Predictors of COVID-19 epidemics in countries of the World Health Organization African Region.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Zhang F
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8604723 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Large-scale protracted outbreaks can be prevented through early detection, notification, and rapid control. We assessed trends in timeliness of detecting and responding to outbreaks in the African Region reported to the World Health Organization during 2017-2019. We computed the median time to each outbreak milestone and assessed the rates of change over time using univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analyses. We selected 296 outbreaks from 348 public reported health events and evaluated 184 for time to detection, 232 for time to notification, and 201 for time to end. Time to detection and end decreased over time, whereas time to notification increased. Multiple factors can account for these findings, including scaling up support to member states after the World Health Organization established its Health Emergencies Programme and support given to countries from donors and partners to strengthen their core capacities for meeting International Health Regulations.
| S-EPMC7588517 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAlthough it is known that childhood attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) often persists into adulthood, childhood predictors of this persistence have not been widely studied.MethodsChildhood history of ADHD and adult ADHD were assessed in 10 countries in the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys. Logistic regression analysis was used to study associations of retrospectively reported childhood risk factors with adult persistence among the 629 adult respondents with childhood ADHD. Risk factors included age; sex; childhood ADHD symptom profiles, severity, and treatment; comorbid child/adolescent DSM-IV disorders; childhood family adversities; and child/adolescent exposure to traumatic events.ResultsAn average of 50% of children with ADHD (range: 32.8%-84.1% across countries) continued to meet DSM-IV criteria for ADHD as adults. Persistence was strongly related to childhood ADHD symptom profile (highest persistence associated with the attentional plus impulsive-hyperactive type, odds ratio [OR]=12.4, compared with the lowest associated with the impulsive-hyperactive type), symptom severity (OR=2.0), comorbid major depressive disorder (MDD; OR=2.2), high comorbidity (>or=3 child/adolescent disorders in addition to ADHD; OR=1.7), paternal (but not maternal) anxiety mood disorder (OR=2.4), and parental antisocial personality disorder (OR=2.2). A multivariate risk profile of these variables significantly predicts persistence of ADHD into adulthood (area under the receiving operator characteristic curve=.76).ConclusionsA substantial proportion of children with ADHD continue to meet full criteria for ADHD as adults. A multivariate risk index comprising variables that can be assessed in adolescence predicts persistence with good accuracy.
| S-EPMC2629074 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHealth 2020 is the regional health policy framework of the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Europe. The goals of Health 2020 are to improve health and well-being, reduce health inequalities and strengthen public health. To gain insight into the Health 2020 targets needing extra attention in coming years, we assessed progress under Health 2020 in the WHO European Region.MethodsQuantitative methods were used to assess progress in 50 out of 53 Member States of the WHO European Region in 2005, 2010 and 2015. The 16 quantitative Health 2020 indicators were rescaled from 1 to 100, with 1 indicating poor performance and 100 indicating good performance. The geometric mean of all 16 rescaled indicators was taken by Health 2020 target to compose a Health 2020 index.ResultsThe Health 2020 index (2015) ranged from 82.8 in Sweden to 30.0 in Turkmenistan. A clear east-west gradient was observed in the WHO European Region, with countries in western parts performing relatively better than countries in eastern parts. Indicators with the largest increase between 2005 and 2015 were premature mortality, mortality external causes, life expectancy and infant mortality. However, all quintiles showed a decline on overweight.ConclusionsThe Health 2020 index gives a relative overview regarding the past and present performance on the Health 2020 policy framework of countries in the WHO European Region. Although improvements have been observed between 2005 and 2015, challenges remain to improve health for all in the context of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
| S-EPMC7733045 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe health impact of COVID-19 may differ in African settings as compared to countries in Europe or China due to demographic, epidemiological, environmental and socio-economic factors. We evaluated strategies to reduce SARS-CoV-2 burden in African countries, so as to support decisions that balance minimising mortality, protecting health services and safeguarding livelihoods.MethodsWe used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered mathematical model, stratified by age, to predict the evolution of COVID-19 epidemics in three countries representing a range of age distributions in Africa (from oldest to youngest average age: Mauritius, Nigeria and Niger), under various effectiveness assumptions for combinations of different non-pharmaceutical interventions: self-isolation of symptomatic people, physical distancing and 'shielding' (physical isolation) of the high-risk population. We adapted model parameters to better represent uncertainty about what might be expected in African populations, in particular by shifting the distribution of severity risk towards younger ages and increasing the case-fatality ratio. We also present sensitivity analyses for key model parameters subject to uncertainty.ResultsWe predicted median symptomatic attack rates over the first 12 months of 23% (Niger) to 42% (Mauritius), peaking at 2-4 months, if epidemics were unmitigated. Self-isolation while symptomatic had a maximum impact of about 30% on reducing severe cases, while the impact of physical distancing varied widely depending on percent contact reduction and R0. The effect of shielding high-risk people, e.g. by rehousing them in physical isolation, was sensitive mainly to residual contact with low-risk people, and to a lesser extent to contact among shielded individuals. Mitigation strategies incorporating self-isolation of symptomatic individuals, moderate physical distancing and high uptake of shielding reduced predicted peak bed demand and mortality by around 50%. Lockdowns delayed epidemics by about 3 months. Estimates were sensitive to differences in age-specific social mixing patterns, as published in the literature, and assumptions on transmissibility, infectiousness of asymptomatic cases and risk of severe disease or death by age.ConclusionsIn African settings, as elsewhere, current evidence suggests large COVID-19 epidemics are expected. However, African countries have fewer means to suppress transmission and manage cases. We found that self-isolation of symptomatic persons and general physical distancing are unlikely to avert very large epidemics, unless distancing takes the form of stringent lockdown measures. However, both interventions help to mitigate the epidemic. Shielding of high-risk individuals can reduce health service demand and, even more markedly, mortality if it features high uptake and low contact of shielded and unshielded people, with no increase in contact among shielded people. Strategies combining self-isolation, moderate physical distancing and shielding could achieve substantial reductions in mortality in African countries. Temporary lockdowns, where socioeconomically acceptable, can help gain crucial time for planning and expanding health service capacity.
