Assessing the Effect of Climate Variables on the Incidence of Dengue Cases in the Metropolitan Region of Panama City.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Navarro Valencia V
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8619576 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Dengue is a re-emerging disease, currently considered the most important mosquito-borne arbovirus infection affecting humankind, taking into account both its morbidity and mortality. Brazil is considered an endemic country for dengue, such that more than 1,544,987 confirmed cases were notified in 2019, which means an incidence rate of 735 for every 100 thousand inhabitants. Climate is an important factor in the temporal and spatial distribution of vector-borne diseases, such as dengue. Thus, rainfall and temperature are considered macro-factors determinants for dengue, since they directly influence the population density of Aedes aegypti, which is subject to seasonal fluctuations, mainly due to these variables. This study examined the incidence of dengue fever related to the climate influence by using temperature and rainfall variables data obtained from remote sensing via artificial satellites in the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The mathematical model that best fits the data is based on an auto-regressive moving average with exogenous inputs (ARMAX). It reproduced the values of incidence rates in the study period and managed to predict with good precision in a one-year horizon. The approach described in present work may be replicated in cities around the world by the public health managers, to build auxiliary operational tools for control and prevention tasks of dengue, as well of other arbovirus diseases.
| S-EPMC8136695 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundClimate change is an important driver of the increased spread of dengue from tropical and subtropical regions to temperate areas around the world. Climate variables such as temperature and precipitation influence the dengue vector's biology, physiology, abundance, and life cycle. Thus, an analysis is needed of changes in climate change and their possible relationships with dengue incidence and the growing occurrence of epidemics recorded in recent decades.ObjectivesThis study aimed to assess the increasing incidence of dengue driven by climate change at the southern limits of dengue virus transmission in South America.MethodsWe analyzed the evolution of climatological, epidemiological, and biological variables by comparing a period of time without the presence of dengue cases (1976-1997) to a more recent period of time in which dengue cases and important outbreaks occurred (1998-2020). In our analysis, we consider climate variables associated with temperature and precipitation, epidemiological variables such as the number of reported dengue cases and incidence of dengue, and biological variables such as the optimal temperature ranges for transmission of dengue vector.ResultsThe presence of dengue cases and epidemic outbreaks are observed to be consistent with positive trends in temperature and anomalies from long-term means. Dengue cases do not seem to be associated with precipitation trends and anomalies. The number of days with optimal temperatures for dengue transmission increased from the period without dengue cases to the period with occurrences of dengue cases. The number of months with optimal transmission temperatures also increased between periods but to a lesser extent.ConclusionsThe higher incidence of dengue virus and its expansion to different regions of Argentina seem to be associated with temperature increases in the country during the past two decades. The active surveillance of both the vector and associated arboviruses, together with continued meteorological data collection, will facilitate the assessment and prediction of future epidemics that use trends in the accelerated changes in climate. Such surveillance should go hand in hand with efforts to improve the understanding of the mechanisms driving the geographic expansion of dengue and other arboviruses beyond the current limits. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11616.
| S-EPMC10208431 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The 3-5year epidemic cycle of dengue fever in Thailand makes it a major re-emerging public health problem resulting in being a burden in endemic areas. Although the Thai Ministry of Public Health adopted the WHO dengue control strategy, all dengue virus serotypes continue to circulate. Health officers and village health volunteers implement some intervention options but there is a need to ascertain most appropriate (or a combination of) interventions regarding the environment and contextual factors that may undermine the effectiveness of such interventions. This study aims to understand the dengue-climate relationship patterns at the district level in the southern region of Thailand from 2002 to 2018 by examining the statistical association between dengue incidence rate and eight environmental patterns, testing the hypothesis of equal incidence of these. Data on environmental variables and dengue reported cases in Nakhon Si Thammarat province situated in the south of Thailand from 2002 to 2018 were analysed to (1) detect the environmental factors that affect the risk of dengue infectious disease; to (2) determine if disease risk is increasing or decreasing over time; and to (3) identify the high-risk district areas for dengue cases that need to be targeted for interventions. To identify the predictors that have a high and significant impact on reported dengue infection, three steps of analysis were used. First, we used Partial Least Squares (PLS) Regression and Poisson Regression, a variant of the Generalized Linear Model (GLM). Negative co-efficient in correspondence with the PLS components suggests that sea-level pressure, wind speed, and pan evaporation are associated with dengue occurrence rate, while other variables were positively associated. Using the Akaike information criterion in the stepwise GLM, the filtered predictors were temperature, precipitation, cloudiness, and sea level pressure with the standardized coefficients showing that the most influential variable is cloud cover (three times more than temperature and precipitation). Also, dengue occurrence showed a constant negative response to the average increase in sea-level pressure values. In southern Thailand, the predictors that have been locally determined to drive dengue occurrence are temperature, rainfall, cloud cover, and sea-level pressure. These explanatory variables should have important future implications for epidemiological studies of mosquito-borne diseases, particularly at the district level. Predictive indicators guide effective and dynamic risk assessments, targeting pre-emptive interventions.
