Modeling the effect of the vaccination campaign on the COVID-19 pandemic.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Angeli M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8603113 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundEstimating real-world vaccine effectiveness is challenging as a variety of population factors can impact vaccine effectiveness. We aimed to assess the population-level reduction in cumulative severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) cases, hospitalizations, and mortality due to the BNT162b2 mRNA coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination campaign in Israel during January-February 2021.MethodsA susceptible-infected-recovered/removed (SIR) model and a Dynamic Survival Analysis (DSA) statistical approach were used. Daily counts of individuals who tested positive and of vaccine doses administered, obtained from the Israeli Ministry of Health, were used to calibrate the model. The model was parameterized using values derived from a previous phase of the pandemic during which similar lockdown and other preventive measures were implemented in order to take into account the effect of these prevention measures on COVID-19 spread.ResultsOur model predicted for the total population a reduction of 648 585 SARS-CoV-2 cases (75% confidence interval [CI], 25 877-1 396 963) during the first 2 months of the vaccination campaign. The number of averted hospitalizations for moderate to severe conditions was 16 101 (75% CI, 2010-33 035), and reduction of death was estimated at 5123 (75% CI, 388-10 815) fatalities. Among children aged 0-19 years, we estimated a reduction of 163 436 (75% CI, 0-433 233) SARS-CoV-2 cases, which we consider to be an indirect effect of the vaccine.ConclusionsOur results suggest that the rapid vaccination campaign prevented hundreds of thousands of new cases as well as thousands of hospitalizations and fatalities and has probably averted a major health care crisis.
| S-EPMC9043004 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Given recent downward trends in daily rates of COVID-19 vaccinations, it is important to reassess strategies to reach those most vulnerable. The success and efficacy of vaccination campaigns for other respiratory illnesses, such as influenza, may help inform messaging around COVID-19 vaccinations. This cross-sectional study examines the individual-level factors associated with, and the spatial distribution of, predictors of COVID-19 severity, and uptake of influenza and hepatitis B (as a negative control) vaccines across NYC. Data were obtained from the 2018 Community Health Survey (CHS), including self-reported influenza and hepatitis B vaccine uptake, diabetes, asthma, hypertension, body mass index (BMI), age, race/ethnicity, educational attainment, borough, and United Hospital Fund (UHF) neighborhood of residence. A CDC-defined COVID-19 severity risk score was created with variables available in the CHS, including diabetes, asthma, hypertension, BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 , and age ≥65 years old. After adjustment, there was a significant positive association between COVID-19 severity risk score and influenza vaccine uptake (1: ORadj = 1.49, 95% CI 1.28-1.73; 2: ORadj = 1.99; 95% CI: 1.65-2.41; 3+: ORadj = 2.89; 95% CI: 2.32-3.60, compared to 0). Hepatitis B vaccine uptake was significantly inversely associated with COVID-19 severity risk score (1: ORadj = 0.67; 95% CI: 0.57-0.79; 2: ORadj = 0.54; 95% CI: 0.44-0.66; 3+: ORadj = 0.45; 95% CI: 0.36-0.56, compared to 0). The influenza vaccination campaign template is effective at reaching those most at risk for serious COVID-19 and, if implemented, may help reach the most vulnerable that have not yet been vaccinated against COVID-19.
| S-EPMC8662223 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is still an important problem of concern in Ukraine. The rapid deployment of the vaccination program is a key event for the formation of herd immunity and helps to prevent negative outcomes, overloading the public health system.MethodsThe object of the retrospective-archival study was a depersonalized database of open panels on the management of the COVID-19 situation from the Ministry of Health of Ukraine.ResultsThe total number of COVID-19 cases in Ukraine as of 25 December 2022 amounted to 5 314 388 individuals (12.83% of the population), and COVID-19-related deaths reached 110 029 individuals (0.26% of the population). The overall number of COVID-19 vaccinated persons in Ukraine as of 16 January 2022, with one dose was 36 198 per 100 000 persons (36% of the population), and with two doses, it was 34 703 per 100 000 persons (35% of the population). It was shown a decrease in the number of COVID-19 vaccinated persons among men and persons over the age of 70. In the dynamics of COVID-19 vaccination with one and two doses, an increase in the number of persons vaccinated with Pfizer/BioNTech and CoronaVac was noted.ConclusionsDespite the significant increase in the morbidity and mortality rates of COVID-19, the coverage of vaccination among the population remained insufficient in Ukraine. The effective COVID-19 vaccination strategy should include appropriate management and ensuring the public health system capacity, implementation of information technologies to address logistics issues, and clear communication strategies to maintain public trust.
