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Testicular cancer incidence predictions in Europe 2010-2035: A rising burden despite population ageing.

ABSTRACT: Testicular cancer is the most common cancer among young men of European ancestry, with about one-third of all cases occurring in Europe. With the historically increasing trends in some high-incidence populations reported to have stabilised in recent years, we aimed to assess recent trends and predict the future testicular cancer incidence burden across Europe. We extracted testicular cancer (ICD-10 C62) incidence data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes VII-XI and complemented this with data published by registries from 28 European countries. We predicted cancer incidence rates and the number of incident cases in Europe in the year 2035 using the NORDPRED age-period-cohort model. Testicular cancer incidence rates will increase in 21 out of 28 countries over the period 2010-2035, with trends attenuating in the high-incidence populations of Denmark, Norway, Switzerland and Austria. Although population ageing would be expected to reduce the number of cases, this demographic effect is outweighed by increasing risk, leading to an overall increase in the number of cases by 2035 in Europe, and by region (21, 13 and 32% in Northern, Western and Eastern Europe, respectively). Declines are however predicted in Italy and Spain, amounting to 12% less cases in 2035 in Southern Europe overall. In conclusion, the burden of testicular cancer incidence in Europe will continue to increase, particularly in historically lower-risk countries. The largest increase in the number of testicular cancer patients is predicted in Eastern Europe, where survival is lower, reinforcing the need to ensure the provision of effective treatment across Europe.

SUBMITTER: Znaor A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8612086 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background and aimsMaternal malnutrition is a major global public health problem that can lead to serious maternal diseases. This study aimed to analyze and predict the spatio-temporal trends in the burden of maternal disorders attributable to malnutrition, and to provide a basis for scientific improvement of maternal malnutrition and targeted prevention of maternal disorders.MethodsData on maternal disorders attributable to malnutrition, including number of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), population attributable fractions (PAFs), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), and age-standardized DALY rates (ASDRs) were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to describe their epidemiological characteristics by age, region, year, and type of disease. A log-linear regression model was used to calculate the annual percentage change (AAPC) of ASMR or ASDR to reflect their temporal trends. Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the number of deaths and mortality rates to 2035.ResultsGlobal number of deaths and DALYs for maternal disorders attributable to malnutrition declined by 42.35 and 41.61% from 1990 to 2019, with an AAPC of -3.09 (95% CI: -3.31, -2.88) and -2.98 (95% CI: -3.20, -2.77) for ASMR and ASDR, respectively. The burden was higher among younger pregnant women (20-29 years) in low and low-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, whereas it was higher among older pregnant women (30-39 years) in high SDI region. Both ASMR and ASDR showed a significant decreasing trend with increasing SDI. Maternal hemorrhage had the highest burden of all diseases. Global deaths are predicted to decline from 42,350 in 2019 to 38,461 in 2035, with the ASMR declining from 1.08 (95% UI: 0.38, 1.79) to 0.89 (95% UI: 0.47, 1.31).ConclusionMaternal malnutrition is improving globally, but in the context of the global food crisis, attention needs to be paid to malnutrition in low SDI regions, especially among young pregnant women, and corresponding measures need to be taken to effectively reduce the burden of disease.

Project description:BackgroundAnticipating the burden of intracerebral haemorrhage is crucial for proactive management and building resilience against future health challenges. Prior forecasts are based on population demography and to a lesser extent epidemiological trends. This study aims to utilise selected modifiable risk factors and socio-demographic indicators to forecast the incidence and mortality of intracerebral haemorrhage in Europe between 2019 and 2050.MethodsThree intracerebral haemorrhage risk factors identified in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study (GBD 2019)-high systolic blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body mass index-were utilised to predict the risk-attributable fractions between 2019 and 2050. Disease burden not attributable to these risk factors was then forecasted using time series models (autoregressive integrated moving average [ARIMA]), incorporating the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) as an external predictor. The optimal parameters of ARIMA models were selected for each age-sex-country group based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Different health scenarios were constructed by extending the past 85th and 15th percentiles of annualised rates of change in risk factors and SDI across all location-years, stratified by age and sex groups. A decomposition analysis was performed to assess the relative contributions of population size, age composition, and intracerebral haemorrhage risk on the projected changes.FindingsCompared with observed figures in 2019, our analysis predicts an increase in the burden of intracerebral haemorrhage in Europe in 2050, with a marginal rise of 0.6% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], -7.4% to 9.6%) in incident cases and an 8.9% (-2.8% to 23.6%) increase in mortality, reaching 141.2 (120.6-166.5) thousand and 144.2 (122.9-172.2) thousand respectively. These projections may fluctuate depending on trajectories of the risk factors and SDI; worsened trends could result in increases of 16.7% (8.7%-25.3%) in incidence and 31.2% (17.7%-48%) in mortality, while better trajectories may lead to a 10% (16.4%-2.3%) decrease in intracerebral haemorrhage cases with stabilised mortality. Individuals aged ≥80 years are expected to contribute significantly to the burden, comprising 62.7% of the cases in 2050, up from 40% in 2019, and 72.5% of deaths, up from 50.5%. Country-wide variations were noted in the projected changes, with decreases in the standardised rates across all nations but varying crude rates. The largest relative reductions in counts for both incidence and mortality are expected in Latvia, Bulgaria, and Hungary-ranging from -38.2% to -32.4% and -37.3% to -30.2% respectively. In contrast, the greatest increases for both measures were forecasted in Ireland (45.7% and 74.4%), Luxembourg (45% and 70.7%), and Cyprus (44.5% and 74.2%). The modelled increase in the burden of intracerebral haemorrhage could largely be attributed to population ageing.InterpretationThis study provides a comprehensive forecast of intracerebral haemorrhage in Europe until 2050, presenting different trajectories. The potential increase in the number of people experiencing and dying from intracerebral haemorrhage could have profound implications for both caregiving responsibilities and associated costs. However, forecasts were divergent between different scenarios and among EU countries, signalling the pivotal role of public health initiatives in steering the trajectories.FundingThe European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No. 754517. The National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) under its Programme Grants for Applied Research (NIHR202339).

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Testicular cancer incidence predictions in Europe 2010-2035: A rising burden despite population ageing.

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