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Heterogeneity of COVID-19 Risk Perception: A Socio-Mathematical Model.

ABSTRACT: The perception of risk has been a key element in the experiences, containment and differential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. The complexity of this phenomenon requires the interdisciplinary integration of theoretical and methodological aspects, as this integration informs the objective of developing a mathematical proposal based on a conceptual model located within the social theory of risk at the micro-social level. The mathematical risk model used here was developed from a secondary analysis of a study of 12,649 individuals on the experiences of the COVID-19 pandemic in a population in which the quantity and quality of the information made it possible to define a risk factor and its relationship to emotions and the sources of information used. Four sequential strategies were used to construct the model: choosing the variables for the questionnaire that theoretically corresponded to the conceptual model, constructing the risk vector and initial grouping of individuals by perception of risk, modeling by using principal component analysis and applying network methods. The theoretical model of risk, proposed and constructed through the analysis of groupings by quartiles and by networks in the studied population from a social and mathematical perspective, demonstrates the heterogeneity of risk perception as manifested by differences in perception by age, gender, expression of feelings and media consulted in a university community. The knowledge and methodology generated in these analyses contribute to the body of knowledge informing the response to future epidemiological contingencies.

SUBMITTER: Gastelum-Strozzi A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8582984 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background: The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, the partial lockdown, the disease intensity, weak governance in the healthcare system, insufficient medical facilities, unawareness, and the sharing of misinformation in the mass media has led to people experiencing fear and anxiety. The present study intended to conduct a perception-based analysis to get an idea of people's psychosocial and socio-economic crisis, and the possible environmental crisis, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh. Methods: A perception-based questionnaire was put online for Bangladeshi citizens of 18 years and/or older. The sample size was 1,066 respondents. Datasets were analyzed through a set of statistical techniques including principal component and hierarchical cluster analysis. Results: There was a positive significant association between fear of the COVID-19 outbreak with the struggling healthcare system (p < 0.05) of the country. Also, there was a negative association between the fragile health system of Bangladesh and the government's ability to deal with the pandemic (p < 0.05), revealing the poor governance in the healthcare system. A positive association of shutdown and social distancing with the fear of losing one's own or a family members' life, influenced by a lack of healthcare treatment (p < 0.05), reveals that, due to the decision of shutting down normal activities, people may be experiencing mental and economic stress. However, a positive association of the socio-economic impact of the shutdown with poor people's suffering, the price hike of basic essentials, the hindering of formal education (p < 0.05), and the possibility of a severe socio-economic and health crisis will be aggravated. Moreover, there is a possibility of a climate change-induced disaster and infectious diseases like dengue during/after the COVID-19 situation, which will create severe food insecurity (p < 0.01) and a further healthcare crisis. Conclusions: The partial lockdown in Bangladesh due to the COVID-19 pandemic increased community transmission and worsened the healthcare crisis, economic burden, and loss of GDP despite the resuming of industrial operations. In society, it has created psychosocial and socio-economic insecurity among people due to the loss of lives and livelihoods. The government should take proper inclusive steps for risk assessment, communications, and financial stimulus toward the public to alleviate their fear and anxiety, and to take proper action to boost mental health and well-being.

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Heterogeneity of COVID-19 Risk Perception: A Socio-Mathematical Model.

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