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Predictors of COVID-19 epidemics in countries of the World Health Organization African Region.

ABSTRACT: Countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region have experienced a wide range of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemics. This study aimed to identify predictors of the timing of the first COVID-19 case and the per capita mortality in WHO African Region countries during the first and second pandemic waves and to test for associations with the preparedness of health systems and government pandemic responses. Using a region-wide, country-based observational study, we found that the first case was detected earlier in countries with more urban populations, higher international connectivity and greater COVID-19 test capacity but later in island nations. Predictors of a high first wave per capita mortality rate included a more urban population, higher pre-pandemic international connectivity and a higher prevalence of HIV. Countries rated as better prepared and having more resilient health systems were worst affected by the disease, the imposition of restrictions or both, making any benefit of more stringent countermeasures difficult to detect. Predictors for the second wave were similar to the first. Second wave per capita mortality could be predicted from that of the first wave. The COVID-19 pandemic highlights unanticipated vulnerabilities to infectious disease in Africa that should be taken into account in future pandemic preparedness planning.

SUBMITTER: Zhang F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8604723 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background At a time when a highly contagious pandemic and global political and economic turmoil are intertwined, worldwide cooperation under the leadership of an international organization has become increasingly important. This study aimed to estimate the effect of COVID-19 on public confidence in the World Health Organization (WHO), which will serve as a reference for other international organizations regarding the maintenance of their credibility in crisis management and ability to play a greater role in global health governance. Methods We obtained individual data from the World Values Survey (WVS). A total of 44,775 participants aged 16 and older from 40 countries in six WHO regions were included in this study. The COVID-19 pandemic was used as a natural experiment. We obtained difference-in-differences (DID) estimates of the pandemic’s effects by exploiting temporal variation in the timing of COVID-19 exposure across participants interviewed from 2017 to 2020 together with the geographical variation in COVID-19 severity at the country level. Public confidence in the WHO was self-reported by the respondents. Results Among the participants, 28,087 (62.73%) reported having confidence in the WHO. The DID estimates showed that the COVID-19 pandemic could significantly decrease the likelihood of people reporting confidence in the WHO after controlling for multiple covariates (adjusted OR 0.54, 95% CI: 0.49–0.61), especially during the global outbreak (0.35, 0.24–0.50). The effect was found in both younger individuals (0.58, 0.51–0.66) and older adults (0.49, 0.38–0.63) and in both males (0.47, 0.40–0.55) and females (0.62, 0.53–0.72), with a vulnerability in males (adjusted P for interaction = 0.008). Conclusion Our findings are relevant regarding the impact of COVID-19 on people’s beliefs about social institutions of global standing, highlighting the need for the WHO and other international organizations to shoulder the responsibility of global development for the establishment and maintenance of public credibility in the face of emergencies, as well as the prevention of confidence crises. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12992-022-00872-y.

Project description:BackgroundAchieving financial risk protection for the whole population requires significant financing for health. Health systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) are plagued with persistent underfunding, and recent reductions in official development assistance have been registered. To create fiscal space for health, the pursuit of efficiency gains and exploring innovative health financing for health seem attractive. This paper sought to synthesize available evidence on the nature of innovative health financing instruments, mechanisms and policies implemented in Africa. We further reviewed the factors that hinder or facilitate implementation, the lessons learnt on the structure, the development process and the implementation.MethodsWe conducted a systematic scoping review of the literature to analyze the nature, type, and factors impacting the implementation of innovative health financing mechanisms in the World Health Organization (WHO) African region.ResultsInnovative health financing mechanisms are increasing in the WHO African region as a result of international policy, the need to improve healthy eating and social life of the populace, advocacy and the availability of international mechanisms to which countries can subscribe. The 41 documents included in this review reported ten innovative financing mechanisms in 43 out of the 47 WHO Africa region member states. The most common mechanisms include an excise tax on tobacco products (43 countries) and alcoholic beverages and spirits (41 countries), airline ticket levy (18 countries), sugar-based beverages tax (seven countries), and levy on oil, gas and mineral tax (four countries). Other mechanisms include the human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) trust fund, the social impact bond, the financial transaction tax, mobile phone tax and equity funds. Funds generated from many mechanisms are not allocated to health, although some portions are allocated to health-related activities. In some countries where mechanisms implemented are public health-related, emphasis is placed on positive health behavior beyond raising funds. Persistent resistance from industries due to conflicting economic policies is a major challenge.ConclusionsLeveraging international policies and setting up intersectoral committees to develop and implement innovative mechanisms that involve excise taxes are recommended as possible solutions to the conflicts of interest.

