Lockdowns lose one third of their impact on mobility in a month
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Joshi Y
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8608930 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Assessing the impact of mobility on epidemic spreading is of crucial importance for understanding the effect of policies like mass quarantines and selective re-openings. While many factors affect disease incidence at a local level, making it more or less homogeneous with respect to other areas, the importance of multi-seeding has often been overlooked. Multi-seeding occurs when several independent (non-clustered) infected individuals arrive at a susceptible population. This can lead to independent outbreaks that spark from distinct areas of the local contact (social) network. Such mechanism has the potential to boost incidence, making control efforts and contact tracing less effective. Here, through a modeling approach we show that the effect produced by the number of initial infections is non-linear on the incidence peak and peak time. When case importations are carried by mobility from an already infected area, this effect is further enhanced by the local demography and underlying mixing patterns: the impact of every seed is larger in smaller populations. Finally, both in the model simulations and the analysis, we show that a multi-seeding effect combined with mobility restrictions can explain the observed spatial heterogeneities in the first wave of COVID-19 incidence and mortality in five European countries. Our results allow us for identifying what we have called epidemic epicenter: an area that shapes incidence and mortality peaks in the entire country. The present work further clarifies the nonlinear effects that mobility can have on the evolution of an epidemic and highlight their relevance for epidemic control.
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Project description:During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have attempted to control infections within their territories by implementing border controls and lockdowns. While large-scale quarantine has been the most successful short-term policy, the enormous costs exerted by lockdowns over long periods are unsustainable. As such, developing more flexible policies that limit transmission without requiring large-scale quarantine is an urgent priority. Here, the dynamics of dismantled community mobility structures within US society during the COVID-19 outbreak are analysed by applying the Louvain method with modularity optimization to weekly datasets of mobile device locations. Our networks are built based on individuals' movements from February to May 2020. In a multi-scale community detection process using the locations of confirmed cases, natural break points from mobility patterns as well as high risk areas for contagion are identified at three scales. Deviations from administrative boundaries were observed in detected communities, indicating that policies informed by assumptions of disease containment within administrative boundaries do not account for high risk patterns of movement across and through these boundaries. We have designed a multi-level quarantine process that takes these deviations into account based on the heterogeneity in mobility patterns. For communities with high numbers of confirmed cases, contact tracing and associated quarantine policies informed by underlying dismantled community mobility structures is of increasing importance.
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Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic has induced many issues for all societal sectors, in particular in the production and disposal of municipal solid waste. This may be because successive easing and reimposing of lockdown measures have deeply changed people's movements, consumers' behaviors and waste management. Previous studies have focused on the short-term effects of lockdowns on waste changes, yet there is little knowledge on waste variations during successive lockdowns and unlocking of various lockdown intensities. Moreover, the efficiency of lockdown and its relation to people's mobility in different countries are still not clear. Here, we studied the variations of amount and composition of municipal solid waste before the pandemic in 2019 and during the pandemic in 2020-2021 in USA, Brazil, Canada, UK, France and Italy. We used a stringency index and a composite mobility index to assess the lockdown intensity and people's movements. Results show that the mobility index sharply decreased with lockdown intensity, and enforcing measures were more efficient in France and Italy. Compared to 2019, prolonged lockdowns caused larger decreases in the quantity of commercial and construction wastes versus household waste. The initial implementation of lockdown or unlocking measures promoted inhabitants' consumption, generally leading to the increased waste amount, by about 9% for Trento and 12% for Montreal at the beginning of lockdown, respectively. Moreover, larger variations in the waste amount in Trento, from - 25.3 to 9.8%, were in line with higher lockdown intensity compared to those in Montreal, from - 9.5 to 12.7%, affected by people's mobility, consumers' behaviors and waste management.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10311-021-01290-z.
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Project description:In response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, unprecedented travel restrictions and stay-at-home orders were enacted around the world. Ultimately, the public's response to announcements of lockdowns-defined as restrictions on both local movement or long distance travel-will determine how effective these kinds of interventions are. Here, we evaluate the effects of lockdowns on human mobility and simulate how these changes may affect epidemic spread by analyzing aggregated mobility data from mobile phones. We show that in 2020 following lockdown announcements but prior to their implementation, both local and long distance movement increased in multiple locations, and urban-to-rural migration was observed around the world. To examine how these behavioral responses to lockdown policies may contribute to epidemic spread, we developed a simple agent-based spatial model. Our model shows that this increased movement has the potential to increase seeding of the epidemic in less urban areas, which could undermine the goal of the lockdown in preventing disease spread. Lockdowns play a key role in reducing contacts and controlling outbreaks, but appropriate messaging surrounding their announcement and careful evaluation of changes in mobility are needed to mitigate the possible unintended consequences.
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Project description:Objective: To investigate the association between functional status and post-acute care (PAC) transition(s). Methods: Secondary analysis of 2013-2014 Medicare data for individuals aged ≥66 years with stroke, lower extremity joint replacements, and hip/femur fracture discharged to one of three PAC settings (inpatient rehabilitation facilities, skilled nursing facilities, and home health agencies). Functional scores were co-calibrated into a 0-100 scale across settings. Multilevel logistic regression was used to test the partition of variance (%) and the probability of PAC transition attributed to the functional score in the initial PAC setting. Results: Patients discharged to inpatient rehabilitation facilities with higher function were less likely to use additional PAC. Function level in an inpatient rehabilitation facility explained more of the variance in PAC transitions than function level while in a skilled nursing facility. Discussion: The function level affected PAC transitions more for those discharged to an inpatient rehabilitation facility than to a skilled nursing facility.
