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Estimated number of deaths directly averted in people 60 years and older as a result of COVID-19 vaccination in the WHO European Region, December 2020 to November 2021.

ABSTRACT: Since December 2019, over 1.5 million SARS-CoV-2-related fatalities have been recorded in the World Health Organization European Region - 90.2% in people ≥ 60 years. We calculated lives saved in this age group by COVID-19 vaccination in 33 countries from December 2020 to November 2021, using weekly reported deaths and vaccination coverage. We estimated that vaccination averted 469,186 deaths (51% of 911,302 expected deaths; sensitivity range: 129,851-733,744; 23-62%). Impact by country ranged 6-93%, largest when implementation was early.

SUBMITTER: Mesle MM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8619871 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimated number of deaths directly averted in people 60 years and older as a result of COVID-19 vaccination in the WHO European Region, December 2020 to November 2021.

Meslé Margaux Mi MM Brown Jeremy J Mook Piers P Hagan José J Pastore Roberta R Bundle Nick N Spiteri Gianfranco G Ravasi Giovanni G Nicolay Nathalie N Andrews Nick N Dykhanovska Tetiana T Mossong Joël J Sadkowska-Todys Małgorzata M Nikiforova Raina R Riccardo Flavia F Meijerink Hinta H Mazagatos Clara C Kyncl Jan J McMenamin Jim J Melillo Tanya T Kaoustou Stella S Lévy-Bruhl Daniel D Haarhuis Freek F Rich Rivka R Kall Meaghan M Nitzan Dorit D Smallwood Catherine C Pebody Richard G RG

Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin 20211101 47

Since December 2019, over 1.5 million SARS-CoV-2-related fatalities have been recorded in the World Health Organization European Region - 90.2% in people ≥ 60 years. We calculated lives saved in this age group by COVID-19 vaccination in 33 countries from December 2020 to November 2021, using weekly reported deaths and vaccination coverage. We estimated that vaccination averted 469,186 deaths (51% of 911,302 expected deaths; sensitivity range: 129,851-733,744; 23-62%). Impact by country ranged 6- ...[more]

PMID: 34823641

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Project description:ImportanceThe number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-associated hospitalizations and deaths prevented among vaccinated persons, independent of the effect of reduced transmission, is a key measure of vaccine impact.ObjectiveTo estimate the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-associated hospitalizations and deaths prevented among vaccinated adults in the US.Design, setting, and participantsIn this modeling study, a multiplier model was used to extrapolate the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-associated deaths from data on the number of COVID-19-associated hospitalizations stratified by state, month, and age group (18-49, 50-64, and ≥65 years) in the US from December 1, 2020, to September 30, 2021. These estimates were combined with data on vaccine coverage and effectiveness to estimate the risks of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. Risks were applied to the US population 18 years or older to estimate the expected burden in that population without vaccination. The estimated burden in the US population 18 years or older given observed levels of vaccination was subtracted from the expected burden in the US population 18 years or older without vaccination (ie, counterfactual) to estimate the impact of vaccination among vaccinated persons.ExposuresCompletion of the COVID-19 vaccination course, defined as 2 doses of messenger RNA (BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273) vaccines or 1 dose of JNJ-78436735 vaccine.Main outcomes and measuresMonthly numbers and percentages of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-associated hospitalizations and deaths prevented were estimated among those who have been vaccinated in the US.ResultsCOVID-19 vaccination was estimated to prevent approximately 27 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 22 million to 34 million) infections, 1.6 million (95% UI, 1.4 million to 1.8 million) hospitalizations, and 235 000 (95% UI, 175 000-305 000) deaths in the US from December 1, 2020, to September 30, 2021, among vaccinated adults 18 years or older. From September 1 to September 30, 2021, vaccination was estimated to prevent 52% (95% UI, 45%-62%) of expected infections, 56% (95% UI, 52%-62%) of expected hospitalizations, and 58% (95% UI, 53%-63%) of expected deaths in adults 18 years or older.Conclusions and relevanceThese findings indicate that the US COVID-19 vaccination program prevented a substantial burden of morbidity and mortality through direct protection of vaccinated individuals.

