COVID-related "lockdowns" and birth rates in New York.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: McLaren RA
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8589848 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
COVID-related "lockdowns" and birth rates in New York.
McLaren Rodney A RA Trejo Fatima Estrada FE Blitz Matthew J MJ Bianco Angela A Limaye Meghana M Brustman Lois L Bernstein Peter S PS Roman Ashley S AS Stone Joanne J Minkoff Howard H
American journal of obstetrics & gynecology MFM 20210901 6
<h4>Objective</h4>Recent analyses have suggested that the number of births in the United States may decrease substantially in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.<sup>1</sup> Some of this decline may be attributable to economic disruptions that are often linked to lowered birth rates.<sup>1</sup> However to the best of our knowledge, empirical data to validate these projections and to look more specifically at the consequences of "lockdowns," have not yet been published. The objective of our study ...[more]
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Project description:ImportanceThe US has high rates of adverse birth outcomes, with substantial racial disparities augmented by stress and neighborhood disadvantage. Black people are more likely to live in neighborhoods with high rates of incarceration, which is a source of both stress and neighborhood disadvantage and, thus, may contribute to adverse birth outcomes.ObjectiveTo determine whether neighborhoods with high incarceration rates also have higher rates of adverse birth outcomes compared with neighborhoods with lower rates.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study used publicly available data from the New York City Department of Health (2010-2014). Censored Poisson regression, with the US Census tract as the unit of analysis, was used to examine the association of neighborhood incarceration rate and birth outcomes. Multivariable models included percentage of births aggregated to the Census tract by maternal factors (age, parity, singleton vs multiple birth, insurance, and race) and neighborhood factors (poverty, education, and violent crime). Analyses were performed between May 2021 and October 2022.ExposureNeighborhood incarceration rate, categorized into quintiles.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of preterm birth and low birth weight. Secondary outcomes were IRRs of very preterm birth, extremely preterm birth, and very low birth weight. Hypotheses were formulated before data collection.ResultsAmong 2061 Census tracts with 562 339 births, incarceration rates varied from 0 to 4545 people incarcerated per 100 000, and high-incarceration neighborhoods had more residents of Black race (54.00% vs 1.90%), living in poverty (32.30% vs 10.00%), and without a general educational development equivalent (28.00% vs 12.00%) compared with low-incarceration neighborhoods. In fully adjusted models, high-incarceration neighborhoods had a 13% higher IRR of preterm birth (IRR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.08-1.18), 45% higher IRR of very preterm birth (IRR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.24-1.71), 125% higher IRR of extremely preterm birth (IRR, 2.25; 95% CI, 1.59-3.18), 10% higher IRR of low birth weight (IRR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.05-1.16), and 52% higher IRR of very low birth weight compared with low-incarceration neighborhoods (IRR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.28-1.81).Conclusions and relevanceNeighborhood incarceration rate was positively associated with adverse birth outcomes, particularly those associated with infant mortality. Black people were significantly more likely to live in high-incarceration neighborhoods, suggesting that mass incarceration may contribute to racial disparities in birth outcomes.
| S-EPMC10066462 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic reached New York City in early March 2020 resulting in an 11-week lockdown period to mitigate further spread. It has been well documented that cancer care was drastically affected as a result. Given New York City's early involvement, we attempted to identify any stage shift that may have occurred in the diagnoses of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) at our institution as a result of these lockdowns.Patients and methodsWe conducted a retrospective review of a prospective database of lung cancer patients at our institution from July 1, 2019 until March 31, 2021. Patients were grouped by calendar year quarter in which they received care. Basic demographics and clinical staging were compared across quarters.ResultsFive hundred and fifty four patients were identified that underwent treatment during the time period of interest. During the lockdown period, there was a 50% reduction in the mean number of patients seen (15 ± 3 vs. 28 ± 7, P = .004). In the quarter following easing of restrictions, there was a significant trend towards earlier stage (cStage I/II) disease. In comparison to quarters preceding the pandemic lockdown, there was a significant increase in the proportion of patients with Stage IV disease in the quarters following phased reopening (P = .026).ConclusionAfter a transient but significant increase in Stage I/II disease with easing of restrictions there was a significant increase in patients with Stage IV disease. Extended longitudinal studies must be conducted to determine whether COVID-19 lockdowns will lead to further increases in the proportion of patients with advanced NSCLC.
