The Impact of Covid-19 State Closure Orders on Consumer Spending, Employment, and Business Revenue.
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ABSTRACT: Context
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, states across the United States implemented various strategies to mitigate transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19).Objective
To examine the effect of COVID-19-related state closures on consumer spending, business revenue, and employment, while controlling for changes in COVID-19 incidence and death.Design
The analysis estimated a difference-in-difference model, utilizing temporal and geographic variation in state closure orders to analyze their impact on the economy, while controlling for COVID-19 incidence and death.Participants
State-level data on economic outcomes from the Opportunity Insights data tracker and COVID-19 cases and death data from usafacts.org.Interventions
The mitigation strategy analyzed within this study was COVID-19-related state closure orders. Data on these orders were obtained from state government Web sites containing executive or administrative orders.Main outcome measures
Outcomes include state-level estimates of consumer spending, business revenue, and employment levels.Results
Analyses showed that although state closures led to a decrease in consumer spending, business revenue, and employment, they accounted for only a small portion of the observed decreases in these outcomes over the first wave of COVID-19.Conclusions
The impact of COVID-19 on economic activity likely reflects a combination of factors, in addition to state closures, such as individuals' perceptions of risk related to COVID-19 incidence, which may play significant roles in impacting economic activity.
SUBMITTER: Dunphy C
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8589864 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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| S-EPMC7432839 | biostudies-literature
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| S-EPMC6860385 | biostudies-literature
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| S-EPMC7775080 | biostudies-literature
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| S-EPMC8846936 | biostudies-literature
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Project description:Entry rates into self-employment increase during recessions and decrease during economic upswings. I show that this is mostly explained by the higher unemployment rate during a recession, together with the fact that at all times, unemployed persons have a relatively high propensity to become self-employed out of necessity. I use econometric decomposition techniques to quantify these effects based on the monthly matched US Current Population Survey before, during, and after the Great Recession. I also document that the entry rate into self-employment with unincorporated businesses strongly increased during the recession, but not into self-employment with incorporated businesses. This highlights the association of unincorporated and incorporated self-employment with necessity and opportunity entrepreneurship, respectively. The results are useful for policymakers and practitioners to understand, forecast and act on the different types of self-employment that can be expected over the business cycle. There are also important implications for theories of the cyclicality of unemployment and entrepreneurship. Plain English Summary Self-employment will increase during recessions when unemployment is high, but it may not boost innovation. During recessions, increased unemployment underlies the higher entry rate into self-employment. Our evidence is from representative survey data from the USA covering the Great Recession. The upside is that self-employment enables workers who lose their jobs to continue to work, which can speed up the subsequent economic recovery. Thus, public policy should enable people to start businesses. However, as during recessions the unemployed mostly start unincorporated businesses, one cannot expect them to boost innovation as much as start-ups during better economic times. These insights also speak to the 2020 recession triggered by COVID-19. If unemployment remains high after the relaxation of the lockdowns, a rise can be expected especially in non-innovative self-employment. Thus, the principal policy implication of this study is that policymakers should ensure that their expectations for new businesses started during deep recessions are realistic for the circumstances. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s11187-020-00375-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
| S-EPMC7387264 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceTo cope with the continuing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, state and local officials need information on the effectiveness of policies aimed at curbing disease spread, as well as state-specific characteristics, like the racial mix, associated with increased risks related to the disease.ObjectiveTo investigate whether state-imposed stay-at-home orders (SAHOs) and the proportion of African American population in a state were associated with the state-level COVID-19 cases.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study used daily, state-level data on COVID-19 cases, tests, and fatalities from the COVID Tracking Project. Data from March 1 to May 4, 2020, for all states (except Washington state) as well as the District of Columbia were used.ExposuresThe key exposure variables were state-level SAHO (1 if in place, 0 otherwise), and proportion of state population who are African American.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was daily cumulative COVID-19 case rates. A secondary outcome was subsequent COVID-19 fatality rates, derived using mean cumulative fatality rates 21 to 28 days after each date. Multivariate regression models were estimated.ResultsThe final sample included 3023 pooled state- and day-level observations. The mean (SD) cumulative positive case rate was 103.186 (200.067) cases per 100 000 state population, the mean (SD) cumulative test rate was 744.23 (894.944) tests per 100 000 state population, and the mean (SD) subsequent cumulative fatality rate was 12.923 (21.737) deaths per 100 000 state population. There was a negative association of SAHOs with cumulative case rates (β = -1.166; 95% CI, -1.484 to -0.847; P < .001) and subsequent fatality rates (β = -0.204; 95% CI, -0.294 to -0.113; P < .001). Estimation analyses indicated that expected cumulative case rates would have been more than 200% higher and fatality rates approximately 22% higher if there were no SAHOs, as compared with SAHOs fully in place. A higher proportion of African American population was associated with higher case rates (β = 0.045; 95% CI, 0.014 to 0.077; P = .001) and fatality rates (β = 0.068; 95% CI, 0.044 to 0.091; P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceIn this cross-sectional study, SAHOs were associated with reductions in COVID-19 case rates. These findings could help inform policy makers to address the continued COVID-19 pandemic in the US. The proportion of African American population was positively associated with COVID-19 case rates, and this state-level finding adds to evidence from existing ecological studies using county-level data on racial disparities in COVID-19 infection rates and underlines the urgency of better understanding and addressing these disparities.
| S-EPMC7584926 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVES: To compare pharmaceutical spending and utilization in a consumer driven health plan (CDHP) with a three-tier pharmacy benefit design, and to examine whether the CDHP creates incentives to reduce pharmaceutical spending and utilization for chronically ill patients, generic or brand name drugs, and mail-order drugs. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective insurance claims analysis from a large employer that introduced a CDHP in 2001 in addition to a point of service (POS) plan and a preferred provider organization (PPO), both of which used a three-tier pharmacy benefit. METHODS: Difference-in-differences regression models were estimated for drug spending and utilization. Control variables included the employee's income, age, and gender, number of covered lives per contract, election of flexible spending account, health status, concurrent health shock, cohort, and time trend. Results. CDHP pharmaceutical expenditures were lower than those in the POS cohort in 1 year without differences in the use of brand name drugs. We find limited evidence of less drug consumption by CDHP enrollees with chronic illnesses, and some evidence of less generic drug use and more mail-order drug use among CDHP members. CONCLUSIONS: The CDHP is cost-neutral or cost-saving to both the employer and the employee compared with three-tier benefits with no differences in brand name drug use.
| S-EPMC2653878 | biostudies-other