Project description:ImportanceLimited data have been presented to examine breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospitalizations, and mortality in vaccinated patients with cancer in the US.ObjectivesTo examine the risk of breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalizations, and mortality in vaccinated patients with cancer between December 2020 and November 2021.Design, setting, and participantsRetrospective cohort study of electronic health records (EHRs) of vaccinated patients from a multicenter and nationwide database in the US during the period of December 2020 through November 2021. The study population comprised patients who had documented evidence of vaccination (2 doses of Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech or single dose of Janssen/Johnson & Johnson vaccines) in their EHRs from December 2020 to November 2021 and had no SARS-CoV-2 infection prior to vaccination.ExposuresThe 12 most common cancers combined and separately; recent vs no recent encounter for cancer; and breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection.Main outcomes and measuresTime trends of incidence proportions of breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections from December 2020 to November 2021 in vaccinated patients with all cancer; cumulative risks of breakthrough infections in vaccinated patients for all cancer and 12 common cancer types; hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs of breakthrough infections between propensity score-matched patients with vs without cancer and between propensity score-matched patients with cancer who had a recent medical encounter for cancer vs those who did not; overall risks, HRs, and 95% CIs of hospitalizations and mortality in patients with cancer who had breakthrough infections vs those who did not.ResultsAmong 45 253 vaccinated patients with cancer (mean [SD] age, 68.7 [12.4] years), 53.5% were female, 3.8% were Asian individuals, 15.4% were Black individuals, 4.9% were Hispanic individuals, and 74.1% were White individuals. Breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections in patients with cancer increased from December 2020 to November 2021 and reached 52.1 new cases per 1000 persons in November 2021. The cumulative risk of breakthrough infections in patients with all cancer was 13.6%, with highest risk for pancreatic (24.7%), liver (22.8%), lung (20.4%), and colorectal (17.5%) cancers, and lowest risk for thyroid (10.3%), endometrial (11.9%), and breast (11.9%) cancers, vs 4.9% in the noncancer population (P < .001). Patients with cancer had significantly increased risk for breakthrough infections vs patients without cancer (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.19-1.29), with greatest risk for liver (HR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.38-2.29), lung (HR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.50-1.99), pancreatic (HR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.24-2.18), and colorectal (HR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.32-1.77) cancers and lowest risk for thyroid (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.88-1.30) and skin (HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.99-1.38) cancers. Patients who had medical encounters for cancer within the past year had higher risk for breakthrough infections than those who did not (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.18-1.31). Among patients with cancer, the overall risk for hospitalizations and mortality was 31.6% and 3.9%, respectively, in patients with breakthrough infections, vs 6.7% and 1.3% in those without breakthrough infections (HR for hospitalization: 13.48; 95% CI, 11.42-15.91; HR for mortality: 6.76; 95% CI, 4.97-9.20).Conclusions and relevanceThis cohort study showed significantly increased risks for breakthrough infection in vaccinated patients with cancer, especially those undergoing active cancer care, with marked heterogeneity among specific cancer types. Breakthrough infections in patients with cancer were associated with significant and substantial risks for hospitalizations and mortality.

Project description:BackgroundCoronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths are rare in children and young people (CYP). The high rates of asymptomatic and mild infections complicate assessment of cause of death in CYP. We assessed the cause of death in all CYP with a positive Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) test since the start of the pandemic in England.Methods and findingsCYP aged <20 years who died within 100 days of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between 01 March 2020 and 31 December 2021 in England were followed up in detail, using national databases, surveillance questionnaires, post-mortem reports, and clinician interviews. There were 185 deaths during the 22-month follow-up and 81 (43.8%) were due to COVID-19. Compared to non-COVID-19 deaths in CYP with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, death due to COVID-19 was independently associated with older age (aOR 1.06 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01 to 1.11, p = 0.02) and underlying comorbidities (aOR 2.52 95% CI 1.27 to 5.01, p = 0.008), after adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity group, and underlying conditions, with a shorter interval between SARS-CoV-2 testing and death. Half the COVID-19 deaths (41/81, 50.6%) occurred within 7 days of confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 infection and 91% (74/81) within 30 days. Of the COVID-19 deaths, 61 (75.3%) had an underlying condition, especially severe neurodisability (n = 27) and immunocompromising conditions (n = 12). Over the 22-month surveillance period, SARS-CoV-2 was responsible for 1.2% (81/6,790) of all deaths in CYP aged <20 years, with an infection fatality rate of 0.70/100,000 SARS-CoV-2 infections in this age group estimated through real-time, nowcasting modelling, and a mortality rate of 0.61/100,000. Limitations include possible under-ascertainment of deaths in CYP who were not tested for SARS-CoV-2 and lack of direct access to clinical data for hospitalised CYP.ConclusionsCOVID-19 deaths remain extremely rare in CYP, with most fatalities occurring within 30 days of infection and in children with specific underlying conditions.

Dataset Information

Estimated number of deaths directly averted in people 60 years and older as a result of COVID-19 vaccination in the WHO European Region, December 2020 to November 2021.

Publications

Estimated number of deaths directly averted in people 60 years and older as a result of COVID-19 vaccination in the WHO European Region, December 2020 to November 2021.

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