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Project description:ImportanceIn 2017, New York, New York, launched the United States' first right-to-counsel program, guaranteeing lawyers to low-income tenants in select zip codes, which was associated with reducing eviction risk by half. Given documented associations between evictions during pregnancy and adverse birth outcomes, the right-to-counsel program may be associated with improved birth outcomes.ObjectiveTo measure associations between zip code-level right-to-counsel access and risk of adverse birth outcomes, including preterm birth and low birth weight, among infants born to Medicaid-insured birthing parents.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study leveraged the staggered rollout of New York's right-to-counsel program from January 2016 to February 2020 as a natural experiment using a population-based sample of live births to Medicaid-insured birthing parents residing in New York, New York. Data were analyzed from February 2022 to September 2024.ExposureZip code right-to-counsel status 9 months prior to birth.Main outcomes and measuresAdverse birth outcomes were measured using individual birth records from the New York Bureau of Vital Statistics. Outcomes included dichotomous indicators of low birth weight (<2500 g), preterm birth (<37 weeks' gestation), and a composite of both. Difference-in-differences linear probability models controlled for year, month, and zip code and included clustered standard errors.ResultsAmong 260 493 live births (mean [SD] birthing parent age, 29 [6] years) from January 2016 to February 2020, 43 081 births (17%) were to birthing parents residing in zip codes where right-to-counsel was available during pregnancy. Exposure to right-to-counsel during pregnancy was associated with statistically significant reductions in infants' probability of adverse birth outcomes, with reductions of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.06-1.41) percentage points in low birth weight, 0.91 (95% CI, 0.10-1.71) percentage points in preterm birth, and 0.96 (95% CI, 0.09-1.84) percentage points in the composite outcome in treated vs untreated zip codes.Conclusions and relevanceThis cohort study found that right-to-counsel was associated with reduced risk of adverse birth outcomes among Medicaid-insured birthing parents. These findings suggest that eviction prevention via right-to-counsel may have benefits that extend beyond the courtroom and across the life-course.
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Project description:ImportanceContact tracing is the process of identifying people who have recently been in contact with someone diagnosed with an infectious disease. During an outbreak, data collected from contact tracing can inform interventions to reduce the spread of infectious diseases. Understanding factors associated with completion rates of contact tracing surveys can help design improved interview protocols for ongoing and future programs.ObjectiveTo identify factors associated with completion rates of COVID-19 contact tracing surveys in New York City (NYC) and evaluate the utility of a predictive model to improve completion rates, we analyze laboratory-confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases and their self-reported contacts in NYC from October 1st 2020 to May 10th 2021.MethodsWe analyzed 742,807 case investigation calls made during the study period. Using a log-binomial regression model, we examined the impact of age, time of day of phone call, and zip code-level demographic and socioeconomic factors on interview completion rates. We further developed a random forest model to predict the best phone call time and performed a counterfactual analysis to evaluate the change of completion rates if the predicative model were used.ResultsThe percentage of contact tracing surveys that were completed was 79.4%, with substantial variations across ZIP code areas. Using a log-binomial regression model, we found that the age of index case (an individual who has tested positive through PCR or antigen testing and is thus subjected to a case investigation) had a significant effect on the completion of case investigation - compared with young adults (the reference group,24 years old < age < = 65 years old), the completion rate for seniors (age > 65 years old) were lower by 12.1% (95%CI: 11.1% - 13.3%), and the completion rate for youth group (age < = 24 years old) were lower by 1.6% (95%CI: 0.6% -2.6%). In addition, phone calls made from 6 to 9 pm had a 4.1% (95% CI: 1.8% - 6.3%) higher completion rate compared with the reference group of phone calls attempted from 12 and 3 pm. We further used a random forest algorithm to assess its potential utility for selecting the time of day of phone call. In counterfactual simulations, the overall completion rate in NYC was marginally improved by 1.2%; however, certain ZIP code areas had improvements up to 7.8%.ConclusionThese findings suggest that age and time of day of phone call were associated with completion rates of case investigations. It is possible to develop predictive models to estimate better phone call time for improving completion rates in certain communities.
| S-EPMC10854191 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCOVID-19 lockdowns in March 2020 forced National Diabetes Prevention Programs (DPPs) to pause, cancel or reformulate. This qualitative study sought to (a) document if/how New York City(NYC) DPPs adapted and served participants during lockdowns, and (b) identify successes and challenges to operating programs during the lockdowns and restrictions on social gathering.MethodsResearchers contacted 47 CDC-registered DPPs in NYC. Eleven DPP directors, lifestyle coaches, and coordinators involved in program implementation completed 1-hour semi-structured virtual interviews and received a $50 gift card. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using Grounded Theory (Dedoose, Version 9).ResultsInterviewees represented 7 organization types: public hospitals, weight loss programs, healthcare centers, community-based organizations, health insurance companies, faith-based DPPs, and federally qualified health centers. DPPs served participants in 4 of 5 NYC boroughs. Six organizations provided DPP services during lockdowns by going virtual. Successes and challenges related to staffing, resource allocation, virtual data tracking, and participant engagement. Most programs were successful due to resilient, dedicated, and extraordinarily innovative staff.ConclusionThe pandemic highlighted opportunities for successful virtual DPPs in urban settings, and the need for more robust funding, staff support, and technical assistance for sustainability and scalability of the DPP.
