A very likely weakening of Pacific Walker Circulation in constrained near-future projections.

ABSTRACT: The observational records have shown a strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) since 1979. However, whether the observed change is forced by external forcing or internal variability remains inconclusive, a solid answer to more societal relevantly question of how the PWC will change in the near future is still a challenge. Here we perform a quantitative estimation on the contributions of external forcing and internal variability to the recent observed PWC strengthening using large ensemble simulations from six state-of-the-art Earth system models. We find the phase transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), which is an internal variability mode related to the Pacific, accounts for approximately 63% (~51-72%) of the observed PWC strengthening. Models with suffici

SUBMITTER: Wu M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8585867 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature