Dataset Information

The role of antiviral treatment in curbing the COVID-19 pandemic: a modeling study.

ABSTRACT: Despite the development of safe and effective vaccines, effective treatments for COVID-19 disease are still desperately needed. Recently, two antiviral drugs have shown to be effective in reducing hospitalizations in clinical trials. In the present work, we use an agent-based mathematical model to assess the potential population impact of the use of antiviral treatments in four countries, corresponding to four current levels of vaccination coverage: Kenya, Mexico, United States (US) and Belgium, with 1.5, 38, 57 and 74% of their populations vaccinated. For each location, we varied antiviral coverage and antiviral effect in reducing viral load (25, 50, 75 or 100% reduction). Irrespective of location, widespread antiviral treatment of symptomatic infections (â‰¥ 50% coverage) is expected to prevent the majority of COVID-19 deaths. Furthermore, even treating 20% of adult symptomatic infections, is expected to reduce mortality by a third in all countries, irrespective of the assumed treatment efficacy in reducing viral load. Our results suggest that early antiviral treatment is needed to mitigate transmission, with early treatment (within two days of symptoms) preventing 50% more infections compared to late treatment (started on days 3 to 5 after developing symptoms). Our results highlight the synergistic effect of vaccination and antiviral treatment: as vaccination rate increased, antiviral treatment had a bigger impact on overall transmission. These results suggest that antiviral treatments can become a strategic tool that, in combination with vaccination, can significantly control SASRS-CoV-2 transmission and reduce COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths.

Significance

Several antiviral drugs have shown to be highly effective in reducing hospitalizations in clinical trials. We used a mathematical model to assess the potential impact of antiviral treatments in four different countries with vastly different proportions of vaccinated individuals (Kenya, Mexico, United States and Belgium). Irrespective of location, widespread antiviral use in adult symptomatic infections can prevent most deaths. Furthermore, a third of deaths could be averted by treating only 20% of adult symptomatic infections. We identified a synergistic effect of antiviral treatment and vaccination by which countries with larger proportion of their population vaccinated benefited more from antiviral treatments. Our results show that antiviral treatments can be an extremely useful tool to reduce COVID-19 deaths and curtail SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

SUBMITTER: Matrajt L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8597888 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Could widespread use of antiviral treatment curb the COVID-19 pandemic? A modeling study.

Matrajt Laura L Brown Elizabeth R ER Cohen Myron S MS Dimitrov Dobromir D Janes Holly H

medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences 20220404

Despite the development of safe and effective vaccines, effective treatments for COVID-19 disease are still desperately needed. Recently, two antiviral drugs have shown to be effective in reducing hospitalizations in clinical trials. In the present work, we use an agent-based mathematical model to assess the potential population impact of the use of antiviral treatments in four countries, corresponding to four current levels of vaccination coverage: Kenya, Mexico, United States (US) and Belgium, ...[more]

PMID: 34790985

Similar Datasets

Project description:In many countries, patients with mild coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are told to self-isolate at home, but imperfect compliance and shared living space with uninfected people limit the effectiveness of home-based isolation. We examine the impact of facility-based isolation compared to self-isolation at home on the continuing epidemic in the USA. We developed a compartment model to simulate the dynamic transmission of COVID-19 and calibrated it to key epidemic measures in the USA from March to September 2020. We simulated facility-based isolation strategies with various capacities and starting times under different diagnosis rates. Our primary model outcomes are new infections and deaths over 2 months from October 2020 onwards. In addition to national-level estimations, we explored the effects of facility-based isolation under different epidemic burdens in major US Census Regions. We performed sensitivity analyses by varying key model assumptions and parameters. We find that facility-based isolation with moderate capacity of 5 beds per 10 000 total population could avert 4.17 (95% credible interval 1.65-7.11) million new infections and 16 000 (8000-23 000) deaths in 2 months compared with home-based isolation. These results are equivalent to relative reductions of 57% (44-61%) in new infections and 37% (27-40%) in deaths. Facility-based isolation with high capacity of 10 beds per 10 000 population could achieve reductions of 76% (62-84%) in new infections and 52% (37-64%) in deaths when supported by expanded testing with an additional 20% daily diagnosis rate. Delays in implementation would substantially reduce the impact of facility-based isolation. The effective capacity and the impact of facility-based isolation varied by epidemic stage across regions. Timely facility-based isolation for mild COVID-19 cases could substantially reduce the number of new infections and effectively curb the continuing epidemic in the USA. Local epidemic burdens should determine the scale of facility-based isolation strategies.