Project description:BackgroundCOVID-19 protective behaviors are key interventions advised by the World Health Organization (WHO) to prevent COVID-19 transmission. However, achieving compliance with this advice is often challenging, particularly among socially vulnerable groups.ObjectiveWe developed a social vulnerability index (SVI) to predict individuals' propensity to adhere to the WHO advice on protective behaviors against COVID-19 and identify changes in social vulnerability as Omicron evolved in African countries between January 2022 and August 2022 and Asia Pacific countries between August 2021 and June 2022.MethodsIn African countries, baseline data were collected from 14 countries (n=15,375) during the first Omicron wave, and follow-up data were collected from 7 countries (n=7179) after the wave. In Asia Pacific countries, baseline data were collected from 14 countries (n=12,866) before the first Omicron wave, and follow-up data were collected from 9 countries (n=8737) after the wave. Countries' socioeconomic and health profiles were retrieved from relevant databases. To construct the SVI for each of the 4 data sets, variables associated with COVID-19 protective behaviors were included in a factor analysis using polychoric correlation with varimax rotation. Influential factors were adjusted for cardinality, summed, and min-max normalized from 0 to 1 (most to least vulnerable). Scores for compliance with the WHO advice were calculated using individuals' self-reported protective behaviors against COVID-19. Multiple linear regression analyses were used to assess the associations between the SVI and scores for compliance to WHO advice to validate the index.ResultsIn Africa, factors contributing to social vulnerability included literacy and media use, trust in health care workers and government, and country income and infrastructure. In Asia Pacific, social vulnerability was determined by literacy, country income and infrastructure, and population density. The index was associated with compliance with the WHO advice in both time points in African countries but only during the follow-up period in Asia Pacific countries. At baseline, the index values in African countries ranged from 0.00 to 0.31 in 13 countries, with 1 country having an index value of 1.00. The index values in Asia Pacific countries ranged from 0.00 to 0.23 in 12 countries, with 2 countries having index values of 0.79 and 1.00. During the follow-up phase, the index values decreased in 6 of 7 African countries and the 2 most vulnerable Asia Pacific countries. The index values of the least vulnerable countries remained unchanged in both regions.ConclusionsIn both regions, significant inequalities in social vulnerability to compliance with WHO advice were observed at baseline, and the gaps became larger after the first Omicron wave. Understanding the dimensions that influence social vulnerability to protective behaviors against COVID-19 may underpin targeted interventions to enhance compliance with WHO recommendations and mitigate the impact of future pandemics among vulnerable groups.

Project description:BackgroundThe health impact of COVID-19 may differ in African settings as compared to countries in Europe or China due to demographic, epidemiological, environmental and socio-economic factors. We evaluated strategies to reduce SARS-CoV-2 burden in African countries, so as to support decisions that balance minimising mortality, protecting health services and safeguarding livelihoods.MethodsWe used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered mathematical model, stratified by age, to predict the evolution of COVID-19 epidemics in three countries representing a range of age distributions in Africa (from oldest to youngest average age: Mauritius, Nigeria and Niger), under various effectiveness assumptions for combinations of different non-pharmaceutical interventions: self-isolation of symptomatic people, physical distancing and 'shielding' (physical isolation) of the high-risk population. We adapted model parameters to better represent uncertainty about what might be expected in African populations, in particular by shifting the distribution of severity risk towards younger ages and increasing the case-fatality ratio. We also present sensitivity analyses for key model parameters subject to uncertainty.ResultsWe predicted median symptomatic attack rates over the first 12 months of 23% (Niger) to 42% (Mauritius), peaking at 2-4 months, if epidemics were unmitigated. Self-isolation while symptomatic had a maximum impact of about 30% on reducing severe cases, while the impact of physical distancing varied widely depending on percent contact reduction and R0. The effect of shielding high-risk people, e.g. by rehousing them in physical isolation, was sensitive mainly to residual contact with low-risk people, and to a lesser extent to contact among shielded individuals. Mitigation strategies incorporating self-isolation of symptomatic individuals, moderate physical distancing and high uptake of shielding reduced predicted peak bed demand and mortality by around 50%. Lockdowns delayed epidemics by about 3 months. Estimates were sensitive to differences in age-specific social mixing patterns, as published in the literature, and assumptions on transmissibility, infectiousness of asymptomatic cases and risk of severe disease or death by age.ConclusionsIn African settings, as elsewhere, current evidence suggests large COVID-19 epidemics are expected. However, African countries have fewer means to suppress transmission and manage cases. We found that self-isolation of symptomatic persons and general physical distancing are unlikely to avert very large epidemics, unless distancing takes the form of stringent lockdown measures. However, both interventions help to mitigate the epidemic. Shielding of high-risk individuals can reduce health service demand and, even more markedly, mortality if it features high uptake and low contact of shielded and unshielded people, with no increase in contact among shielded people. Strategies combining self-isolation, moderate physical distancing and shielding could achieve substantial reductions in mortality in African countries. Temporary lockdowns, where socioeconomically acceptable, can help gain crucial time for planning and expanding health service capacity.

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Predictors of COVID-19 epidemics in countries of the World Health Organization African Region.

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