Diagnostic models for impending death in terminally ill cancer patients: A multicenter cohort study.
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ABSTRACT: Background
Accurately predicting impending death is essential for clinicians to clarify goals of care. We aimed to develop diagnostic models to predict death ≤3 days in cancer patients.Methods
In this multicenter cohort study, we consecutively enrolled advanced cancer patients admitted to 23 inpatient hospices in 2017. Fifteen clinical signs related to impending death were documented daily from the day when the Palliative Performance Scale (PPS) declined to ≤20-14 days later. We conducted recursive partitioning analysis using the entire data set and performed cross-validation to develop the model (prediction of 3-day impending death-decision tree [P3did-DT]). Then, we summed the number of systems (nervous/cardiovascular/respiratory/musculoskeletal), where any sign was present to underpin P3did score (range = 0-4).Results
Data following PPS ≤20 were obtained from 1396 of 1896 inpatients (74%). The mean age was 73 ± 12 years, and 399 (29%) had gastrointestinal tract cancer. The P3did-DT was based on three variables and had four terminal leaves: urine output (u/o) ≤200 ml/day and decreased response to verbal stimuli, u/o ≤200 ml/day and no decreased response to verbal stimuli, u/o >200 ml/day and Richmond Agitation-Sedation Scale (RASS) ≤-2, and u/o >200 ml/day and RASS ≥-1. The 3-day mortality rates were 80.3%, 53.3%, 39.9%, and 20.6%, respectively (accuracy = 68.3%). In addition, 79.6%, 62.9%, 47.2%, 32.8%, and 17.4% of patients with P3did scores of 4, 3, 2, 1, and 0, respectively, died ≤3 days.Conclusion
We successfully developed diagnostic models for death ≤3 days. These may further help clinicians predict impending death and help patients/families prepare for their final days.
SUBMITTER: Mori M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8607266 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectivesTo determine the relative influence of different factors on place of death in patients with cancer.Data sourcesFour electronic databases-Medline (1966-2004), PsycINFO (1972-2004), CINAHL (1982-2004), and ASSIA (1987-2004); previous contacts with key experts; hand search of six relevant journals.Review methodsWe generated a conceptual model, against which studies were analysed. Included studies had original data on risk factors for place of death among patients, > 80% of whom had cancer. Strength of evidence was assigned according to the quantity and quality of studies and consistency of findings. Odds ratios for home death were plotted for factors with high strength evidence.Results58 studies were included, with over 1.5 million patients from 13 countries. There was high strength evidence for the effect of 17 factors on place of death, of which six were strongly associated with home death: patients' low functional status (odds ratios range 2.29-11.1), their preferences (2.19-8.38), home care (1.37-5.1) and its intensity (1.06-8.65), living with relatives (1.78-7.85), and extended family support (2.28-5.47). The risk factors covered all groups of the model: related to illness, the individual, and the environment (healthcare input and social support), the latter found to be the most important.ConclusionsThe ne of factors that influence where patients with cancer die is complicated. Future policies and clinical practice should focus on ways of empowering families and public education, as well as intensifying home care, risk assessment, and training practitioners in end of life care.
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Project description:BackgroundSubstantial interstudy heterogeneity exists in defining acute kidney injury (AKI) and baseline serum creatinine (SCr). This study assessed AKI incidence and its association with pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) mortality under different AKI and baseline SCr definitions to determine the preferable approach for diagnosing pediatric AKI.MethodsIn this multicenter prospective observational cohort study, AKI was defined and staged according to the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcome (KDIGO), modified KDIGO, and pediatric reference change value optimized for AKI (pROCK) definitions. The baseline SCr was calculated based on the Schwartz formula or estimated as the upper normative value (NormsMax), admission SCr (AdmSCr) and modified AdmSCr. The impacts of different AKI definitions and baseline SCr estimation methods on AKI incidence, severity distribution and AKI outcome were evaluated.ResultsDifferent AKI definitions and baseline SCr estimates led to differences in AKI incidence, from 6.8 to 25.7%; patients with AKI across all definitions had higher PICU mortality ranged from 19.0 to 35.4%. A higher AKI incidence (25.7%) but lower mortality (19.0%) was observed based on the Schwartz according to the KDIGO definition, which however was overcome by modified KDIGO (AKI incidence: 16.3%, PICU mortality: 26.1%). Furthermore, for the modified KDIGO, the consistencies of AKI stages between different baseline SCr estimation methods were all strong with the concordance rates > 90.0% and weighted kappa values > 0.8, and PICU mortality increased pursuant to staging based on the Schwartz. When the NormsMax was used, the KDIGO and modified KDIGO led to an identical AKI incidence (13.6%), but PICU mortality did not differ among AKI stages. For the pROCK, PICU mortality did not increase pursuant to staging and AKI stage 3 was not associated with mortality after adjustment for confounders.ConclusionsThe AKI incidence and staging vary depending on the definition and baseline SCr estimation method used. The modified KDIGO definition based on the Schwartz method leads AKI to be highly relevant to PICU mortality, suggesting that it may be the preferable approach for diagnosing AKI in critically ill children and provides promise for improving clinicians' ability to diagnose pediatric AKI.