| S-EPMC10843935 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWe evaluate the overall effectiveness of the nationwide vaccination campaign using ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, and Ad26.COV2.S vaccines in preventing Covid-19 in South Korea.MethodsThe National Surveillance System with the National Immunization Registry were linked to form a large-linked database for assessment. Age-adjusted incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, severe disease, and death by vaccination status are calculated. Weekly vaccine effectiveness was calculated based on incidence rate ratio (IRR) between fully-vaccinated and unvaccinated persons, as: IRR = incidence rate of vaccinated / incidence rate of unvaccinated. We estimate the cumulative SARS-CoV-2 outcome overtime comparing the observed case with predicted cases without vaccination.ResultsAge-adjusted incidence in unvaccinated persons (5.69 per 100,000 person-day) was 2.7 times the rate in fully vaccinated (2.13 per 100,000 person-day) persons, resulting effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection of 63%. Vaccine effectiveness against severe disease and death were 93% and 95%, respectively. Between March and October 2021, estimated Covid-19 related outcomes averted by vaccinations were: 46,508 infections, 3,424 severe diseases, and 718 deaths.ConclusionsWe found significant protection for national Covid-19 vaccination campaign against Covid-19 severe disease, and death in target populations, but there was an unexpected decreased protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection, highlighting the importance of continued surveillance and assessment.
| S-EPMC9080122 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To model estimated deaths averted by COVID-19 vaccines, we used state-of-the-art mathematical modeling, likelihood-based inference, and reported COVID-19 death and vaccination data. We estimated that >1.5 million deaths were averted in 12 countries. Our model can help assess effectiveness of the vaccination program, which is crucial for curbing the COVID-19 pandemic.
| S-EPMC9423931 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeInfluenza infections have substantial impact on healthcare institutions. While vaccination is the most effective preventive measure against influenza infection, vaccination coverage in healthcare workers is low. The study investigates the impact of an intensified influenza vaccination campaign in a maximum-care hospital on influenza vaccination coverage in healthcare workers during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020/21.MethodsBuilding on findings from our previously published review Schumacher et al. (Infection 49(3): 387, 2021), an intensified influenza vaccination campaign comprising a mobile vaccination team providing on-site vaccination and vaccination at a recurring central vaccination site in addition to promotional measures was performed and analysed regarding vaccination coverage. A survey querying vaccination motivation was performed. Campaign strategies and vaccination coverage of influenza seasons between 2017/18 and 2019/20 were analysed.ResultsThe influenza vaccination campaign 2020/21 led to a significant 2.4-fold increase yielding an overall vaccination coverage of 40% among healthcare workers. A significant increase in vaccination coverage was observed across all professional fields; especially among nurses, a 2.7-fold increase, reaching a vaccination coverage of 48%, was observed. The COVID-19 pandemic positively influenced vaccination decision in 72% of first time ever or first time in over ten years influenza vaccinees. Vaccination coverage during prior vaccination campaigns focusing on educational measures did not exceed 17%.ConclusionA mobile vaccination team providing on-site vaccination and vaccinations at a central vaccination site in addition to promotional measures can be implemented to increase influenza vaccination coverage in healthcare workers. Our concept can inform influenza and other vaccination campaigns for healthcare workers.
