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COVID-19 Vaccination Dynamics in the US: Coverage Velocity and Carrying Capacity Based on Socio-demographic Vulnerability Indices in California

ABSTRACT: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disparities among vulnerable populations are of paramount concern that extend to vaccine administration. With recent uptick in infection rates, dominance of the delta variant, and authorization of a third booster shot, understanding the population-level vaccine coverage dynamics and underlying sociodemographic factors is critical for achieving equity in public health outcomes. This study aimed to characterize the scope of vaccine inequity in California counties through modeling the trends of vaccination using the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). Overall SVI, its four themes, and 9228 data points of daily vaccination numbers from December 15, 2020, to May 23, 2021, across all 58 California counties were used to model the growth velocity and anticipated maximum proportion of population vaccinated, defined as having received at least one dose of vaccine. Based on the overall SVI, the vaccination coverage velocity was lower in counties in the high vulnerability category (v = 0.0346, 95% CI 0.0334, 0.0358) compared to moderate (v = 0.0396, 95% CI 0.0385, 0.0408) and low (v = 0.0414, 95% CI 0.0403, 0.0425) vulnerability categories. SVI Theme 3 (minority status and language) yielded the largest disparity in coverage velocity between low and high-vulnerable counties (v = 0.0423 versus v = 0.035, P < 0.001). Based on the current trajectory, while counties in low-vulnerability category of overall SVI are estimated to achieve a higher proportion of vaccinated individuals, our models yielded a higher asymptotic maximum for highly vulnerable counties of Theme 3 (K = 0.544, 95% CI 0.527, 0.561) compared to low-vulnerability counterparts (K = 0.441, 95% CI 0.432, 0.450). The largest disparity in asymptotic proportion vaccinated between the low and high-vulnerability categories was observed in Theme 2 describing the household composition and disability (K = 0.602, 95% CI 0.592, 0.612; versus K = 0.425, 95% CI 0.413, 0.436). Overall, the large initial disparities in vaccination rates by SVI status attenuated over time, particularly based on Theme 3 status which yielded a large decrease in cumulative vaccination rate ratio of low to high-vulnerability categories from 1.42 to 0.95 (P = 0.002). This study provides insight into the problem of COVID-19 vaccine disparity across California which can help promote equity during the current pandemic and guide the allocation of future vaccines such as COVID-19 booster shots.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10903-021-01308-2.

SUBMITTER: Bruckhaus A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8603654 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:In 2013 a rubella outbreak occurred among Japanese people of working-age which resulted in 14,357 reported cases. The Japanese government subsequently recommended voluntary vaccination or rubella antibody testing for young women (15-49 years of age) who were planning to conceive and for adult men, children, and other persons in potential contact with pregnant women at home. However, the expense and time involved for vaccination, antibody testing and visiting a clinic may represent a major barrier to voluntary compliance among this busy demographic. The aim of the current study was, therefore, to examine potential relationships between the social background of Japanese working-age individuals affected by the 2013 voluntary vaccination campaign.A web-based survey of 1,889 Japanese men and women aged 20-49 years was conducted in early 2014. Statistical analyses were used to explore the associations between social background and testing for rubella antibody and / or vaccination uptake during the previous year.Twenty-four percent of respondents who were planning a pregnancy had been tested for rubella antibody or vaccinated in 2013. However, among those without a current desire for pregnancy, 3% of men and 7% of women, respectively, were tested or vaccinated. Regardless of whether they were planning to conceive, testing for rubella antibodies or vaccination was statistically associated with having acquaintances who had been vaccinated, understanding the government recommendations, and being able to confirm their lack of rubella vaccination history using Maternal and Child Health Handbook records in both men and women.To help eliminate rubella in Japan, additional initiatives need to target Japanese individuals who cannot envisage a direct benefit from vaccination. The results of this study suggest that disseminating the government recommendation to all potentially affected subpopulations, along with maintaining life-time vaccination records might offer a solution to encourage vaccination uptake among working-age adults in Japan, as elsewhere.

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COVID-19 Vaccination Dynamics in the US: Coverage Velocity and Carrying Capacity Based on Socio-demographic Vulnerability Indices in California

Supplementary Information

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