| S-EPMC7553800 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundBacterial meningitis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. We analyzed data from the World Health Organization's (WHO) Invasive Bacterial Vaccine-preventable Diseases Surveillance Network (2011-2016) to describe the epidemiology of laboratory-confirmed Streptococcus pneumoniae (Spn), Neisseria meningitidis, and Haemophilus influenzae meningitis within the WHO African Region. We also evaluated declines in vaccine-type pneumococcal meningitis following pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction.MethodsReports of meningitis in children <5 years old from sentinel surveillance hospitals in 26 countries were classified as suspected, probable, or confirmed. Confirmed meningitis cases were analyzed by age group and subregion (South-East and West-Central). We described case fatality ratios (CFRs), pathogen distribution, and annual changes in serotype and serogroup, including changes in vaccine-type Spn meningitis following PCV introduction.ResultsAmong 49 844 reported meningitis cases, 1670 (3.3%) were laboratory-confirmed. Spn (1007/1670 [60.3%]) was the most commonly detected pathogen; vaccine-type Spn meningitis cases declined over time. CFR was the highest for Spn meningitis: 12.9% (46/357) in the South-East subregion and 30.9% (89/288) in the West-Central subregion. Meningitis caused by N. meningitidis was more common in West-Central than South-East Africa (321/954 [33.6%] vs 110/716 [15.4%]; P < .0001). Haemophilus influenzae (232/1670 [13.9%]) was the least prevalent organism.ConclusionsSpn was the most common cause of pediatric bacterial meningitis in the African region even after reported cases declined following PCV introduction. Sustaining robust surveillance is essential to monitor changes in pathogen distribution and to inform and guide vaccination policies.
| S-EPMC6736400 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC10948128 | biostudies-literature
Project description:During 2005-2006, nine measles virus (MV) genotypes were identified throughout the World Health Organization European Region. All major epidemics were associated with genotypes D4, D6, and B3. Other genotypes (B2, D5, D8, D9, G2, and H1) were only found in limited numbers of cases after importation from other continents. The genetic diversity of endemic D6 strains was low; genotypes C2 and D7, circulating in Europe until recent years, were no longer identified. The transmission chains of several indigenous MV strains may thus have been interrupted by enhanced vaccination. However, multiple importations from Africa and Asia and virus introduction into highly mobile and unvaccinated communities caused a massive spread of D4 and B3 strains throughout much of the region. Thus, despite the reduction of endemic MV circulation, importation of MV from other continents caused prolonged circulation and large outbreaks after their introduction into unvaccinated and highly mobile communities.
