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Negative-Binomial and quasi-poisson regressions between COVID-19, mobility and environment in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

ABSTRACT: Brazil, the country most impacted by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the southern hemisphere, use intensive care admissions per day, mobility and other indices to monitor quarantines and prevent the transmissions of SARS-CoV-2. In this study we quantified the associations between residential mobility index (RMI), air pollution, meteorology, and daily cases and deaths of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil. We applied a semiparametric generalized additive model (GAM) to estimate: 1) the association between RMI and COVID-19, accounting for ambient particulate matter (PM_2.5), ozone (O₃), relative humidity, temperature and delayed exposure between 4 and 21 days, and 2) the association between COVID-19 and exposure to for ambient particulate matter (PM_2.5), ozone (O₃), accounting for relative humidity, temperature and mobility. We found that an RMI of 45.28% results in 1212 cases (95% CI: 1189 to 1235) and 44 deaths (95% CI: 40 to 47). Increasing the isolation from 45.28% to 50% would avoid 438 cases and 21 deaths. Also, we found that an increment of 10 μg⋅m^-³ of PM_2.5 results in a risk of 1.140 (95% CI: 1.021 to 1.274) for cases and 1.086 (95% CI: 1.008 to 1.170) for deaths, while O₃ produces a relative risk of 1.075 (95% CI: 1.006 to 1.150) for cases and 1.063 (95% CI: 1.006 to 1.124) for deaths, respectively. We compared our results with observations and literature review, finding well agreement. Policymakers can use such mobility indices as tools to control social distance activities. Spatial distancing is an important factor to control COVID-19, however, measuring face-mask usage would enhance the understanding the pandemic dynamic. Small increments of air pollution result in an increased number of COVID-19 cases and deaths.

SUBMITTER: Ibarra-Espinosa S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8577054 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:To estimate the prevalence of one month psychotropic drug use in São Paulo, Brazil, and to assess the gap treatment between the presence of mental disorders and psychotropic drug users.A probabilistic sample of non-institutionalized individuals from the general population of São Paulo (n = 2336; turnout: 84.5%) who were 15 years or older were interviewed by a trained research staff, applying the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 2.1 (CIDI WHO) (depression, anxiety-phobia, OCD\PTSD, alcoholism sections), and an inventory investigating psychotropic drug use during the 12-month and one-month periods immediately preceding the interview. Logistic models were fitted to investigate associations between psychotropic drug use as well as socio-demographic and clinical variables.The one month prevalence of psychotropic drug use in São Paulo was 5.89%, the most commonly used drugs were antidepressants (3.15%) and tranquilizers (2.67%). A higher consumption of psychotropic drugs (overall, antidepressants and tranquilizers) was observed among women (OR:2.42), older individuals (OR:1.04), individuals with higher levels of formal education (1.06), and individuals with a family (OR:2.29) or personal history of mental illness (OR:3.27). The main psychotropic drug prescribers were psychiatrists (41%), followed by general practitioners (30%); 60% of psychotropic drugs were obtained through a government-run dispensing program. Most individuals who obtained a positive diagnosis on the CIDI 2.1 during the previous month were not using psychotropic medication (85%). Among individuals with a diagnosis of moderate to severe depression, 67.5% were not on any pharmacological treatment.There is a change in the type of psychotropic more often used in São Paulo, from benzodiazepines to antidepressants, this event is observed in different cultures. The prevalence of use is similar to other developing countries. Most of the patients presenting a psychiatric illness in the month prior to testing were not receiving any sort of psychiatric medication. This may be explained by a failure to identify cases in primary care, which could be improved (and access to treatment could be facilitated) if professionals received more specialized training in managing cases with mental health problems.

Project description:BackgroundThe odds ratio (OR) is used as an important metric of comparison of two or more groups in many biomedical applications when the data measure the presence or absence of an event or represent the frequency of its occurrence. In the latter case, researchers often dichotomize the count data into binary form and apply the well-known logistic regression technique to estimate the OR. In the process of dichotomizing the data, however, information is lost about the underlying counts which can reduce the precision of inferences on the OR.MethodsWe propose analyzing the count data directly using regression models with the log odds link function. With this approach, the parameter estimates in the model have the exact same interpretation as in a logistic regression of the dichotomized data, yielding comparable estimates of the OR. We prove analytically, using the Fisher information matrix, that our approach produces more precise estimates of the OR than logistic regression of the dichotomized data. We also show the gains in precision using simulation studies and real-world datasets. We focus on three related distributions for count data: geometric, Poisson, and negative binomial.ResultsIn simulation studies, confidence intervals for the OR were 56-65% as wide (geometric model), 75-79% as wide (Poisson model), and 61-69% as wide (negative binomial model) as the corresponding interval from a logistic regression produced by dichotomizing the data. When we analyzed existing datasets using our approach, we found that confidence intervals for the OR could be up to 64% shorter (36% as wide) compared to if the data had been dichotomized and analyzed using logistic regression.ConclusionsMore precise estimates of the OR can be obtained directly from the count data by using the log odds link function. This analytic approach is easy to implement in software packages that are capable of fitting generalized linear models or of maximizing user-defined likelihood functions.

Project description:Roadkill estimates for different species and species groups are available for many countries and regions. However, there is a lack of information from tropical countries, including from Latin America. In this study, we analyzed medium and large-sized mammal roadkill data from 18 toll road companies (TRC) in São Paulo State (6,580 km of monitored toll roads), Brazil. We extrapolated these roadkill numbers to the entire system of major paved roads in the State (36,503 km). The TRC collected mammal-road- mortality data both before (2-lanes) and after (4-lanes) road reconstruction. We used the "before" data from the TRC to estimate annual mammal-road-mortality along 2-lane roads that remained public roads. Combined with the data for the new 4-lane highways, this allowed us to estimate annual mammal road mortality for all the paved roads in the State. During 10 years of roadkill monitoring along toll roads, a total of 37,744 roadkilled mammals were recorded, representing a total of 32 medium to large-sized mammal species (average number of roadkilled individuals/year = 3,774 ± 1,159; min = 1,932; max = 5,369; 0.6 individuals roadkilled/km/year). Most roadkilled species were common generalists, but there were also relatively high roadkill numbers of threatened and endangered species (4.3% of the data), which is a serious conservation concern. Most of the roadkill was reported occurred during the nocturnal period (66%, n = 14,189) and in the rainy months (October-March) (55%, n = 15,318). Reported mammal roadkill tended to increase between 2009 and 2014 (R2 = 0.614; p = 0.065), with an average increase of 313.5 individuals/year. Extrapolation of the results to the entire São Paulo State, resulted in an average estimate of 39,605 medium and large-sized mammals roadkilled per year. Our estimates of the number of roadkilled individuals can be used as one of the input parameters in population viability analyses to understand the extinction or extirpation risk, especially for threatened and endangered species.

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Negative-Binomial and quasi-poisson regressions between COVID-19, mobility and environment in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

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