Dataset Information

Development and External Validation of Survival Prediction Model for Pancreatic Cancer Using Two Nationwide Databases: Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) and Korea Tumor Registry System-Biliary Pancreas (KOTUS-BP).

ABSTRACT:

Background/aims

Several prediction models for evaluating the prognosis of nonmetastatic resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) have been developed, and their performances were reported to be superior to that of the 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. We developed a prediction model to evaluate the prognosis of resected PDAC and externally validated it with data from a nationwide Korean database.

Methods

Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database were utilized for model development, and data from the Korea Tumor Registry System-Biliary Pancreas (KOTUS-BP) database were used for external validation. Potential candidate variables for model development were age, sex, histologic differentiation, tumor location, adjuvant chemotherapy, and the AJCC 8th staging system T and N stages. For external validation, the concordance index (C-index) and time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were evaluated.

Results

Between 2004 and 2016, data from 9,624 patients were utilized for model development, and data from 3,282 patients were used for external validation. In the multivariate Cox proportional hazard model, age, sex, tumor location, T and N stages, histologic differentiation, and adjuvant chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for resected PDAC. After an exhaustive search and 10-fold cross validation, the best model was finally developed, which included all prognostic variables. The C-index, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year time-dependent AUCs were 0.628, 0.650, 0.665, 0.675, and 0.686, respectively.

Conclusions

The survival prediction model for resected PDAC could provide quantitative survival probabilities with reliable performance. External validation studies with other nationwide databases are needed to evaluate the performance of this model.

SUBMITTER: Kang JS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8593502 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:PurposeSevere cutaneous adverse reactions (SCARs), including Stevens-Johnson syndrome (SJS), toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN), and drug reaction with eosinophilia and systemic symptoms (DRESS) to antiepileptic drug (AED), are rare, but result in significant morbidity and mortality. We investigated the major culprit drugs, clinical characteristics, and clinical course and outcomes of AED-induced SCARs using a nationwide registry in Korea.MethodsA total of 161 patients with AED-induced SCARs from 28 referral hospitals were analyzed. The causative AEDs, clinical characteristics, organ involvements, details of treatment, and outcomes were evaluated. We compared the clinical and laboratory parameters between SJS/TEN and DRESS according to the leading causative drugs. We further determined risk factors for prolonged hospitalization in AED-induced SCARs.ResultsCarbamazepine and lamotrigine were the most common culprit drugs causing SCARs. Valproic acid and levetiracetam also emerged as the major causative agents. The disease duration and hospital stay in carbamazepine-induced SJS/TEN were shorter than those in other AEDs (P< 0.05, respectively). In younger patients, lamotrigine caused higher incidences of DRESS than other drugs (P= 0.045). Carbamazepine, the most common culprit drug for SCARs, was associated with a favorable outcome related with prolonged hospitalization in SJS (odds ratio, 0.12; 95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.63, P= 0.12), and thrombocytopenia was found to be a risk factor for prolonged hospitalization in DRESS.ConclusionThis was the first large-scale epidemiological study of AED-induced SCARs in Korea. Valproic acid and levetiracetam were the significant emerging AEDs causing SCARs in addition to the well-known offending AEDs such as carbamazepine and lamotrigine. Carbamazepine was associated with reduced hospitalization, but thrombocytopenia was a risk factor for prolonged hospitalization. Our results suggest that the clinical characteristics and clinical courses of AED-induced SCARs might vary according to the individual AEDs.