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Project description:Extant analyses of the relation between economic conditions and population health were often based on annualized data and were susceptible to confounding by nonlinear time trends. In the present study, the authors used generalized additive models with nonparametric smoothing splines to examine the association between economic conditions, including levels of economic activity in New York State and the degree of volatility in the New York Stock Exchange, and monthly rates of death by suicide in New York City. The rate of suicide declined linearly from 8.1 per 100,000 people in 1990 to 4.8 per 100,000 people in 1999 and then remained stable from 1999 to 2006. In a generalized additive model in which the authors accounted for long-term and seasonal time trends, there was a negative association between monthly levels of economic activity and rates of suicide; the predicted rate of suicide was 0.12 per 100,000 persons lower when economic activity was at its peak compared with when it was at its nadir. The relation between economic activity and suicide differed by race/ethnicity and sex. Stock market volatility was not associated with suicide rates. Further work is needed to elucidate pathways that link economic conditions and suicide.
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Project description:IntroductionThis study aims to determine whether subway ridership and built environmental factors, such as population density and points of interests, are linked to the per capita COVID-19 infection rate in New York City ZIP codes, after controlling for racial and socioeconomic characteristics.MethodsSpatial lag models were employed to model the cumulative COVID-19 per capita infection rate in New York City ZIP codes (N=177) as of April 1 and May 25, 2020, accounting for the spatial relationships among observations. Both direct and total effects (through spatial relationships) were reported.ResultsThis study distinguished between density and crowding. Crowding (and not density) was associated with the higher infection rate on April 1. Average household size was another significant crowding-related variable in both models. There was no evidence that subway ridership was related to the COVID-19 infection rate. Racial and socioeconomic compositions were among the most significant predictors of spatial variation in COVID-19 per capita infection rates in New York City, even more so than variables such as point-of-interest rates, density, and nursing home bed rates.ConclusionsPoint-of-interest destinations not only could facilitate the spread of virus to other parts of the city (through indirect effects) but also were significantly associated with the higher infection rate in their immediate neighborhoods during the early stages of the pandemic. Policymakers should pay particularly close attention to neighborhoods with a high proportion of crowded households and these destinations during the early stages of pandemics.
| S-EPMC7835098 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCity-wide lockdowns and school closures have demonstrably impacted COVID-19 transmission. However, simulation studies have suggested an increased risk of COVID-19 related morbidity for older individuals inoculated by house-bound children. This study examines whether the March 2020 lockdown in New York City (NYC) was associated with higher COVID-19 hospitalization rates in neighborhoods with larger proportions of multigenerational households.MethodsWe obtained daily age-segmented COVID-19 hospitalization counts in each of 166 ZIP code tabulation areas (ZCTAs) in NYC. Using Bayesian Poisson regression models that account for spatiotemporal dependencies between ZCTAs, as well as socioeconomic risk factors, we conducted a difference-in-differences study amongst ZCTA-level hospitalization rates from February 23 to May 2, 2020. We compared ZCTAs in the lowest quartile of multigenerational housing to other quartiles before and after the lockdown.FindingsAmong individuals over 55 years, the lockdown was associated with higher COVID-19 hospitalization rates in ZCTAs with more multigenerational households. The greatest difference occurred three weeks after lockdown: Q2 vs. Q1: 54% increase (95% Bayesian credible intervals: 22-96%); Q3 vs. Q1: 48% (17-89%); Q4 vs. Q1: 66% (30-211%). After accounting for pandemic-related population shifts, a significant difference was observed only in Q4 ZCTAs: 37% (7-76%).InterpretationBy increasing house-bound mixing across older and younger age groups, city-wide lockdown mandates imposed during the growth of COVID-19 cases may have inadvertently, but transiently, contributed to increased transmission in multigenerational households.
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Project description:Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of infant mortality worldwide. Changes in PTB rates, ranging from -90% to +30%, were reported in many countries following early COVID-19 pandemic response measures ('lockdowns'). It is unclear whether this variation reflects real differences in lockdown impacts, or perhaps differences in stillbirth rates and/or study designs. Here we present interrupted time series and meta-analyses using harmonized data from 52 million births in 26 countries, 18 of which had representative population-based data, with overall PTB rates ranging from 6% to 12% and stillbirth ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 per 1,000 births. We show small reductions in PTB in the first (odds ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.95-0.98, P value <0.0001), second (0.96, 0.92-0.99, 0.03) and third (0.97, 0.94-1.00, 0.09) months of lockdown, but not in the fourth month of lockdown (0.99, 0.96-1.01, 0.34), although there were some between-country differences after the first month. For high-income countries in this study, we did not observe an association between lockdown and stillbirths in the second (1.00, 0.88-1.14, 0.98), third (0.99, 0.88-1.12, 0.89) and fourth (1.01, 0.87-1.18, 0.86) months of lockdown, although we have imprecise estimates due to stillbirths being a relatively rare event. We did, however, find evidence of increased risk of stillbirth in the first month of lockdown in high-income countries (1.14, 1.02-1.29, 0.02) and, in Brazil, we found evidence for an association between lockdown and stillbirth in the second (1.09, 1.03-1.15, 0.002), third (1.10, 1.03-1.17, 0.003) and fourth (1.12, 1.05-1.19, <0.001) months of lockdown. With an estimated 14.8 million PTB annually worldwide, the modest reductions observed during early pandemic lockdowns translate into large numbers of PTB averted globally and warrant further research into causal pathways.
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