Dataset Information

Abdominal free fluid in acute pancreatitis predicts necrotizing pancreatitis and organ failure

ABSTRACT:

Background

Abdominal free fluid is frequently encountered on cross-sectional imaging for acute pancreatitis and may be a sign of increased severity and complications. This study examines the ability of free fluid to predict necrotizing pancreatitis and other adverse outcomes.

Methods

We conducted a single-center retrospective study of patients with acute pancreatitis and multiple cross-sectional imaging studies. Patients were divided into those who demonstrated free fluid on initial imaging and those without free fluid. The primary outcome was developing necrotizing pancreatitis. Logistic regression analysis assessed the performance of several predictors.

Results

A total of 245 acute pancreatitis patients were included. Pancreatic necrosis occurred more frequently in the free fluid group (31.3 vs. 1.3%, P<0.001). The free fluid group also had higher rates of transient organ failure (17.7 vs. 3.4%, P<0.001), persistent organ failure (17.7 vs. 2.0%, P<0.001), in-hospital mortality (7.3 vs. 1.3%, P=0.016), length of stay (16.2 vs. 5.5 days, P<0.001), and intensive care unit admission (30.2 vs. 4.7%, P<0.001). On multivariate logistic regression, free fluid was the strongest predictor (adjusted odds ratio 17.11, 95% confidence interval 3.68-79.65; P<0.001) for necrotizing pancreatitis, with an excellent performance (area under the curve 0.92). When neither fluid on initial imaging nor persistent systemic inflammatory response syndrome was present, the negative predictive value for developing pancreatic necrosis was 100%.

Conclusions

Free fluid in acute pancreatitis is a strong predictor for necrotizing pancreatitis, organ failure and mortality, and outperformed current predictors. Patients who lacked both free fluid on imaging and persistent systemic inflammatory response syndrome are at low risk for adverse outcomes and may be considered for early discharge.

SUBMITTER: Yang E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8596223 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has frequently been reported as a significant indicator of systemic inflammation in various medical conditions. The association underlying NLR and outcomes in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) has not been evaluated after the publication of revised Atlanta classification.This was a single-center retrospective diagnostic accuracy study and a cohort outcome study. From 2009 to 2015, Asian Chinese patients with a diagnosis of AP presented within 72?hours from symptom onset and underwent neutrophil, lymphocyte assessment at presentation were included in this study. The outcomes were the occurrence of persistent organ failure (POF), intensive care unit (ICU) stay >7 days, and in-hospital mortality. The relationships of baseline neutrophil, lymphocyte count, and NLR with outcomes were assessed with multivariate Cox regression model.A total of 974 consecutive AP patients were clinically eligible. The mean neutrophils, lymphocytes, and NLR for the entire population were 10.23?±?4.76??×?10/L, 1.05?±?0.49??×?10/L, and 12.88?±?11.25. Overall, 223 (22.9%) of the patients developed with POF, 202 (20.7%) spent more than 7 days in ICU, and 58 (6.0%) died during hospitalization. The NLR had a superior predictive performance than neutrophils and lymphocytes. Using an NLR cutoff of 11, the area under the curves (AUC) were 0.76 for POF, 0.74 for longer ICU stay, and 0.79 for death during hospitalization. After multivariate analysis, NLR???11 was further identified as an independent prognostic factor (hazard ratio [HR] 1.37, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00-1.89; HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.03-2.00; HR 2.75, 95% CI 1.12-6.76; all P value?<?0.05). Following stratification according to quartiles of NLR, positive trends for the association across increasing NLR quartiles and the 3 outcomes were observed (P values for trends across quartiles were 0.007, 0.016, and 0.028, respectively). The adjusted HRs for highest NLR quartile versus the lowest were 2.80 (95% CI 1.42-5.51) (POF), 2.79 (95% CI 1.37-5.70) (ICU?>?7 days), and 2.22 (95% CI 0.49-10.05) (mortality), respectively.Our data show for the first time that an increased NLR is an independent risk factor for POF, longer ICU stay, and in-hospital mortality in AP.