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Many terminally ill patients in Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH) fail to receive needed medical attention and social support. In 2016 a primary healthcare centreer (PHCC) in Doboj (BiH) requested the methodological and technical support of a local partner (Fondacija fami) and the Geneva University Hospitals to address the needs of terminally ill patients living at home. In order to design acceptable, affordable and sustainable solutions, we involved patients and their families in exploring needs, barriers and available resources. METHODS:We conducted interviews with 62 purposely selected patients using a semi-structured interview guide designed to elicit patients' experiences, needs and expectations. Both qualitative and quantitative analyses were conducted, using an inductive thematic approach. RESULTS:While patients were aware that their illnesses were incurable, they were poorly informed about medical and social support resources available to them. Family members appeared to be patients' main source of support, and often suffered from exhaustion and financial strain. Patients expressed feelings of helplessness and lack of control over their health. They wanted more support from health professionals for pain and other symptom management, as well as for anxiety and depression. Patients who were bedridden or with reduced mobility expressed strong feelings of loneliness, social exclusion, and stigma from community members and - occasionally - from health workers. CONCLUSIONS:Our findings suggest a wide gap between patients' end-of-life care needs and existing services. In order to address the medical, psychological and social needs of terminally ill patients, a multi-pronged approach is called for, including not only better symptom management through training of health professionals and improved access to medication and equipment, but also a coordinated inter-professional, inter-institutional and multi-stakeholder effort aimed at offering comprehensive medical, psycho-social, educational and spiritual support.
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Project description:BackgroundImmunocompromised critically ill patients constitute a population with the high risk of candidemia. This retrospective study aimed to assess the outcome of immunocompromised critically ill patients with candidemia. Secondary objectives were to describe clinical phenotypes of these patients, Candida ecology, and factors associated with mortality.ResultsOverall, 121 patients were included in this study. Median delay from candidemia to first antifungal therapy was 3 days, in line with the observed delay of blood culture positivity. Candia albicans was the main Candida specie identified (54%), and susceptibility of Candida to fluconazole and echinocandins was of, respectively, 70% and 92%. Hospital mortality was of 60%. After adjustment for confounders, severity as assessed by the need for vasopressors (HR 1.8, CI95% 1.1-3.1), need for mechanical ventilation (HR 2.0, CI95% 1.1-3.8) and allogenic stem cell transplantation (HR 2.5, CI95% 1.1-6.0) were independently associated with poor outcome. Candida specie, susceptibility and treatment strategies were not associated with outcome.ConclusionsCandidemia in immunocompromised critically ill patients is associated with a grim outcome. Despite the high prevalence of Candida non-albicans species, neither C. species nor its susceptibility was associated with outcome. Conversely, severity and preexisting allogeneic stem cell transplantation were independently associated with poor outcome. Despite antifungal prophylaxis and use of preemptive antifungal therapy in neutropenic patients, antifungal therapy was initiated three days after symptoms onset suggesting needs for specific strategies aiming to reduce this delay.
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Project description:To provide an appropriate method to systematically analyze the hospital discharge of terminally ill patients especially the cooperation between hospital and community nurses and the quality of the discharge handovers. To evaluate the hospital discharge process of terminally ill patients in an academic hospital in the Netherlands using the proposed method.Data were collected from a prospective cohort of all terminally ill patients discharged from the University Medical Center Groningen, the Netherlands, between June and November 2014. The hospital discharges were assessed using 2 questionnaires: an inventory questionnaire, to determine the required care, and an evaluation questionnaire, to evaluate the care actually organized and the discharge handovers. The inventory questionnaire was completed prior to discharge and the evaluation questionnaire between 3 to 7 days after discharge.Around 130 consecutive patients were included. The discharge took place on the desired date in 86% of cases and the average overall discharge grade on a 10-point scale was 7.4 (range: 3-9.5). In 23% of cases discrepancies between required and provided care were identified and medication queries existed in 29%.This study provides a methodology to analyze the hospital discharge procedure of terminally ill patients that can be utlized in any hospital. Structured analysis of the discharge process is valuable and identifies where improvements can be made. Within the study cohort the home care could be arranged at short notice and was considered sufficient. However, in a significant proportion of patients a discrepancy between required and arranged care and queries about medication were identified.
