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Assessing the drivers of syphilis among men who have sex with men in Switzerland reveals a key impact of screening frequency: A modelling study

ABSTRACT: Over the last decade, syphilis diagnoses among men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) have strongly increased in Europe. Understanding the drivers of the ongoing epidemic may aid to curb transmissions. In order to identify the drivers of syphilis transmission in MSM in Switzerland between 2006 and 2017 as well as the effect of potential interventions, we set up an epidemiological model stratified by syphilis stage, HIV-diagnosis, and behavioral factors to account for syphilis infectiousness and risk for transmission. In the main model, we used ‘reported non-steady partners’ (nsP) as the main proxy for sexual risk. We parameterized the model using data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, Swiss Voluntary Counselling and Testing center, cross-sectional surveys among the Swiss MSM population, and published syphilis notifications from the Federal Office of Public Health. The main model reproduced the increase in syphilis diagnoses from 168 cases in 2006 to 418 cases in 2017. It estimated that between 2006 and 2017, MSM with HIV diagnosis had 45.9 times the median syphilis incidence of MSM without HIV diagnosis. Defining risk as condomless anal intercourse with nsP decreased model accuracy (sum of squared weighted residuals, 378.8 vs. 148.3). Counterfactual scenarios suggested that increasing screening of MSM without HIV diagnosis and with nsP from once every two years to twice per year may reduce syphilis incidence (at most 12.8% reduction by 2017). Whereas, increasing screening among MSM with HIV diagnosis and with nsP from once per year to twice per year may substantially reduce syphilis incidence over time (at least 63.5% reduction by 2017). The model suggests that reporting nsP regardless of condom use is suitable for risk stratification when modelling syphilis transmission. More frequent screening of MSM with HIV diagnosis, particularly those with nsP may aid to curb syphilis transmission. Author summary Syphilis, one of the most common sexually transmitted infections, remains a major public health problem. Over the last decade, a rising number of diagnoses especially in men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) was observed in Western Europe and Northern America. In Switzerland, the number of syphilis diagnoses in MSM tripled between 2006 and 2017. In this study, we used a mathematical model to assess the drivers of this increase among MSM in Switzerland. Our model could reproduce the increase in syphilis diagnoses in both MSM with and without HIV diagnosis between 2006 and 2017. Based on this model we found that MSM with HIV diagnosis have an over 45 times higher syphilis incidence than MSM without HIV diagnosis. Furthermore, we found that reported sex with non-steady partners is a useful proxy of behavioral risk. Considering counterfactual scenarios, we showed that increasing the screening frequency for syphilis among MSM with HIV diagnosis and with non-steady partners from once a year to twice per year can reduce syphilis incidence by 63.5% to 99.2%.

