Survival rates of adult and juvenile gyrfalcons in Iceland: estimates and drivers.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Barraquand F
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8621780 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundAccurate estimates of cancer survival are important for assessing optimal patient care and prognosis. Evaluation of these estimates via relative survival (a ratio of observed and expected survival rates) requires a population life table that is matched to the cancer population by age, sex, race and/or ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and ideally risk factors for the cancer under examination. Because life tables for all subgroups in a study may be unavailable, we investigated whether cause-specific survival could be used as an alternative for relative survival.MethodsWe used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program for 2,330,905 cancer patients from January 1, 1992, through December 31, 2004. We defined cancer-specific deaths according to the following variables: cause of death, only one tumor or the first of multiple tumors, site of the original cancer diagnosis, and comorbidities. Estimates of relative survival and cause-specific survival that were derived by use of an actuarial method were compared.ResultsAmong breast cancer patients who were white, black, or of Asian or Pacific Islander descent and who were older than 65 years, estimates of 5-year relative survival (107.5%, 106.6%, and 103.0%, respectively) were higher than estimates of 5-year cause-specific survival (98.6%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 98.4% to 98.8%; 97.4%, 95% CI = 96.2% to 98.2%; and 99.2%, 95% CI = 98.4%, 99.6%, respectively). Relative survival methods likely underestimated rates for cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx (eg, for white cancer patients aged ?65 years, relative survival = 54.2%, 95% CI = 53.1% to 55.3%, and cause-specific survival = 60.1%, 95% CI = 59.1% to 60.9%) and the lung and bronchus (eg, for black cancer patients aged ?65 years, relative survival = 10.5%, 95% CI = 9.9% to 11.2%, and cause-specific survival = 11.9%, 95% CI = 11.2 % to 12.6%), largely because of mismatches between the population with these diseases and the population used to derive the life table. Socioeconomic differences between groups with low and high status in relative survival estimates appeared to be inflated (eg, corpus and uterus socioeconomic status gradient was 13.3% by relative survival methods and 8.8% by cause-specific survival methods).ConclusionAlthough accuracy of the cause of death on a death certificate can be problematic for cause-specific survival estimates, cause-specific survival methods may be an alternative to relative survival methods when suitable life tables are not available.
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Project description:Many marine fishes have life history strategies that involve ontogenetic changes in the use of coastal habitats. Such ontogenetic shifts may place these species at particular risk from climate change, because the successive environments they inhabit can differ in the type, frequency and severity of changes related to global warming. We used a dendrochronology approach to examine the physical and biological drivers of growth of adult and juvenile mangrove jack (Lutjanus argentimaculatus) from tropical north-western Australia. Juveniles of this species inhabit estuarine environments and adults reside on coastal reefs. The Niño-4 index, a measure of the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) had the highest correlation with adult growth chronologies, with La Niña years (characterised by warmer temperatures and lower salinities) having positive impacts on growth. Atmospheric and oceanographic phenomena operating at ocean-basin scales seem to be important correlates of the processes driving growth in local coastal habitats. Conversely, terrestrial factors influencing precipitation and river runoff were positively correlated with the growth of juveniles in estuaries. Our results show that the impacts of climate change on these two life history stages are likely to be different, with implications for resilience and management of populations.
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Project description:BackgroundThe trade in manta ray gill plates has considerably increased over the last two decades. The resulting increases in ray mortality, in addition to mortality caused by by-catch, has caused many ray populations to decrease in size. The aim of this study was to ascertain how yearling and juvenile growth and survival, and adult survival and reproduction affect reef manta ray (Manta alfredi) population change, to increase our understanding of manta ray demography and thereby improve conservation research and measures for these fish.MethodsWe developed a population projection model for reef manta rays, and used published life history data on yearling and juvenile growth and adult reproduction to parameterise the model. Because little is known about reef manta ray yearling and juvenile survival, we conducted our analyses using a range of plausible survival rate values for yearlings, juveniles and adults.ResultsThe model accurately captured observed variation in population growth rate, lifetime reproductive success and cohort generation time in different reef manta ray populations. Our demographic analyses revealed a range of population consequences in response to variation in demographic rates. For example, an increase in yearling or adult survival rates always elicited greater responses in population growth rate, lifetime reproductive success and cohort generation time than the same increase in juvenile survival rate. The population growth rate increased linearly, but lifetime reproductive success and cohort generation time increased at an accelerating rate with increasing yearling or adult survival rates. Hence, even a small increase in survival rate could increase lifetime reproductive success by one pup, and cohort generation time by several years. Elasticity analyses revealed that, depending on survival rate values of all life stages, the population growth rate is either most sensitive to changes in the rate with which juveniles survive but stay juveniles (i.e., do not mature into adults) or to changes in adult survival rate. However, when assessing these results against estimates on population growth and adult survival rates for populations off the coasts of Mozambique and Japan, we found that the population growth rate is predicted to be always most sensitive to changes in the adult survival rate.DiscussionIt is important to gain an in-depth understanding of reef manta ray life histories, particularly of yearling and adult survival rates, as these can influence reef manta ray population dynamics in a variety of ways. For declining populations in particular, it is crucial to know which life stage should be targeted for their conservation. For one such declining population off the coast of Mozambique, adult annual survival rate has the greatest effect on population growth, and by increasing adult survival by protecting adult aggregation sites, this population's decline could be halted or even reversed.