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Project description:AimsMidazolam is the drug of choice for palliative sedation and is titrated to achieve the desired level of sedation. Because of large inter-individual variability (IIV), however, the time it takes to achieve adequate sedation varies widely. It would therefore greatly improve clinical care if an individualized dose could be determined beforehand. To find clinically relevant parameters for dose individualization, we performed a pharmacokinetic study on midazolam, 1OH-midazolam (1-OH-M) and 1OH-midazolam-glucuronide (1-OH-MG) in terminally ill patients.MethodsUsing nonlinear mixed effects modelling (NONMEM 7.2), a population pharmacokinetic analysis was conducted with 192 samples from 45 terminally ill patients who received midazolam either orally or subcutaneously. The covariates analysed were patient characteristics, co-medication and blood chemistry levels.ResultsThe data were accurately described by a one compartment model for midazolam, 1-OH-M and 1-OH-MG. The population mean estimates for midazolam, 1-OH-M and 1-OH-MG clearance were 8.4 l h-1 (RSE 9%, IIV 49%), 45.4 l h-1 (RSE 12%, IIV 60.5%) and 5.1 l h-1 (RSE 11%, IIV 49.9%), respectively. 1-OH-MG clearance was correlated with the estimated glomular filtration rate (eGFR) explaining 28.4% of the IIV in 1-OH-MG clearance. In addition, low albumin levels were associated with decreased midazolam clearance, explaining 18.2% of the IIV.ConclusionOur study indicates albumin levels and eGFR as relevant clinical parameters to optimize midazolam dosing in terminally ill patients. The correlation between low albumin levels and decreased midazolam clearance is probably a result of inflammatory response as high CRP levels were correlated in a similar way.
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Project description:BackgroundCOVID-19 characterized by refractory hypoxemia increases patient mortality because of immunosuppression effects. This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of immunomodulatory with thymosin α1 for critical COVID-19 patients.MethodsThis multicenter retrospective cohort study was performed in 8 government-designated treatment centers for COVID-19 patients in China from Dec. 2019 to Mar. 2020. Thymosin α1 was administrated with 1.6 mg qd or q12 h for >5 days. The primary outcomes were the 28-day and 60-day mortality, the secondary outcomes were hospital length of stay and the total duration of the disease. Subgroup analysis was carried out according to clinical classification.ResultsOf the 334 enrolled COVID-19 patients, 42 (12.6%) died within 28 days, and 55 (16.5%) died within 60 days of hospitalization. There was a significant difference in the 28-day mortality between the thymosin α1 and non-thymosin α1-treated groups in adjusted model (P = 0.016), without obvious differences in the 60-day mortality and survival time in the overall cohort (P > 0.05). In the subgroup analysis, it was found that thymosin α1 therapy significantly reduced 28-day mortality (Hazards Ratios HR, 0.11, 95% confidence interval CI 0.02-0.63, P=0.013) via improvement of Pa02/FiO2 (P = 0.036) and prolonged the hospital length of stay (P = 0.024) as well as the total duration of the disease (P=0.001) in the critical type patients, especially those aged over 64 years, with white blood cell >6.8×109/L, neutrophil >5.3×109/L, lymphocyte < 0.73 × 109/L, PaO2/FiO2 < 196, SOFA > 3, and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II > 7.ConclusionThese results suggest that treatment with thymosin α1 can markedly decrease 28-day mortality and attenuate acute lung injury in critical type COVID-19 patients.
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Project description:BackgroundMechanical ventilation (MV) is an important lifesaving method in intensive care unit (ICU). Prolonged MV is associated with ventilator associated pneumonia (VAP) and other complications. However, premature weaning from MV may lead to higher risk of reintubation or mortality. Therefore, timely and safe weaning from MV is important. In addition, identification of the right patient and performing a suitable weaning process is necessary. Although several guidelines about weaning have been reported, compliance with these guidelines is unknown. Therefore, the aim of this study is to explore the variation of weaning in China, associations between initial MV reason and clinical outcomes, and factors associated with weaning strategies using a multicenter cohort.MethodsThis multicenter retrospective cohort study will be conducted at 17 adult ICUs in China, that included patients who were admitted in this 17 ICUs between October 2020 and February 2021. Patients under 18 years of age and patients without the possibility for weaning will be excluded. The questionnaire information will be registered by a specific clinician in each center who has been evaluated and qualified to carry out the study.DiscussionIn a previous observational study of weaning in 17 ICUs in China, weaning practices varies nationally. Therefore, a multicenter retrospective cohort study is necessary to be conducted to explore the present weaning methods used in China.Trial registrationChinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR) (No. ChiCTR2100044634).
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