Interrupted time-series analysis showed unintended consequences of non-pharmaceutical interventions on pediatric hospital admissions.
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ABSTRACT: Objective
COVID-19-associated non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) have disrupted respiratory viral transmission. We quantified the changes in pediatric hospital admissions in 2020 from five different NPI phases in Western Australia for acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in children in the context of all-cause admissions.Study design and setting
We assessed anonymised hospitalization data from Perth Children's Hospital (Jan 2015-Dec 2020) for all-cause admissions, ALRI, febrile illnesses and trauma (negative control) in those <17 years. We evaluated absolute changes in admissions and the weekly change estimated from interrupted time-series models.Results
The absolute number of admissions was comparable in 2020 (15,678) vs. 2015 to 2019 average (15,310). Following the introduction of strict NPIs, all-cause admissions declined by 35%, recovered to pre-pandemic levels, then increased by 24% following NPI cessation. ALRI admissions in children <5 years initially declined by 89%, which was sustained throughout the gradual easing of NPI until an increase of 579% (997% in <3 months) following the final easing of NPI. Admissions for trauma showed minimal changes in 2020 compared to preceding years.Conclusion
COVID-19-associated NPI had significant unintended consequences in health service utilization, especially for ALRI and infants <3 months, prompting the need to understand viral transmission dynamics in young children.
SUBMITTER: Moore HC
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8600916 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundUncontrolled infection and lockdown measures introduced in response have resulted in an unprecedented challenge for health systems internationally. Whether such unprecedented impact was due to lockdown itself and recedes when such measures are lifted is unclear. We assessed the short- and medium-term impacts of the first lockdown measures on hospital care for tracer non-COVID-19 conditions in England, Scotland and Wales across diseases, sexes, and socioeconomic and ethnic groups.MethodsWe used OpenSAFELY (for England), EAVEII (Scotland), and SAIL Databank (Wales) to extract weekly hospital admission rates for cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory conditions (excluding COVID-19) from the pre-pandemic period until 25/10/2020 and conducted a controlled interrupted time series analysis. We undertook stratified analyses and assessed admission rates over seven months during which lockdown restrictions were gradually lifted.FindingsOur combined dataset included 32 million people who contributed over 74 million person-years. Admission rates for all three conditions fell by 34.2% (Confidence Interval (CI): -43.0, -25.3) in England, 20.9% (CI: -27.8, -14.1) in Scotland, and 24.7% (CI: -36.7, -12.7) in Wales, with falls across every stratum considered. In all three nations, cancer-related admissions fell the most while respiratory-related admissions fell the least (e.g., rates fell by 40.5% (CI: -47.4, -33.6), 21.9% (CI: -35.4, -8.4), and 19.0% (CI: -30.6, -7.4) in England for cancer, cardiovascular-related, and respiratory-related admissions respectively). Unscheduled admissions rates fell more in the most than the least deprived quintile across all three nations. Some ethnic minority groups experienced greater falls in admissions (e.g., in England, unscheduled admissions fell by 9.5% (CI: -20.2, 1.2) for Whites, but 44.3% (CI: -71.0, -17.6), 34.6% (CI: -63.8, -5.3), and 25.6% (CI: -45.0, -6.3) for Mixed, Other and Black ethnic groups respectively). Despite easing of restrictions, the overall admission rates remained lower in England, Scotland, and Wales by 20.8%, 21.6%, and 22.0%, respectively when compared to the same period (August-September) during the pre-pandemic years. This corresponds to a reduction of 26.2, 23.8 and 30.2 admissions per 100,000 people in England, Scotland, and Wales respectively.InterpretationHospital care for non-COVID diseases fell substantially across England, Scotland, and Wales during the first lockdown, with reductions persisting for at least six months. The most deprived and minority ethnic groups were impacted more severely.FundingThis work was funded by the Medical Research Council as part of the Lifelong Health and Wellbeing study as part of National Core Studies (MC_PC_20030). SVK acknowledges funding from the Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00022/2), and the Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office (SPHSU17). EAVE II is funded by the Medical Research Council (MR/R008345/1) with the support of BREATHE - The Health Data Research Hub for Respiratory Health (MC_PC_19004), which is funded through the UK Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund and delivered through Health Data Research UK. BG has received research funding from the NHS National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), the Wellcome Trust, Health Data Research UK, Asthma UK, the British Lung Foundation, and the Longitudinal Health and Wellbeing strand of the National Core Studies programme.
