnti-circumsporozoite antibody titres are a surrogate of protection for the magnitude and duration of RTS,S/AS01 efficacy, with or without a booster dose, providing a valuable surrogate of effectiveness for new RTS,S formulations in the age groups considered.FundingUK Medical Research Council.
| S-EPMC4655306 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:The high cost and insufficient supply of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines have slowed the pace of controlling cervical cancer. A phase III clinical trial was conducted to evaluate the efficacy, safety, and immunogenicity of a novel Escherichia coli-produced bivalent HPV-16/18 vaccine. METHODS:A multicenter, randomized, double-blind trial started on November 22, 2012 in China. In total, 7372 eligible women aged 18-45?years were age-stratified and randomly assigned to receive three doses of the test or control (hepatitis E) vaccine at months 0, 1, and 6. Co-primary endpoints included high-grade genital lesions and persistent infection (over 6?months) associated with HPV-16/18. The primary analysis was performed on a per-protocol susceptible population of individuals who were negative for relevant HPV type-specific neutralizing antibodies (at day 0) and DNA (at day 0 through month 7) and who received three doses of the vaccine. This report presents data from a prespecified interim analysis used for regulatory submission. RESULTS:In the per-protocol cohort, the efficacies against high-grade genital lesions and persistent infection were 100.0% (95% confidence interval = 55.6% to 100.0%, 0 of 3306 in the vaccine group vs 10 of 3296 in the control group) and 97.8% (95% confidence interval = 87.1% to 99.9%, 1 of 3240 vs 45 of 3246), respectively. The side effects were mild. No vaccine-related serious adverse events were noted. Robust antibody responses for both types were induced and persisted for at least 42?months. CONCLUSIONS:The E coli-produced HPV-16/18 vaccine is well tolerated and highly efficacious against HPV-16/18-associated high-grade genital lesions and persistent infection in women.
| S-EPMC7019098 | biostudies-literature
Project description:There is great need to express the impacts of chemicals found in the environment in terms of effects from alternative chemicals of interest. Methods currently employed in fields such as life-cycle assessment, risk assessment, mixtures toxicology, and pharmacology rely mostly on heuristic arguments to justify the use of linear relationships in the construction of "equivalency factors," which aim to model these concentration-concentration correlations. However, the use of linear models, even at low concentrations, oversimplifies the nonlinear nature of the concentration-response curve, therefore introducing error into calculations involving these factors. We address this problem by reporting a method to determine a concentration-concentration relationship between two chemicals based on the full extent of experimentally derived concentration-response curves. Although this method can be easily generalized, we develop and illustrate it from the perspective of toxicology, in which we provide equations relating the sigmoid and non-monotone, or "biphasic," responses typical of the field. The resulting concentration-concentration relationships are manifestly nonlinear for nearly any chemical level, even at the very low concentrations common to environmental measurements. We demonstrate the method using real-world examples of toxicological data which may exhibit sigmoid and biphasic mortality curves. Finally, we use our models to calculate equivalency factors, and show that traditional results are recovered only when the concentration-response curves are "parallel," which has been noted before, but we make formal here by providing mathematical conditions on the validity of this approach.
| S-EPMC4497723 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAlthough the killed whole-cell and live attenuated plague vaccine have been licensed, they are rarely used today because of toxicities, limited evidence of efficacy against plague, poor immune persistence required booster immunization every year, and limited commercial availability. This study was a randomized phase 2a clinical trial aimed to evaluating the immunogenicity and safety of a novel subunit plague vaccine.Methods240 healthy adults aged 18-55 y were enrolled and randomly assigned at a ratio of 1:1 to receive 2 doses of 15 or 30 mcg vaccine at a 28-day interval between doses. Blood samples were collected at day 0, 28 and 56. Adverse events were collected during the first 28 d after each vaccination. Serious Adverse Event was observed throughout the study period.Results239 participants received the first dose at day 0 and 238 received the second dose at day 28. Antibodies to envelope antigen faction 1 (F1) and recombinant virulence antigen (rV) were increased at day 28, and boosted significantly at day 56. For anti-F1 antibodies, geometric mean titer (GMT) and geometric mean fold increase (GMFI) were significantly higher in 30 mcg group than in the 15 mcg group(each P1< 0.05 at day 28 and each P1< 0.001 at day 56), with similar seroconversion rate of antibodies between 15 and 30 mcg group at both of the 2 time points. For anti-rV antibodies, seroconversion rate at day 28 in 30 mcg group was higher than that in 15 mcg group. However, GMT and GMFI of anti-rV antibodies were increased to approximately the same levels in the 2 groups. Similar booster immune response was also noticed in both groups at day 56. The injections were well tolerated, with mainly mild or moderate local and systemic adverse reactions (lower than grad 3). The proportion of pain at injection site was higher in 30 mcg group. None of SAEs were reported during 56 d.ConclusionThe plague vaccine comprised of F1 and rV antigens showed good safety and immunogenicity in adults aged 18-55 y old. The data show that the 30 mcg formulation is generally more immunogenic than the 15 mcg formulation, and represents the preferred formulation for further clinical development. It will be important to evaluate the long-term efficacy for appropriate formulations of the plague subunit vaccine.
| S-EPMC5027722 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMessenger RNA (mRNA)-1273 vaccine demonstrated 93.2% efficacy against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the Coronavirus Efficacy (COVE) trial. The humoral immunogenicity results are now reported.MethodsParticipants received 2 mRNA-1273 (100 µg) or placebo injections, 28 days apart. Immune responses were evaluated in a prespecified, randomly selected per-protocol immunogenicity population (n = 272 placebo; n = 1185 mRNA-1273). Serum binding antibodies (bAbs) and neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-spike protein were assessed at days 1, 29, and 57 by baseline SARS-CoV-2-negative (n = 1197) and SARS-CoV-2-positive (n = 260) status, age, and sex.ResultsSARS-CoV-2-negative vaccinees had bAb geometric mean AU/mL levels of 35 753 at day 29 that increased to 316 448 at day 57 and nAb inhibitory dilution 50% titers of 55 at day 29 that rose to 1081 at day 57. In SARS-CoV-2-positive vacinees, the first mRNA-1273 injection elicited bAb and nAb levels that were 11-fold (410 049) and 27-fold (1479) higher than in SARS-CoV-2-negative vaccinees, respectively, and were comparable to levels after 2 injections in uninfected participants. Findings were generally consistent by age and sex.ConclusionsmRNA-1273 elicited robust serologic immune responses across age, sex, and SARS-CoV-2 status, consistent with its high COVID-19 efficacy. Higher immune responses in those previously infected support a booster-type effect. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT04470427.
| S-EPMC9213865 | biostudies-literature