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Controlling long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections can slow viral evolution and reduce the risk of treatment failure

ABSTRACT: The rapid emergence and expansion of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants threatens our ability to achieve herd immunity for COVID-19. These novel SARS-CoV-2 variants often harbor multiple point mutations, conferring one or more evolutionarily advantageous traits, such as increased transmissibility, immune evasion and longer infection duration. In a number of cases, variant emergence has been linked to long-term infections in individuals who were either immunocompromised or treated with convalescent plasma. In this paper, we used a stochastic evolutionary modeling framework to explore the emergence of fitter variants of SARS-CoV-2 during long-term infections. We found that increased viral load and infection duration favor emergence of such variants. While the overall probability of emergence and subsequent transmission from any given infection is low, on a population level these events occur fairly frequently. Targeting these low-probability stochastic events that lead to the establishment of novel advantageous viral variants might allow us to slow the rate at which they emerge in the patient population, and prevent them from spreading deterministically due to natural selection. Our work thus suggests practical ways to achieve control of long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections, which will be critical for slowing the rate of viral evolution.

SUBMITTER: Van Egeren D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8604936 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background: Testing of possibly infected individuals remains cornerstone of containing the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Detection dogs could contribute to mass screening. Previous research demonstrated canines' ability to detect SARS-CoV-2-infections but has not investigated if dogs can differentiate between COVID-19 and other virus infections. Methods: Twelve dogs were trained to detect SARS-CoV-2 positive samples. Three test scenarios were performed to evaluate their ability to discriminate SARS-CoV-2-infections from viral infections of a different aetiology. Naso- and oropharyngeal swab samples from individuals and samples from cell culture both infected with one of 15 viruses that may cause COVID-19-like symptoms were presented as distractors in a randomised, double-blind study. Dogs were either trained with SARS-CoV-2 positive saliva samples (test scenario I and II) or with supernatant from cell cultures (test scenario III). Results: When using swab samples from individuals infected with viruses other than SARS-CoV-2 as distractors (test scenario I), dogs detected swab samples from SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals with a mean diagnostic sensitivity of 73.8% (95% CI: 66.0-81.7%) and a specificity of 95.1% (95% CI: 92.6-97.7%). In test scenario II and III cell culture supernatant from cells infected with SARS-CoV-2, cells infected with other coronaviruses and non-infected cells were presented. Dogs achieved mean diagnostic sensitivities of 61.2% (95% CI: 50.7-71.6%, test scenario II) and 75.8% (95% CI: 53.0-98.5%, test scenario III), respectively. The diagnostic specificities were 90.9% (95% CI: 87.3-94.6%, test scenario II) and 90.2% (95% CI: 81.1-99.4%, test scenario III), respectively. Conclusion: In all three test scenarios the mean specificities were above 90% which indicates that dogs can distinguish SARS-CoV-2-infections from other viral infections. However, compared to earlier studies our scent dogs achieved lower diagnostic sensitivities. To deploy COVID-19 detection dogs as a reliable screening method it is therefore mandatory to include a variety of samples from different viral respiratory tract infections in dog training to ensure a successful discrimination process.

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Controlling long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections can slow viral evolution and reduce the risk of treatment failure

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