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Project description:BackgroundNon-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been implemented worldwide to suppress the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, few studies have evaluated the effect of NPIs on other infectious diseases and none has assessed the avoided disease burden associated with NPIs. We aimed to assess the effect of NPIs on the incidence of infectious diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and evaluate the health economic benefits related to the reduction in the incidence of infectious diseases.MethodsData on 10 notifiable infectious diseases across China during 2010-2020 were extracted from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. A two-stage controlled interrupted time-series design with a quasi-Poisson regression model was used to examine the impact of NPIs on the incidence of infectious diseases. The analysis was first performed at the provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs) level in China, then the PLAD-specific estimates were pooled using a random-effect meta-analysis.ResultsA total of 61,393,737 cases of 10 infectious diseases were identified. The implementation of NPIs was associated with 5.13 million (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.45‒7.42) avoided cases and USD 1.77 billion (95% CI 1.18‒2.57) avoided hospital expenditures in 2020. There were 4.52 million (95% CI 3.00‒6.63) avoided cases for children and adolescents, corresponding to 88.2% of total avoided cases. The top leading cause of avoided burden attributable to NPIs was influenza [avoided percentage (AP): 89.3%; 95% CI 84.5‒92.6]. Socioeconomic status and population density were effect modifiers.ConclusionsNPIs for COVID-19 could effectively control the prevalence of infectious diseases, with patterns of risk varying by socioeconomic status. These findings have important implications for informing targeted strategies to prevent infectious diseases.
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Project description:BackgroundChina implemented strict non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 at the early stage. We aimed to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on HIV care continuum in China.MethodsAggregated data on HIV care continuum between 1 January 2017 and 31 December 2020 were collected from centers for disease control and prevention at different levels and major infectious disease hospitals in various regions in China. We used interrupted time series analysis to characterize temporal trend in weekly numbers of HIV post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) prescriptions, HIV tests, HIV diagnoses, median time intervals between HIV diagnosis and antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation (time intervals, days), ART initiations, mean CD4+ T cell counts at ART initiation (CD4 counts, cells/μL), ART collections, and missed visits for ART collection, before and after the implementation of massive NPIs (23 January to 7 April 2020). We used Poisson segmented regression models to estimate the immediate and long-term impact of NPIs on these outcomes.FindingsA total of 16,780 PEP prescriptions, 1,101,686 HIV tests, 69,659 HIV diagnoses, 63,409 time intervals and ART initiations, 61,518 CD4 counts, 1,528,802 ART collections, and 6656 missed visits were recorded during the study period. The majority of outcomes occurred in males (55·3-87·4%), 21-50 year olds (51·7-90·5%), Southwestern China (38·2-82·0%) and heterosexual transmission (47·9-66·1%). NPIs was associated with 71·5% decrease in PEP prescriptions (IRR 0·285; 95% CI 0·192-0·423), 36·1% decrease in HIV tests (0·639, 0·497-0·822), 32·0% decrease in HIV diagnoses (0·680, 0·511-0·904), 59·3% increase in time intervals (1·593, 1·270-1·997) and 17·4% decrease in CD4 counts (0·826, 0·746-0·915) in the first week during NPIs. There was no marked change in the number of ART initiations, ART collections and missed visits during the NPIs. By the end of 2020, the number of HIV tests, HIV diagnoses, time intervals, ART initiations, and CD4 counts reached expected levels, but the number of PEP prescriptions (0·523, 0·394-0·696), ART collections (0·720, 0·595-0·872), and missed visits (0·137, 0·086-0·220) were still below expected levels. With the ease of restrictions, PEP prescriptions (slope change 1·024/week, 1·012-1·037), HIV tests (1·016/week, 1·008-1·026), and CD4 counts (1·005/week, 1·001-1·009) showed a significant increasing trend.InterpretationHIV care continuum in China was affected by the COVID-19 NPIs at various levels. Preparedness and efforts to maintain the HIV care continuum during public health emergencies should leverage collaborations between stakeholders.FundingNatural Science Foundation of China.
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Project description:ObjectiveTo investigate the association between helmet legislation and admissions to hospital for cycling related head injuries among young people and adults in Canada.DesignInterrupted time series analysis using data from the National Trauma Registry Minimum Data Set.SettingCanadian provinces and territories; between 1994 and 2003, six of 10 provinces implemented helmet legislation.ParticipantsAll admissions (n=66,716) to acute care hospitals in Canada owing to cycling related injury between 1994 and 2008.Main outcome measureRate of admissions to hospital for cycling related head injuries before and after the implementation of provincial helmet legislation.ResultsBetween 1994 and 2008, 66,716 hospital admissions were for cycling related injuries in Canada. Between 1994 and 2003, the rate of head injuries among young people decreased by 54.0% (95% confidence interval 48.2% to 59.8%) in provinces with helmet legislation compared with 33.1% (23.3% to 42.9%) in provinces and territories without legislation. Among adults, the rate of head injuries decreased by 26.0% (16.0% to 36.3%) in provinces with legislation but remained constant in provinces and territories without legislation. After taking baseline trends into consideration, however, we were unable to detect an independent effect of legislation on the rate of hospital admissions for cycling related head injuries.ConclusionsReductions in the rates of admissions to hospital for cycling related head injuries were greater in provinces with helmet legislation, but injury rates were already decreasing before the implementation of legislation and the rate of decline was not appreciably altered on introduction of legislation. While helmets reduce the risk of head injuries and we encourage their use, in the Canadian context of existing safety campaigns, improvements to the cycling infrastructure, and the passive uptake of helmets, the incremental contribution of provincial helmet legislation to reduce hospital admissions for head injuries seems to have been minimal.