SUBMITTER: Balakrishna S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8570495 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BACKGROUND:New HIV infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased in Switzerland since 2000 despite combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The objectives of this mathematical modelling study were: to describe the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland using national data; to explore the effects of hypothetical prevention scenarios; and to conduct a multivariate sensitivity analysis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:The model describes HIV transmission, progression and the effects of cART using differential equations. The model was fitted to Swiss HIV and AIDS surveillance data and twelve unknown parameters were estimated. Predicted numbers of diagnosed HIV infections and AIDS cases fitted the observed data well. By the end of 2010, an estimated 13.5% (95% CI 12.5, 14.6%) of all HIV-infected MSM were undiagnosed and accounted for 81.8% (95% CI 81.1, 82.4%) of new HIV infections. The transmission rate was at its lowest from 1995-1999, with a nadir of 46 incident HIV infections in 1999, but increased from 2000. The estimated number of new infections continued to increase to more than 250 in 2010, although the reproduction number was still below the epidemic threshold. Prevention scenarios included temporary reductions in risk behaviour, annual test and treat, and reduction in risk behaviour to levels observed earlier in the epidemic. These led to predicted reductions in new infections from 2 to 26% by 2020. Parameters related to disease progression and relative infectiousness at different HIV stages had the greatest influence on estimates of the net transmission rate. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:The model outputs suggest that the increase in HIV transmission amongst MSM in Switzerland is the result of continuing risky sexual behaviour, particularly by those unaware of their infection status. Long term reductions in the incidence of HIV infection in MSM in Switzerland will require increased and sustained uptake of effective interventions.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Men who have sex with men (MSM) bear a high burden of syphilis infection. Expanding syphilis testing to improve timely diagnosis and treatment is critical to improve syphilis control. However, syphilis testing rates remain low among MSM, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. We describe the protocol for a randomised controlled trial (RCT) to assess whether provision of syphilis self-testing services can increase the uptake of syphilis testing among MSM in China. METHODS:Four hundred forty-four high-risk MSM will be recruited online and randomized in a 1:1:1 ratio to (1) standard syphilis self-testing arm; (2) a self-testing arm program enhanced with crowdsourcing and a lottery-based incentive, and (3) a standard of care (control). Self-testing services include a free syphilis self-test kit through the mail at monthly intervals. Participants in the lottery incentive arm will additionally receive health promotion materials generated from an open crowdsourcing contest and be given a lottery draw with a 10% chance to win 100 RMB (approximately 15 US Dollars) upon confirmed completion of syphilis testing. Syphilis self-test kits have step-by-step instructions and an instructional video. This is a non-blinded, open-label, parallel RCT. Participants in each arm will be followed-up at three and 6 months through WeChat (a social media app like Facebook messenger). Confirmation of syphilis self-test use will be determined by requiring participants to submit a photo of the used test kit to study staff via secure data messaging. Both self-testing and facility-based testing will be ascertained by sending a secure photographic image of the completed kit through an existing digital platform. The primary outcome is the proportion of participants who tested for syphilis in the past 3 months. DISCUSSION:Findings from this study will provide much needed insight on the impact of syphilis self-testing on promoting routine syphilis screening among MSM. The findings will also contribute to our understanding of the safety, effectiveness and acceptability of syphilis self-testing. These findings will have important implications for self-testing policy, both in China and internationally. TRIAL REGISTRATION:ChiCTR1900022409 (10 April, 2019).

Project description:ObjectivesThe WHO called for the elimination of maternal-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV and syphilis, a harmonised approach for the improvement of health outcomes for mothers and children. Testing early in pregnancy, treating seropositive pregnant women and preventing syphilis reinfection can prevent MTCT of HIV and syphilis. We assessed the health and economic outcomes of a dual testing strategy in a simulated cohort of 100 000 antenatal care patients in Malawi.MethodsWe compared four screening algorithms: (1) HIV rapid test only, (2) dual HIV and syphilis rapid tests, (3) single rapid tests for HIV and syphilis and (4) HIV rapid and syphilis laboratory tests. We calculated the expected number of adverse pregnancy outcomes, the expected costs and the expected newborn disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for each screening algorithm. The estimated costs and DALYs for each screening algorithm were assessed from a societal perspective using Markov progression models. Additionally, we conducted a Monte Carlo multiway sensitivity analysis, allowing for ranges of inputs.ResultsOur cohort decision model predicted the lowest number of adverse pregnancy outcomes in the dual HIV and syphilis rapid test strategy. Additionally, from the societal perspective, the costs of prevention and care using a dual HIV and syphilis rapid testing strategy was both the least costly ($226.92 per pregnancy) and resulted in the fewest DALYs (116 639) per 100 000 pregnancies. In the Monte Carlo simulation the dual HIV and syphilis algorithm was always cost saving and almost always reduced DALYs compared with HIV testing alone.ConclusionsThe results of the cost-effectiveness analysis showed that a dual HIV and syphilis test was cost saving compared with all other screening strategies. Updating existing prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission programmes in Malawi and similar countries to include dual rapid testing for HIV and syphilis is likely to be advantageous.

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Assessing the drivers of syphilis among men who have sex with men in Switzerland reveals a key impact of screening frequency: A modelling study

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