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Simulation of future COVID-19 epidemic by vaccination coverage scenarios in Japan.

ABSTRACT: COVID-19 continues to impose significant morbidity and mortality in Japan even after implementing the vaccination program. It would remain elusive if restrictions for its mitigation were to be lifted or relaxed in the future. A simulation study that explored possible vaccination coverage scenarios and changes in the intensity of nonpharmaceutical intervention restrictions was performed to assess the impact of COVID-19 based on death count. Assuming the basic reproduction number of circulating viruses was 5.0, vaccines could prevent 90% of infections and 95% of deaths, and the vaccination coverage rate was high (75%, 80%, and 90% in people aged 12-39 years, 40-59 years, ≥60 years, respectively), approximately 50 000 deaths would occur over 150 days in Japan if all restrictions were lifted. Most deaths would occur among older adults, even if their vaccination coverage was assumed to be especially high. A low vaccination coverage scenario (45%, 60%, and 80% in people aged 12-39 years, 40-59 years, ≥60 years, respectively) would require periodic implementation of strict measures even if the modified lifestyle observed in 2020 was sustained and vaccines were very effective. Some restrictions could be relaxed under high vaccination coverage. However, in the worst-case scenario where vaccines had decreased efficacy, as we have observed for the Delta variant, and people lived a relaxed lifestyle, our simulation suggests that even high vaccination coverage would occasionally require strict measures. We should carefully explore a manageable degree of restrictions and their relaxation. We will have to keep bracing for occasional surges of COVID-19 infection, which could lead to strict measures, such as those under a state of emergency. Such strategies are essential even after a wide rollout of vaccination.

SUBMITTER: Furuse Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8576362 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundDespite the increasing vaccination rates against SARS-CoV‑2, there is a risk of a renewed wave of infections in autumn 2021 due to the high seasonality of the pathogen, with the associated renewed possible heavy burden on intensive care. In the following manuscript we simulated different scenarios using defined mathematical models to estimate the burden of intensive care treatment by COVID-19 patients within certain limits during the coming autumn.MethodsThe simulation of the scenarios uses a stationary model supplemented by the effect of vaccinations. The age group-specific risk profile for intensive care unit (ICU)-associated disease progression is calculated using third wave ICU admission data from sentinel hospitals, local DIVI registry occupancy data and the corresponding local incidence rates by linear regression with time lag. We simulated vaccination rates of 15% for the over 18-year-old cohort, 70% for the 15-34 year cohort, 75%/80%/85% for the 35-59 year cohort and 85%/90%/95% for the over 60-year-old cohort. The simulations take into account that vaccination provides 100% protection against disease progression requiring intensive care. Regarding protection against infection in vaccinated persons the simulations are depicted for the scenario of 70% protection against infection in vaccinated persons and for the scenario of 85% protection against infection in vaccinated persons.ResultsThe incidence is proportional to ICU bed occupancy. The proportionality factor is higher than in the second and third waves, so that comparable ICU bed occupancy is only achieved at a higher incidence. A 10% increase in vaccination rates of the over 35-year-olds to 85% and of the over 60-year-olds to 95% leads to a significant reduction in ICU bed occupancy.DiscussionThere will continue to be a close and linear relationship between SARS-CoV‑2 incidence and ICU bed occupancy in the coming months. Even above incidences of 200/100,000 a considerable burden of ICUs with more than 3000 COVID-19 patients can be expected again, unless the vaccination rate is significantly increased. A few percentage points in the vaccination rate have a significant impact on potential ICU occupancy in the autumn, so efforts to increase vaccination acceptance should be a priority in the coming weeks. For intensive care medicine, the vaccination rate of those over 35 years of age is crucial.

Project description:ObjectivesThis study aims to investigate the factors influencing parental willingness in COVID-19 vaccination for children in Japan in light of the introduction of pediatric vaccines.MethodsAn online survey was conducted in February 2022, coinciding with the imminent start of pediatric COVID-19 vaccinations in Japan. It assessed attitudes toward vaccine uptake and included questions about health-related attributes, psychological considerations, and sources of COVID-19 information. Data from 2,419 respondents who had children under the age of 12 were analyzed using multinomial logistic regression to identify factors associated with parental willingness towards COVID-19 vaccination for children. The outcomes were "agree" (in favor of vaccination), "not sure" (undecided), with "disagree" (against vaccination) as the reference category.ResultsAmong participants supportive of vaccination ("agree" compared to the "disagree" reference), salient determinants included: gender (Men in reference to women: odds ratio [OR] 1.54; 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.11-2.15), highest educational level (Junior College/Vocational in reference to under high school: OR 0.61; 95 % CI 0.40-0.93, Bachelor's /Master's/Doctoral degree in reference to under high school: OR 0.59; 95 % CI 0.42-0.84), perception of benefits of COVID-19 vaccination (Significant in reference to Insignificant: OR 2.04; 95 % CI 1.26-3.28), perception of risks of COVID-19 vaccination (Significant in reference to Insignificant: OR 0.28; 95 % CI 0.19-0.42, Neutral in reference to Insignificant: OR 0.48; 95 % CI 0.33-0.71), the number of referenced information sources utilized for COVID-19 was associated with attitudes towards children's vaccination (OR 1.02; 95 % CI 1.00-1.04).ConclusionThe study highlights the multifaceted factors influencing parents' COVID-19 vaccination attitudes for their children, encompassing socioeconomic, health, psychological, and informational aspects. Factors like cautious information gathering, vaccine concerns and diverse referenced information sources impact willingness. To facilitate informed decision-making, essential measures include government risk communication, widespread vaccine information dissemination, and enhancing parents' health information accessibility and evaluation skills are important.

Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic has caused (and continues to cause) severe disruption in global and local economies and has forced countries, societies, and individuals to adapt quickly to the unprecedented and unpredictable situations. Despite the obvious negative consequences of the pandemic, many have called for efforts to identify transformative opportunities for sustainable development throughout this disorderly time. In the present paper, we explore such potential opportunities in the context of an interdisciplinary, international research project, which is focusing on sustainable marine management in biosphere reserves and marine parks in Southeast Asia. During a virtual workshop conducted as part of the GCRF (Government's Global Challenges Research Fund) Blue Communities Project, future scenarios were developed depicting the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on five case study sites. All of these sites are in areas of internationally recognized outstanding ecological value (Taka Bonerate Kepulauan-Selayar Biosphere Reserve, Indonesia; Tun Mustapha Park, Sabah, Malaysia; Palawan Biosphere Reserve, Philippines; North Devon Biosphere Reserve, United Kingdom; Cu Lao Cham-Hoi An Biosphere Reserve, Vietnam). At the macro-level, economies, governance structures, and societal norms are undergoing big changes. At the micro-level, the livelihoods, lifestyles, and backyards of local residents have to adapt. Collaboratively, we explored how COVID-19 posed challenges in our five case study sites, but we also focused on the potential COVID-19-related windows of opportunity for future sustainable development. Opportunities could be identified in all three pillars of sustainable development: the environment, the society, and the economy. Although remarkable similarities can be found across all five sites, we conclude that there cannot be a "one-size-fits-all" solution to turn the tide toward achieving sustainable development. Just as before the pandemic, sustainable development starts with engaging with and understanding local environments, challenges, and situations; building on local knowledge; and developing tailor-made solutions for the communities in situ.

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Simulation of future COVID-19 epidemic by vaccination coverage scenarios in Japan.

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