| S-EPMC10022128 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Dengue transmission poses significant challenges for public health authorities worldwide due to its susceptibility to various factors, including environmental and climate variability, affecting its incidence and geographic spread. This study focuses on Costa Rica, a country characterized by diverse microclimates nearby, where dengue has been endemic since its introduction in 1993. Using wavelet coherence and clustering analysis, we performed a time-series analysis to uncover the intricate connections between climate, local environmental factors, and dengue occurrences. The findings indicate that multiannual dengue frequency (3 yr) is correlated with the Oceanic Niño Index and the Tropical North Atlantic Index. This association is particularly prominent in cantons located along the North and South Pacific Coast, as well as in the Central cantons of the country. Furthermore, the time series of these climate indices exhibit a leading phase of approximately nine months ahead of dengue cases. Additionally, the clustering analysis uncovers non-contiguous groups of cantons that exhibit similar correlation patterns, irrespective of their proximity or adjacency. This highlights the significance of climate factors in influencing dengue dynamics across diverse regions, regardless of spatial closeness or distance between them. On the other hand, the annual dengue frequency was correlated with local environmental indices. A persistent correlation between dengue cases and local environmental variables is observed over time in the North Pacific and the Central Region of the country's Northwest, with environmental factors leading by less than three months. These findings contribute to understanding dengue transmission's spatial and temporal dynamics in Costa Rica, highlighting the importance of climate and local environmental factors in dengue surveillance and control efforts.
| S-EPMC10586647 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn Bangladesh, particularly in Dhaka city, dengue fever is a major factor in serious sickness and hospitalization. The weather influences the temporal and geographical spread of the vector-borne disease dengue in Dhaka. As a result, rainfall and ambient temperature are considered macro factors influencing dengue since they have a direct impact on Aedes aegypti population density, which changes seasonally dependent on these critical variables. This study aimed to clarify the relationship between climatic variables and the incidence of dengue disease.MethodsA total of 2253 dengue and climate data were used for this study. Maximum and minimum temperature (°C), humidity (grams of water vapor per kilogram of air g.kg-1), rainfall (mm), sunshine hour (in (average) hours per day), and wind speed (knots (kt)) in Dhaka were considered as the independent variables for this study which trigger the dengue incidence in Dhaka city, Bangladesh. Missing values were imputed using multiple imputation techniques. Descriptive and correlation analyses were performed for each variable and stationary tests were observed using Dicky Fuller test. However, initially, the Poisson model, zero-inflated regression model, and negative binomial model were fitted for this problem. Finally, the negative binomial model is considered the final model for this study based on minimum AIC values.ResultsThe mean of maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, sunshine hour, and rainfall showed some fluctuations over the years. However, a mean number of dengue cases reported a higher incidence in recent years. Maximum and minimum temperature, humidity, and wind speed were positively correlated with dengue cases. However, rainfall and sunshine hours were negatively associated with dengue cases. The findings showed that factors such as maximum temperature, minimum temperature, humidity, and windspeed are crucial in the transmission cycles of dengue disease. On the other hand, dengue cases decreased with higher levels of rainfall.ConclusionThe findings of this study will be helpful for policymakers to develop a climate-based warning system in Bangladesh.
| S-EPMC10192530 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Evolutionary analyses of viral sequences can provide insights into transmission dynamics, which in turn can optimize prevention interventions. Here, we characterized the dynamics of HIV transmission within the Mexico City metropolitan area. HIV pol sequences from persons recently diagnosed at the largest HIV clinic in Mexico City (between 2016 and 2021) were annotated with demographic/geographic metadata. A multistep phylogenetic approach was applied to identify putative transmission clades. A data set of publicly available sequences was used to assess international introductions. Clades were analyzed with a discrete phylogeographic model to evaluate the timing and intensity of HIV introductions and transmission dynamics among municipalities in the region. A total of 6,802 sequences across 96 municipalities (5,192 from Mexico City and 1,610 from the neighboring State of Mexico) were included (93.6% cisgender men, 5.0% cisgender women, and 1.3% transgender women); 3,971 of these sequences formed 1,206 clusters, involving 78 municipalities, including 89 clusters of ≥10 sequences. Discrete phylogeographic analysis revealed (i) 1,032 viral introductions into the region, over one-half of which were from the United States, and (ii) 354 migration events between municipalities with high support (adjusted Bayes factor of ≥3). The most frequent viral migrations occurred between northern municipalities within Mexico City, i.e., Cuauhtémoc to Iztapalapa (5.2% of events), Iztapalapa to Gustavo A. Madero (5.4%), and Gustavo A. Madero to Cuauhtémoc (6.5%). Our analysis illustrates the complexity of HIV transmission within the Mexico City metropolitan area but also identifies a spatially active transmission area involving a few municipalities in the north of the city, where targeted interventions could have a more pronounced effect on the entire regional epidemic. IMPORTANCE Phylogeographic investigation of the Mexico City HIV epidemic illustrates the complexity of HIV transmission in the region. An active transmission area involving a few municipalities in the north of the city, with transmission links throughout the region, is identified and could be a location where targeted interventions could have a more pronounced effect on the entire regional epidemic, compared with those dispersed in other manners.