| S-EPMC2600148 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAccording to the most recent estimates, 842,000 deaths in low- to middle-income countries were attributable to inadequate water, sanitation and hygiene in 2012. Despite billions of dollars and decades of effort, we still lack a sound understanding of which kinds of WASH interventions are most effective in improving public health outcomes, and an important corollary-whether the right things are being measured. The World Health Organization (WHO) has made a concerted effort to compile comprehensive data on drinking water quality and sanitation in the developing world. A recent 2014 report provides information on three phenotypes (responses): Unsafe Water Deaths, Unsafe Sanitation Deaths, Unsafe Hygiene Deaths; two grouped phenotypes: Unsafe Water and Sanitation Deaths and Unsafe Water, Sanitation and Hygiene Deaths; and six explanatory variables (predictors): Improved Sanitation, Unimproved Water Source, Piped Water To Premises, Other Improved Water Source, Filtered and Bottled Water in the Household and Handwashing.Methods and findingsRegression analyses were performed to identify statistically significant associations between these mortality responses and predictors. Good fitted-model performance required: (1) the use of population-normalized death fractions as opposed to number of deaths; (2) transformed response (logit or power); and (3) square-root predictor transformation. Given the complexity and heterogeneity of the relationships and countries being studied, these models exhibited remarkable performance and explained, for example, about 85% of the observed variance in population-normalized Unsafe Sanitation Death fraction, with a high F-statistic and highly statistically significant predictor p-values. Similar performance was found for all other responses, which was an unexpected result (the expected associations between responses and predictors-i.e., water-related with water-related, etc. did not occur). The set of statistically significant predictors remains the same across all responses. That is, Unsafe Water Source (UWS), Improved Sanitation (IS) and Filtered and Bottled Water in the Household (FBH) were the only statistically significant predictors whether the response was Unsafe Sanitation Death Fraction, Unsafe Hygiene Death Fraction or Unsafe Water Death Fraction. Moreover, the fraction of variance explained for all fitted models remained relatively high (adjusted R2 ranges from 0.7605 to 0.8533). We find that two of the statistically significant predictors-Improved Sanitation and Unimproved Water Sources-are particularly influential. We also find that some predictors (Piped Water to Premises, Other Improved Water Sources) have very little explanatory power for predicting mortality and one (Other Improved Water Sources) has a counterintuitive effect on response (Unsafe Sanitary Death Fraction increases with increases in OIWS) and one predictor (Hand Washing) to have essentially no explanatory usefulness.ConclusionsOur results suggest that a higher priority may need to be given to improved sanitation than has been the case. Nevertheless, while our focus in this paper is mortality, morbidity is a staggering consequence of inadequate water, sanitation and hygiene, and lower impact on mortality may not mean a similarly low impact on morbidity. More specifically, those predictors that we found uninfluential for predicting mortality-related responses may indeed be important when morbidity is the response.
| S-EPMC5268457 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In December 2019, a cluster of atypical Pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China were reported to the World Health Organization (WHO). Later, those cases were attributed to a novel respiratory virus currently known as COVID-19. The infection is affecting every continent. It was characterized by WHO as a global pandemic on 11 March 2020. Countries worldwide are implementing various preventive measures to contain the spread of the infection such as travel and trade restrictions, closure of educational institutions and shops, and some took more strict measures such as imposing curfew. WHO is emphasizing the importance of early detection of cases, contact tracing, risk communications, implementing multisectoral approach in order to combat COVID-19 infection. Countries should provide the public with accurate, transparent information about the local and global situation of this escalating infection. Much uncertainty still surrounds this viral infection, its modes of transmission and dynamics. Epidemiological investigations particularly for the first few cases of COVID-19 infection are critical to expand our knowledge about this evolving pandemic. In this review we summarized the data available about the first few cases and fatalities of COVID-19 infection up to 18 March 2020 across Eastern Mediterranean Region of the World Health Organization. such data were only available in websites of ministries of health of the targeted countries, WHO situational reports, online newspapers, and other media channels and this gave us an idea about the amount and type of data available for the public regarding this evolving infection.
| S-EPMC7303600 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundGovernments across the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region have prioritised dashboards for reporting COVID-19 data. The ubiquitous use of dashboards for public reporting is a novel phenomenon.ObjectiveThis study explores the development of COVID-19 dashboards during the first year of the pandemic and identifies common barriers, enablers and lessons from the experiences of teams responsible for their development.MethodsWe applied multiple methods to identify and recruit COVID-19 dashboard teams, using a purposive, quota sampling approach. Semi-structured group interviews were conducted from April to June 2021. Using elaborative coding and thematic analysis, we derived descriptive and explanatory themes from the interview data. A validation workshop was held with study participants in June 2021.ResultsEighty informants participated, representing 33 national COVID-19 dashboard teams across the WHO European Region. Most dashboards were launched swiftly during the first months of the pandemic, February to May 2020. The urgency, intense workload, limited human resources, data and privacy constraints and public scrutiny were common challenges in the initial development stage. Themes related to barriers or enablers were identified, pertaining to the pre-pandemic context, pandemic itself, people and processes and software, data and users. Lessons emerged around the themes of simplicity, trust, partnership, software and data and change.ConclusionsCOVID-19 dashboards were developed in a learning-by-doing approach. The experiences of teams reveal that initial underpreparedness was offset by high-level political endorsement, the professionalism of teams, accelerated data improvements and immediate support with commercial software solutions. To leverage the full potential of dashboards for health data reporting, investments are needed at the team, national and pan-European levels.
| S-EPMC9434660 | biostudies-literature