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Project description:Transmasculine people usually reach amenorrhea within 6 months of adequate testosterone treatment. It is often assumed that no ovulation occurs during amenorrhea. However, in this study, we report recent ovulatory activity in amenorrheic transmasculine people on testosterone therapy at gender-affirming oophorectomy. Histological signs of recent ovulatory activity, including the presence of ovulatory follicles, corpus luteum, and corpus albicans, are observed in 17 of 52 individuals (33%). This is not significantly correlated to the duration, testosterone serum levels, or type of testosterone used. These results suggest that amenorrhea does not equal anovulation in transmasculine people on adequate testosterone therapy, emphasizing the importance of contraception for people who engage in sexual activity that can result in pregnancy.
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Project description:Estimating the impact of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence is complicated by several factors, including successive emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and changing population immunity from vaccination and infection. We develop an age-structured multi-strain COVID-19 transmission model and inference framework to estimate vaccination and non-pharmaceutical intervention impact accounting for these factors. We apply this framework to COVID-19 waves in French Polynesia and estimate that the vaccination programme averted 34.8% (95% credible interval: 34.5-35.2%) of 223,000 symptomatic cases, 49.6% (48.7-50.5%) of 5830 hospitalisations and 64.2% (63.1-65.3%) of 1540 hospital deaths that would have occurred in a scenario without vaccination up to May 2022. We estimate the booster campaign contributed 4.5%, 1.9%, and 0.4% to overall reductions in cases, hospitalisations, and deaths. Our results suggest that removing lockdowns during the first two waves would have had non-linear effects on incidence by altering accumulation of population immunity. Our estimates of vaccination and booster impact differ from those for other countries due to differences in age structure, previous exposure levels and timing of variant introduction relative to vaccination, emphasising the importance of detailed analysis that accounts for these factors.
| S-EPMC10643399 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The coronavirus pandemic has severely affected our daily lives, with direct consequences on passenger transport. This in turn has strongly impacted the energy demand of the transport sector and associated CO2 emissions. We analyse near real-time passenger mobility and related emission trends in Europe between 21 January and 21 September 2020. We compiled a dataset of country-, sector- and lockdown- specific values, representing daily activity changes in private, public, and active passenger transport. In the aggregate, surface passenger transport emissions fell by 11.2% corresponding to 40.3 MtCO2 in Europe. This decline was predominantly due to the reduction of private passenger transport in five European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK). During the first lockdown in April 2020, CO2 emissions from surface passenger transport declined by 50% in Europe, resulting in a 7.1% reduction in total CO2 emissions. After April 2020, private passenger travel recovered rapidly, while public passenger flows remained low. Solely prompted by the private sector, a rebound in total emissions and surface passenger transport emissions of 1.5% and 10.7%, respectively, was estimated at the end of the study period. The resulting situation of increased private and decreased public passenger transport is in contradiction to major climate goals, and without reversing these trends, emission reductions, as stated in the European Green Deal are unlikely to be achieved. Our study provides an analysis based on a detailed and timely set of data of surface passenger transport and points to options to grasp the momentum for innovative changes in passenger mobility.
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Project description:International mobility facilitates the exchange of scientific, institutional and cultural knowledge. Yet whether globalization and advances in virtual communication technologies have altered the impact of researcher mobility is a relevant and open question that we address by analysing a broad international set of 26 170 physicists from 1980 to 2009, focusing on the 10-year period centred around each mobility event to assess the impact of mobility on research outcomes. We account for secular globalization trends by splitting the analysis into three periods, measuring for each period the effect of mobility on researchers' citation impact, research topic diversity, collaboration networks and geographical coordination. In order to identify causal effects we leverage statistical matching methods that pair mobile researchers with non-mobile researchers that are similar in research profile attributes prior the mobility event. We find that mobile researchers gain up to a 17% increase in citations relative to their non-mobile counterparts, which can be explained by the simultaneous increase in their diversity of co-authors, topics and geographical coordination in the period immediately following migration. Nevertheless, we also observe that researcher's completely curtail prior collaborations with their source country in 11% of the cross-border mobility events. As such, these individual-level perturbations fuel multiscale churning in scientific networks, e.g. rewiring the connectivity of individuals and ideas and affecting international integration. Together these results provide additional clarity on the complex relationship between human capital mobility and the dynamics of social capital investment, with implications for immigration and national innovation system policy.
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Project description:RationaleThe SARS-CoV2 pandemic led to drastic social restrictions globally. Early data suggest that women in science have been more adversely affected by these lockdowns than men, with relatively fewer scientific articles authored by women. However, these observations test broad populations with many potential causes of disparity. Australia presents a natural experimental condition where several states of similar demographics and disease impact had differing approaches in their social isolation strategies. The state of Victoria experienced 280 days of lockdowns from 2020 to 2021, whereas the comparable state of New South Wales experienced 107 days, most of these in 2021, and other states even fewer restrictions.Objective and methodsTo assess how the gender balance changed in Australian biomedical publishing with the lockdowns, we created a custom workflow to analyse PubMed data from more than 120,000 published articles submitted in 2019-2021 from Australian authors.ResultsBroadly, Australian women have been incredibly resilient to the challenges faced by the lockdowns. There was an increase in the number of published articles submitted in 2020 that was equally due to women as men, including from Victoria. On the other hand, articles specifically addressing COVID-19 were significantly less likely to be authored by women than those on other topics, a finding not likely due to particular gender imbalance in virology or viral epidemiology, since publications on HIV followed similar patterns to previous years. By 2021, this imbalance had reversed, with more COVID-19-related papers authored by women than men.ConclusionsThese data suggest women from Victoria were less able to rapidly transition to new research early in the pandemic but had accommodated to the new conditions by 2021. This work indicates we need strategies to support women in science as the pandemic continues and to continue to monitor the situation for its impact on vulnerable groups.
| S-EPMC9896855 | biostudies-literature