| S-EPMC9327710 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The metropolitan region of Tainan City in southern Taiwan experienced a dengue outbreak in 2015. This manuscript describes basic epidemiological features of this outbreak and uses spatial and temporal analysis tools to understand the spread of dengue during the outbreak. The analysis found that, independently of gender, dengue incidence rate increased with age, and proportionally affected more males below the age of 40 years but females above the age of 40 years. A spatial scan statistic was applied to detect clusters of disease transmission. The scan statistic found that dengue spread in a north-south diffusion direction, which is across the North, West-Central and South districts of Tainan City. Spatial regression models were used to quantify factors associated with transmission. This analysis indicated that neighborhoods with high proportions of residential area (or low wetland cover) were associated with dengue transmission. However, these association patterns were non-linear. The findings presented here can help Taiwanese public health agencies to understand the fundamental epidemiological characteristics and diffusion patterns of the 2015 dengue outbreak in Tainan City. This type of information is fundamental for policy making to prevent future uncontrolled dengue outbreaks, given that results from this study suggest that control interventions should be emphasized in the North and West-Central districts of Tainan city, in areas with a moderate percentage of residential land cover.
| S-EPMC5876941 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The clinical and pathologic characterisation of two fatal cases of tick-borne rickettsiosis in rural (El Valle) and urban (City of Panama) Panama are described. Clinical and autopsy findings were non-specific, but the molecular analysis was used to identify Rickettsia rickettsii in both cases. No ticks were collected in El Valle, while in the urban case, R. rickettsii was detected in Rhipicephalus sanguineus s.l., representing the first molecular finding in this tick in Panama and Central America.
| S-EPMC9184943 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We investigated the association between climate variables and pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) incidence in Brunei-Muara district, Brunei Darussalam. Weekly PTB case counts and climate variables from January 2001 to December 2018 were analysed using distributed lag non-linear model framework. After adjusting for long-term trend and seasonality, we observed positive but delayed relationship between PTB incidence and minimum temperature, with significant adjusted relative risk (adj.RR) at 25.1 °C (95th percentile) when compared to the median, from lag 30 onwards (adj.RR = 1.17 [95% Confidence Interval (95% CI): 1.01, 1.36]), suggesting effect of minimum temperature on PTB incidence after 30 weeks. Similar results were observed from a sub-analysis on smear-positive PTB case counts from lag 29 onwards (adj.RR = 1.21 [95% CI: 1.01, 1.45]), along with positive and delayed association with total rainfall at 160.7 mm (95th percentile) when compared to the median, from lag 42 onwards (adj.RR = 1.23 [95% CI: 1.01, 1.49]). Our findings reveal evidence of delayed effects of climate on PTB incidence in Brunei, but with varying degrees of magnitude, direction and timing. Though explainable by environmental and social factors, further studies on the relative contribution of recent (through primary human-to-human transmission) and remote (through reactivation of latent TB) TB infection in equatorial settings is warranted.
| S-EPMC9130123 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHo Chi Minh City and Bangkok are highly dengue endemic. The extent to which disease patterns are attributable to local versus regional dynamics remains unclear. To address this gap we compared key transmission parameters across the locations.Methods and principal findingsWe used 2003-2009 age-stratified case data to inform catalytic transmission models. Further, we compared the spatial clustering of serotypes within each city. We found that annual case numbers were highly consistent across the two cities (correlation of 0.77, 95% CI: 0.74-0.79) as was the annual force of infection (correlation of 0.57, 95% CI: 0.46-0.68). Serotypes were less similar with serotype-specific correlations ranging from 0.65 for DENV1 to -0.14 for DENV4. Significant spatial clustering of serotypes was observed in HCMC at distances <500m, similar to previous observations from Bangkok.DiscussionsDengue dynamics are comparable across these two hubs. Low correlation in serotype distribution suggests that similar built environments, vector populations and climate, rather than viral flow drives these observations.
| S-EPMC5199033 | biostudies-literature