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Fewer patients receive recommendations for pharmacotherapy in primary prevention using the 2018 atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator.

ABSTRACT: Shortly after the introduction of the 2013 original Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE), an overestimation of risk was suggested. As such, the updated 2018 PCE was developed to more accurately assess atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk in the population. Hence, this study aims to compare drug prescribing recommendations in a large, real-world patient population, depending on which PCE is used to estimate 10-year ASCVD risk. This retrospective cohort study identified 20,843 patients aged between 40 and 75 years with no previous ASCVD. The 10-year ASCVD risk score was assessed by using both PCE. Patients were assigned to the four risk categories according to the 2018 ACC/AHA guideline. The percentage of patients qualifying for guideline-recommended primary prevention with statins and/or anti-hypertensives were compared between both PCE. Risk reclassification occurred in 26.7% of patients overall (n = 5571), of which 98.1% (n = 5466) were assigned to lower risk categories with the updated PCE. Non-diabetic (14.0%) patients no longer met the threshold for recommending statins as primary prevention with the updated PCE. Likewise, 13.8% of patients with stage I hypertension no longer met the threshold for recommending antihypertensive drugs with the updated PCE. In conclusion, risk reclassification occurred among 26.7% of patients overall, mostly due to lower risk categories assigned by the updated PCE. Up to 14.0% of patients no longer met the threshold for recommending statin therapy and/or antihypertensive drugs by using the updated PCE. These findings suggest that using the updated PCE could translate into fewer patients receiving pharmacotherapy for ASCVD primary prevention.

SUBMITTER: Campos-Staffico AM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8573994 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Statin therapy is the cornerstone of preventing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), primarily by reducing low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels. Optimal statin therapy decisions rely on shared decision making and may be uncertain for a given patient. In areas of clinical uncertainty, personalized approaches based on real-world data may help inform treatment decisions. We sought to develop a personalized statin recommendation approach for primary ASCVD prevention based on historical real-world outcomes in similar patients. Our retrospective cohort included adults from a large Northern California electronic health record (EHR) aged 40-79 years with no prior cardiovascular disease or statin use. The cohort was split into training and test sets. Weighted-K-nearest-neighbor (wKNN) regression models were used to identify historical EHR patients similar to a candidate patient. We modeled four statin decisions for each patient: none, low-intensity, moderate-intensity, and high-intensity. For each candidate patient, the algorithm recommended the statin decision that was associated with the greatest percentage reduction in LDL-C after 1 year in similar patients. The overall cohort consisted of 50,576 patients (age 54.6 ± 9.8 years) with 55% female, 48% non-Hispanic White, 32% Asian, and 7.4% Hispanic patients. Among 8383 test-set patients, 52%, 44%, and 4% were recommended high-, moderate-, and low-intensity statins, respectively, for a maximum predicted average 1-yr LDL-C reduction of 16.9%, 20.4%, and 14.9%, in each group, respectively. Overall, using aggregate EHR data, a personalized statin recommendation approach identified the statin intensity associated with the greatest LDL-C reduction in historical patients similar to a candidate patient. Recommendations included low- or moderate-intensity statins for maximum LDL-C lowering in nearly half the test set, which is discordant with their expected guideline-based efficacy. A data-driven personalized statin recommendation approach may inform shared decision making in areas of uncertainty, and highlight unexpected efficacy-effectiveness gaps.

Project description:ImportanceThe Million Hearts initiative emphasizes ABCS (aspirin for high-risk patients, blood pressure [BP] control, cholesterol level management, and smoking cessation). Evidence of the effects of drugs used to achieve ABCS has not been synthesized comprehensively in the prevention of primary atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD).ObjectiveTo compare the efficacy and safety of aspirin, BP-lowering therapy, statins, and tobacco cessation drugs for fatal and nonfatal ASCVD outcomes in primary ASCVD prevention.Evidence reviewStructured search of the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE), Health Technology Assessment Database (HTA), MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PROSPERO International Prospective Systematic Review Trial Register to identify systematic reviews published from January 1, 2005, to June 17, 2015, that reported the effect of aspirin, BP-lowering therapy, statin, or tobacco cessation drugs on ASCVD events in individuals without prevalent ASCVD. Additional studies were identified by searching the reference lists of included systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and health technology assessment reports. Reviews were selected according to predefined criteria and appraised for methodologic quality using the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) tool (range, 0-11). Studies were independently reviewed for key participant and intervention characteristics. Outcomes that were meta-analyzed in each included review were extracted. Qualitative synthesis was performed, and data were analyzed from July 2 to August 13, 2015.FindingsFrom a total of 1967 reports, 35 systematic reviews of randomized clinical trials were identified, including 15 reviews of aspirin, 4 reviews of BP-lowering therapy, 12 reviews of statins, and 4 reviews of tobacco cessation drugs. Methodologic quality varied, but 30 reviews had AMSTAR ratings of 5 or higher. Compared with placebo, aspirin (relative risk [RR], 0.90; 95% CI, 0.85-0.96) and statins (RR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.70-0.81) reduced the risk for ASCVD. Compared with placebo, BP-lowering therapy reduced the risk for coronary heart disease (RR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79-0.90) and stroke (RR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.56-0.73). Tobacco cessation drugs increased the odds of continued abstinence at 6 months (odds ratio range, 1.82 [95% CI, 1.60-2.06] to 2.88 [95% CI, 2.40-3.47]), but the direct effects on ASCVD were poorly reported. Aspirin increased the risk for major bleeding (RR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.30-1.82), and statins did not increase overall risk for adverse effects (RR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.97-1.03). Adverse effects of BP-lowering therapy and tobacco cessation drugs were poorly reported.Conclusions and relevanceThis overview demonstrates high-quality evidence to support aspirin, BP-lowering therapy, and statins for primary ASCVD prevention and tobacco cessation drugs for smoking cessation. Treatment effects of each drug can be used to enrich discussions between health care professionals and patients in primary ASCVD prevention.

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Fewer patients receive recommendations for pharmacotherapy in primary prevention using the 2018 atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimator.

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