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Estimating averted COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, intensive care unit admissions and deaths by COVID-19 vaccination, Italy, January-September 2021.

ABSTRACT: We assessed the impact of COVID-19 vaccination in Italy, by estimating numbers of averted COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths between January and September 2021, by age group and geographical macro areas. Timing and speed of vaccination programme implementation varied slightly between geographical areas, particularly for older adults. We estimated that 445,193 (17% of expected; range: 331,059-616,054) cases, 79,152 (32%; range: 53,209-148,756) hospitalisations, 9,839 ICU admissions (29%; range: 6,434-16,276) and 22,067 (38%; range: 13,571-48,026) deaths were prevented by vaccination.

SUBMITTER: Sacco C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8619872 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundContact tracing is one of the main public health tools in the control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A centralized contact tracing system was developed in Belgium in 2020. We aim to evaluate the performance and describe the results, between January 01, 2021, and September 30, 2021. The characteristics of COVID-19 cases and the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on testing and tracing are also described.MethodsWe combined laboratory diagnostic test data (molecular and antigen test), vaccination data, and contact tracing data. A descriptive analysis was done to evaluate the performance of contact tracing and describe insights into the epidemiology of COVID-19 by contact tracing.ResultsBetween January and September 2021, 555.181 COVID-19 cases were reported to the central contact center and 91% were contacted. The average delay between symptom onset and contact tracing initiation was around 5 days, of which 4 days corresponded to pre-testing delay. High-Risk Contacts (HRC) were reported by 49% of the contacted index cases. The mean number of reported HRC was 2.7. In total, 666.869 HRC were reported of which 91% were successfully contacted and 89% of these were tested at least once following the interview. The estimated average secondary attack rate (SAR) among the contacts of the COVID-19 cases who reported at least one contact, was 27% and was significantly higher among household HRC. The proportion of COVID-19 cases who were previously identified as HRC within the central system was 24%.ConclusionsThe contact-tracing system contacted more than 90% of the reported COVID-19 cases and their HRC. This proportion remained stable between January 1 2021 and September 30 2021 despite an increase in cases in March-April 2021. We report high SAR, indicating that through contact tracing a large number of infections were prospectively detected. The system can be further improved by (1) reducing the delay between onset of illness and medical consultation (2) having more exhaustive reporting of HRC by the COVID-19 case.

Project description:BackgroundIn Japan, the latest estimates of excess all-cause deaths through January to July 2020 showed that the overall (direct and indirect) mortality burden from the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan was relatively low compared to Europe and the United States. However, consistency between the reported number of COVID-19 deaths and excess all-cause deaths was limited across prefectures, suggesting the necessity of distinguishing the direct and indirect consequences of COVID-19 by cause-specific analysis. To examine whether deaths from road injuries decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan, consistent with a possible reduction of road transport activity connected to Japan's state of emergency declaration, we estimated the exiguous deaths from road injuries in each week from January to September 2020 by 47 prefectures.MethodsTo estimate the expected weekly number of deaths from road injuries, a quasi-Poisson regression was applied to daily traffic fatalities data obtained from Traffic Accident Research and Data Analysis, Japan. We set two thresholds, point estimate and lower bound of the two-sided 95% prediction interval, for exiguous deaths, and report the range of differences between the observed number of deaths and each of these thresholds as exiguous deaths.ResultsSince January 2020, in a few weeks the observed deaths from road injuries fell below the 95% lower bound, such as April 6-12 (exiguous deaths 5-21, percent deficit 2.82-38.14), May 4-10 (8-23, 21.05-43.01), July 20-26 (12-29, 30.77-51.53), and August 3-9 (3-20, 7.32-34.41). However, those less than the 95% lower bound were also observed in weeks in the previous years.ConclusionsThe number of road traffic fatalities during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan has decreased slightly, but not significantly, in several weeks compared with the average year. This suggests that the relatively small changes in excess all-cause mortality observed in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic could not be explained simply by an offsetting reduction in traffic deaths. Considering a variety of other indirect effects, evaluating an independent, unbiased measure of COVID-19-related mortality burden could provide insight into the design of future broad-based infectious disease counter-measures and offer lessons to other countries.

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Estimating averted COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, intensive care unit admissions and deaths by COVID-19 vaccination, Italy, January-September 2021.

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