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Machine Learning-Based Single Cell and Integrative Analysis Reveals That Baseline mDC Predisposition Correlates With Hepatitis B Vaccine Antibody Response

ABSTRACT: Vaccination to prevent infectious disease is one of the most successful public health interventions ever developed. And yet, variability in individual vaccine effectiveness suggests that a better mechanistic understanding of vaccine-induced immune responses could improve vaccine design and efficacy. We have previously shown that protective antibody levels could be elicited in a subset of recipients with only a single dose of the hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccine and that a wide range of antibody levels were elicited after three doses. The immune mechanisms responsible for this vaccine response variability is unclear. Using single cell RNA sequencing of sorted innate immune cell subsets, we identified two distinct myeloid dendritic cell subsets (NDRG1-expressing mDC2 and CDKN1C-expressing mDC4), the ratio of which at baseline (pre-vaccination) correlated with the immune response to a single dose of HBV vaccine. Our results suggest that the participants in our vaccine study were in one of two different dendritic cell dispositional states at baseline – an NDRG2-mDC2 state in which the vaccine elicited an antibody response after a single immunization or a CDKN1C-mDC4 state in which the vaccine required two or three doses for induction of antibody responses. To explore this correlation further, genes expressed in these mDC subsets were used for feature selection prior to the construction of predictive models using supervised canonical correlation machine learning. The resulting models showed an improved correlation with serum antibody titers in response to full vaccination. Taken together, these results suggest that the propensity of circulating dendritic cells toward either activation or suppression, their “dispositional endotype” at pre-vaccination baseline, could dictate response to vaccination.

SUBMITTER: Aevermann B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8588842 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundAccurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this task. However, for different data series, the performance of these models varies. Hepatitis E, as an acute liver disease, has been a major public health problem. Which model is more appropriate for predicting the incidence of hepatitis E? In this paper, three different methods are used and the performance of the three methods is compared.MethodsAutoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA), support vector machine(SVM) and long short-term memory(LSTM) recurrent neural network were adopted and compared. ARIMA was implemented by python with the help of statsmodels. SVM was accomplished by matlab with libSVM library. LSTM was designed by ourselves with Keras, a deep learning library. To tackle the problem of overfitting caused by limited training samples, we adopted dropout and regularization strategies in our LSTM model. Experimental data were obtained from the monthly incidence and cases number of hepatitis E from January 2005 to December 2017 in Shandong province, China. We selected data from July 2015 to December 2017 to validate the models, and the rest was taken as training set. Three metrics were applied to compare the performance of models, including root mean square error(RMSE), mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) and mean absolute error(MAE).ResultsBy analyzing data, we took ARIMA(1, 1, 1), ARIMA(3, 1, 2) as monthly incidence prediction model and cases number prediction model, respectively. Cross-validation and grid search were used to optimize parameters of SVM. Penalty coefficient C and kernel function parameter g were set 8, 0.125 for incidence prediction, and 22, 0.01 for cases number prediction. LSTM has 4 nodes. Dropout and L2 regularization parameters were set 0.15, 0.001, respectively. By the metrics of RMSE, we obtained 0.022, 0.0204, 0.01 for incidence prediction, using ARIMA, SVM and LSTM. And we obtained 22.25, 20.0368, 11.75 for cases number prediction, using three models. For MAPE metrics, the results were 23.5%, 21.7%, 15.08%, and 23.6%, 21.44%, 13.6%, for incidence prediction and cases number prediction, respectively. For MAE metrics, the results were 0.018, 0.0167, 0.011 and 18.003, 16.5815, 9.984, for incidence prediction and cases number prediction, respectively.ConclusionsComparing ARIMA, SVM and LSTM, we found that nonlinear models(SVM, LSTM) outperform linear models(ARIMA). LSTM obtained the best performance in all three metrics of RSME, MAPE, MAE. Hence, LSTM is the most suitable for predicting hepatitis E monthly incidence and cases number.

Project description:BackgroundVaccine safety surveillance is important because it is related to vaccine hesitancy, which affects vaccination rate. To increase confidence in vaccination, the active monitoring of vaccine adverse events is important. For effective active surveillance, we developed and verified a machine learning-based active surveillance system using national claim data.MethodsWe used two databases, one from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, which contains flu vaccination records for the elderly, and another from the National Health Insurance Service, which contains the claim data of vaccinated people. We developed a case-crossover design based machine learning model to predict the health outcome of interest events (anaphylaxis and agranulocytosis) using a random forest. Feature importance values were evaluated to determine candidate associations with each outcome. We investigated the relationship of the features to each event via a literature review, comparison with the Side Effect Resource, and using the Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanation method.ResultsThe trained model predicted each health outcome of interest with a high accuracy (approximately 70%). We found literature supporting our results, and most of the important drug-related features were listed in the Side Effect Resource database as inducing the health outcome of interest. For anaphylaxis, flu vaccination ranked high in our feature importance analysis and had a positive association in Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanation analysis. Although the feature importance of vaccination was lower for agranulocytosis, it also had a positive relationship in the Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanation analysis.ConclusionWe developed a machine learning-based active surveillance system for detecting possible factors that can induce adverse events using health claim and vaccination databases. The results of the study demonstrated a potentially useful application of two linked national health record databases. Our model can contribute to the establishment of a system for conducting active surveillance on vaccination.

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Machine Learning-Based Single Cell and Integrative Analysis Reveals That Baseline mDC Predisposition Correlates With Hepatitis B Vaccine Antibody Response

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