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Project description:ObjectivesFollowing the outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus and the subsequent global spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), health systems and the populations who use them have faced unprecedented challenges. We aimed to measure the impact of COVID-19 on the uptake of hospital-based care at a national level.DesignThe study period (weeks ending 5 January to 28 June 2020) encompassed the pandemic announcement by the World Health Organization and the initiation of the UK lockdown. We undertook an interrupted time-series analysis to evaluate the impact of these events on hospital services at a national level and across demographics, clinical specialties and National Health Service Health Boards.SettingScotland, UK.ParticipantsPatients receiving hospital care from National Health Service Scotland.Main outcome measuresAccident and emergency (A&E) attendances, and emergency and planned hospital admissions measured using the relative change of weekly counts in 2020 to the averaged counts for equivalent weeks in 2018 and 2019.ResultsBefore the pandemic announcement, the uptake of hospital care was largely consistent with historical levels. This was followed by sharp drops in all outcomes until UK lockdown, where activity began to steadily increase. This time-period saw an average reduction of -40.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -47.7 to -33.7) in A&E attendances, -25.8% (95% CI: -31.1 to -20.4) in emergency hospital admissions and -60.9% (95% CI: -66.1 to -55.7) in planned hospital admissions, in comparison to the 2018-2019 averages. All subgroup trends were broadly consistent within outcomes, but with notable variations across age groups, specialties and geography.ConclusionsCOVID-19 has had a profoundly disruptive impact on hospital-based care across National Health Service Scotland. This has likely led to an adverse effect on non-COVID-19-related illnesses, increasing the possibility of potentially avoidable morbidity and mortality. Further research is required to elucidate these impacts.
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Project description:BackgroundMonovalent rotavirus vaccine, Rotarix (GlaxoSmithKline), was introduced in Kenya in July 2014 and is recommended to infants as oral doses at ages 6 and 10 weeks. A multisite study was established in 2 population-based surveillance sites to evaluate vaccine impact on the incidence of rotavirus-associated hospitalizations (RVHs).MethodsHospital-based surveillance was conducted from January 2010 to June 2017 for acute diarrhea hospitalizations among children aged <5 years in 2 health facilities in Kenya. A controlled interrupted time-series analysis was undertaken to compare RVH pre- and post-vaccine introduction using rotavirus-negative cases as a control series. The change in incidence post-vaccine introduction was estimated from a negative binomial model that adjusted for secular trend, seasonality, and multiple health worker industrial actions (strikes).ResultsBetween January 2010 and June 2017 there were 1513 and 1652 diarrhea hospitalizations in Kilifi and Siaya; among those tested for rotavirus, 28% (315/1142) and 23% (197/877) were positive, respectively. There was a 57% (95% confidence interval [CI], 8-80%) reduction in RVHs observed in the first year post-vaccine introduction in Kilifi and a 59% (95% CI, 20-79%) reduction in Siaya. In the second year, RVHs decreased further at both sites, 80% (95% CI, 46-93%) reduction in Kilifi and 82% reduction in Siaya (95% CI. 61-92%); this reduction was sustained at both sites into the third year.ConclusionsA substantial reduction in RVHs and all-cause diarrhea was observed in 2 demographic surveillance sites in Kenya within 3 years of vaccine introduction.
| S-EPMC7245159 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe unprecedented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused millions of infections worldwide and represents a significant challenge facing modern health care systems. This study was conducted to investigate the impact of lockdown measures in a tertiary Children's Hospital in southwest China, which might be used to predict long-term effects related to health-seeking behavior of parents/caregivers.MethodsThis study included newborns enrolled over a span of 86 weeks between January 4, 2019, and August 27, 2020. We designated two time periods for analysis purposes: a stable pre-COVID period(55 weeks between January 4, 2019, and January 23, 2020) and a COVID-impacted period (31 weeks between January 24, 2020, and August 27, 2020). An interrupted time-series analysis was employed to compare changes and trends in hospital admissions and disease spectra before and after the period of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Furthermore, this study was conducted to evaluate whether the health-seeking behavior of parents/caregivers was influenced by pandemic factors.ResultsOverall, 16,640 infants were admitted to the neonatology department during the pre-COVID period (n = 12,082) and the COVID-impacted period (n = 4,558). The per week neonatal admissions consistently decreased following the first days of NPIs (January 24, 2020). The average weekly admission rates of 220/week pre-COVID period and 147/week COVID-impacted period. There was an evident decrease in the volume of admissions for all disease spectra after the intervention, whereas the decrease of patients complaining about pathological jaundice-related conditions was statistically significant (p<0.05). In the COVID-impacted period, the percentage of patients who suffered from respiratory system diseases, neonatal encephalopathy, and infectious diseases decreased, while the percentage of pathological jaundice-related conditions and gastrointestinal system diseases increased. The neonatal mortality rates (NMRs) increased by 8.7% during the COVID-impacted period compared with the pre-COVID period.ConclusionsIn summary, there was a significant decline in neonatal admissions in a tertiary care hospital during the COVID-19 Pandemic and the associated NPIs. Additionally, this situation had a remarkable impact on disease spectra and health-seeking behavior of parents/caregivers. We, therefore, advise continuing follow-ups and monitoring the main health indicators in vulnerable populations affected by this Pandemic over time.
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