| S-EPMC9972307 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-BSST1055 | biostudies-other
Project description:We analyze the effectiveness of the first six months of vaccination campaign against SARS-CoV-2 in Italy by using a computational epidemic model which takes into account demographic, mobility, vaccines data, as well as estimates of the introduction and spreading of the more transmissible Alpha variant. We consider six sub-national regions and study the effect of vaccines in terms of number of averted deaths, infections, and reduction in the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) with respect to counterfactual scenarios with the actual non-pharmaceuticals interventions but no vaccine administration. Furthermore, we compare the effectiveness in counterfactual scenarios with different vaccines allocation strategies and vaccination rates. Our results show that, as of 2021/07/05, vaccines averted 29, 350 (IQR: [16, 454-42, 826]) deaths and 4, 256, 332 (IQR: [1, 675, 564-6, 980, 070]) infections and a new pandemic wave in the country. During the same period, they achieved a -22.2% (IQR: [-31.4%; -13.9%]) IFR reduction. We show that a campaign that would have strictly prioritized age groups at higher risk of dying from COVID-19, besides frontline workers and the fragile population, would have implied additional benefits both in terms of avoided fatalities and reduction in the IFR. Strategies targeting the most active age groups would have prevented a higher number of infections but would have been associated with more deaths. Finally, we study the effects of different vaccination intake scenarios by rescaling the number of available doses in the time period under study to those administered in other countries of reference. The modeling framework can be applied to other countries to provide a mechanistic characterization of vaccination campaigns worldwide.
| S-EPMC9173644 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Faced with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the development of COVID-19 vaccines has been progressing at an unprecedented rate. This study aimed to evaluate the acceptance of COVID-19 vaccination in China and give suggestions for vaccination strategies and immunization programs accordingly. In March 2020, an anonymous cross-sectional survey was conducted online among Chinese adults. The questionnaire collected socio-demographic characteristics, risk perception, the impact of COVID-19, attitudes, acceptance and attribute preferences of vaccines against COVID-19 during the pandemic. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify the influencing factors of vaccination acceptance. Of the 2058 participants surveyed, 1879 (91.3%) stated that they would accept COVID-19 vaccination after the vaccine becomes available, among whom 980 (52.2%) wanted to get vaccinated as soon as possible, while others (47.8%) would delay the vaccination until the vaccine's safety was confirmed. Participants preferred a routine immunization schedule (49.4%) to emergency vaccination (9.0%) or either of them (41.6%). Logistic regression showed that being male, being married, perceiving a high risk of infection, being vaccinated against influenza in the past season, believing in the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccination or valuing doctor's recommendations could increase the probability of accepting COVID-19 vaccination as soon as possible, while having confirmed or suspected cases in local areas, valuing vaccination convenience or vaccine price in decision-making could hinder participants from immediate vaccination. During the pandemic period, a strong demand for and high acceptance of COVID-19 vaccination has been shown among the Chinese population, while concerns about vaccine safety may hinder the promotion of vaccine uptake. To expand vaccination coverage, immunization programs should be designed to remove barriers in terms of vaccine price and vaccination convenience, and health education and communication from authoritative sources are important ways to alleviate public concerns about vaccine safety.
| S-EPMC7565574 | biostudies-literature
Project description:During the COVID-19 vaccination campaign, Germany, like other high-income countries, introduced mass vaccination centers for administering vaccinations. This qualitative study aimed to examine the role that these novel, temporary government healthcare structures played in a mass immunization roll-out and how they can be optimally deployed. In addition, learnings for general emergency preparedness were explored. A total of 27 high-level policymakers responsible for planning and implementing the COVID vaccination campaign at the national and state level in Germany were interviewed in May and June 2022. The semi-structured interviews were analyzed using thematic analysis. Interviewees indicated that mass vaccination structures played an essential role with respect to controllability, throughput, accessibility and openness in line with the key success criteria vaccination coverage, speed and accessibility. In contrast to the regular vaccination structures (private medical practices and occupational health services), public administration has direct authority over mass vaccination centers, allowing for reliable vaccine access prioritization and documentation. The deployment of vaccination centers should be guided by vaccine availability and demand, and vaccine requirements related to logistics, as well as local capacities, i.e., public-health-service strength and the physician density, to ensure effective, timely and equitable access. Improvements to the capacity use, scalability and flexibility of governmental vaccination structures are warranted for future pandemics.
| S-EPMC10611148 | biostudies-literature