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Machine Learning for Prediction of Stable Warfarin Dose in US Latinos and Latin Americans

ABSTRACT: Populations used to create warfarin dose prediction algorithms largely lacked participants reporting Hispanic or Latino ethnicity. While previous research suggests nonlinear modeling improves warfarin dose prediction, this research has mainly focused on populations with primarily European ancestry. We compare the accuracy of stable warfarin dose prediction using linear and nonlinear machine learning models in a large cohort enriched for US Latinos and Latin Americans (ULLA). Each model was tested using the same variables as published by the International Warfarin Pharmacogenetics Consortium (IWPC) and using an expanded set of variables including ethnicity and warfarin indication. We utilized a multiple linear regression model and three nonlinear regression models: Bayesian Additive Regression Trees, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, and Support Vector Regression. We compared each model’s ability to predict stable warfarin dose within 20% of actual stable dose, confirming trained models in a 30% testing dataset with 100 rounds of resampling. In all patients (n = 7,030), inclusion of additional predictor variables led to a small but significant improvement in prediction of dose relative to the IWPC algorithm (47.8 versus 46.7% in IWPC, p = 1.43 × 10−15). Nonlinear models using IWPC variables did not significantly improve prediction of dose over the linear IWPC algorithm. In ULLA patients alone (n = 1,734), IWPC performed similarly to all other linear and nonlinear pharmacogenetic algorithms. Our results reinforce the validity of IWPC in a large, ethnically diverse population and suggest that additional variables that capture warfarin dose variability may improve warfarin dose prediction algorithms.

SUBMITTER: Steiner H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8585774 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Objective: This study aimed to systematically assess the characteristics and risk of bias of previous studies that have investigated nonlinear machine learning algorithms for warfarin dose prediction. Methods: We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), China Biology Medicine (CBM), China Science and Technology Journal Database (VIP), and Wanfang Database up to March 2022. We assessed the general characteristics of the included studies with respect to the participants, predictors, model development, and model evaluation. The methodological quality of the studies was determined, and the risk of bias was evaluated using the Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). Results: From a total of 8996 studies, 23 were assessed in this study, of which 23 (100%) were retrospective, and 11 studies focused on the Asian population. The most common demographic and clinical predictors were age (21/23, 91%), weight (17/23, 74%), height (12/23, 52%), and amiodarone combination (11/23, 48%), while CYP2C9 (14/23, 61%), VKORC1 (14/23, 61%), and CYP4F2 (5/23, 22%) were the most common genetic predictors. Of the included studies, the MAE ranged from 1.47 to 10.86 mg/week in model development studies, from 2.42 to 5.18 mg/week in model development with external validation (same data) studies, from 12.07 to 17.59 mg/week in model development with external validation (another data) studies, and from 4.40 to 4.84 mg/week in model external validation studies. All studies were evaluated as having a high risk of bias. Factors contributing to the risk of bias include inappropriate exclusion of participants (10/23, 43%), small sample size (15/23, 65%), poor handling of missing data (20/23, 87%), and incorrect method of selecting predictors (8/23, 35%). Conclusions: Most studies on nonlinear-machine-learning-based warfarin prediction models show poor methodological quality and have a high risk of bias. The analysis domain is the major contributor to the overall high risk of bias. External validity and model reproducibility are lacking in most studies. Future studies should focus on external validity, diminish risk of bias, and enhance real-world clinical relevance.

Project description:Variants in the CYP2C9 (i.e. *2 and *3) and VKORC1 (i.e. 1173C/T or -1639G/A) genes have been shown to influence warfarin dose requirements. However, these factors seem to explain less of the dose variability in African Americans who have a lower prevalence of the CYP2C9*2 and *3 and VKORC1 1173T alleles.In African Americans, the VKORC1 rs17886199 variant was statistically significantly associated with log-transformed warfarin maintenance dose, independent of the influence of VKORC1 1173C>T and CYP2C9*2 and *3. However, replication of our finding is needed to confirm the association of rs1786199 SNP in African Americans, since Limdi et al.[3] did not examine the effect of this SNP because the prevalence of the rs1786199 A-allele was too low.To raise hypotheses with regards to whether genetic variants in the VKORC1, CYP2C9, EPHX1, GGCX and ALB genes might influence warfarin dose in African Americans and Caucasians, independent of the effects of the VKORC1 1173C>T and CYP2C9*2 and *3 variants.From a prospective cohort study, we obtained additional DNA on 36 Caucasian and 22 African American warfarin users who reached maintenance dose and genotyped them for tagSNPs (r2<0.8) in VKORC1, EPHX1, GGCX and ALB genes, and one exonic CYP2C9 SNP. Linear regression models were fitted to estimate the relationship (P value) between log-transformed maintenance dose and each SNP and the amount of the warfarin dose variability accounted for by each SNP (partial R2).In African Americans, the VKORC1 rs17886199 A-allele was associated with a lower dose (GG=46.3 mg and GA=25.6 mg; P=0.002), independent of the VKORC1 1173C>T and CYP2C9*2 and *3 variants. Even after applying Bonferroni correction, the P value would still be considered statistically significant. The VKORC1 rs17886199 variant was not found in Caucasians. In Caucasians, the EPHX1 rs1051741 T-allele was associated with a lower dose (CC=41.3 mg and CT=30.0 mg; P=0.04). The latter was no longer statistically significant after applying Bonferroni correction.Our pilot study suggests that the VKORC1 rs17886199 variant could influence warfarin maintenance dose among African Americans, even after accounting for the influence of the VKORC1 1173C>T variant. Future studies with a larger sample size will be needed to confirm our findings.

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Machine Learning for Prediction of Stable Warfarin Dose in US Latinos and Latin Americans

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