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Project description:The relationship between genetic diversity and fitness, a major issue in evolutionary and conservation biology, is expected to be stronger in traits affected by many loci and those directly influencing fitness. Here we explore the influence of heterozygosity measured at 15 neutral markers on individual survival, one of the most important parameters determining individual fitness. We followed individual survival up to recruitment and during subsequent adult life of 863 fledgling pied flycatchers born in two consecutive breeding seasons. Mark-recapture analyses showed that individual heterozygosity did not influence juvenile or adult survival. In contrast, the genetic relatedness of parents was negatively associated with the offspring's survival during the adult life, but this effect was not apparent in the juvenile (from fledgling to recruitment) stage. Stochastic factors experienced during the first year of life in this long-distance migratory species may have swamped a relationship between heterozygosity and survival up to recruitment.
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Project description:Together with the avoidance of any negative impact of inbreeding, preservation of genetic variability for life-history traits that could undergo future selective pressure is a major issue in endangered species management programmes. However, most of these programmes ignore that, apart from the direct action of genes on such traits, parents, as contributors of offspring environment, can influence offspring performance through indirect parental effects (when parental genotype and phenotype exerts environmental influences on offspring phenotype independently of additive genetic effects). Using quantitative genetic models, we estimated the additive genetic variance for juvenile survival in a population of the endangered Cuvier's gazelle kept in captivity since 1975. The dataset analyzed included performance recording for 700 calves and a total pedigree of 740 individuals. Results indicated that in this population juvenile survival harbors significant additive genetic variance. The estimates of heritability obtained were in general moderate (0.115-0.457) and not affected by the inclusion of inbreeding in the models. Maternal genetic contribution to juvenile survival seems to be of major importance in this gazelle's population as well. Indirect genetic and indirect environmental effects assigned to mothers (i.e., maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects) roughly explain a quarter of the total variance estimated for the trait analyzed. These findings have major evolutionary consequences for the species as show that offspring phenotypes can evolve strictly through changes in the environment provided by mothers. They are also relevant for the captive breeding programme of the species. To take into account, the contribution that mothers have on offspring phenotype through indirect genetic effects when designing pairing strategies might serve to identify those females with better ability to recruit, and, additionally, to predict reliable responses to selection in the captive population.
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Project description:The adult sex ratio (ASR) is a crucial component of the ecological and evolutionary forces shaping the dynamics of a population. Although in many declining populations ASRs have been reported to be skewed, empirical studies exploring the demographic factors shaping ASRs are still rare. In this study of the socially monogamous and sexually dimorphic Black-tailed Godwit (Limosa limosa limosa), we aim to evaluate the sex ratio of chicks at hatch and the subsequent sex-specific survival differences occurring over 3 subsequent life stages. We found that, at hatch, the sex ratio did not deviate from parity. However, the survival of pre-fledged females was 15-30% lower than that of males and the sex bias in survival was higher in low-quality habitat. Additionally, survival of adult females was almost 5% lower than that of adult males. Because survival rates of males and females did not differ during other life-history stages, the ASR in the population was biased toward males. Because females are larger than males, food limitations during development or sex-specific differences in the duration of development may explain the lower survival of female chicks. Differences among adults are less obvious and suggest previously unknown sex-related selection pressures. Irrespective of the underlying causes, by reducing the available number of females in this socially monogamous species, a male-biased ASR is likely to contribute to the ongoing decline of the Dutch godwit population.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions are a major source of morbidity and disability. There is a lack of global comparable data on the burden of MSK conditions in children and young people. Our aim was to estimate the global prevalence of three MSK conditions - Talipes Equinovarus (Clubfoot), Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis (JIA) and Juvenile Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (JSLE). METHODS:Using reported prevalence rates, age-stratified population data within the World Bank Data Bank in 2017 and United Nations country classification, we estimated the prevalence of these MSK conditions in <?5?year olds (clubfoot) and?<?16?year olds (JIA and JSLE) across the world. RESULTS:We estimated that in 2017, there were?~?675,061?<?5?year olds with clubfoot among 675,100,000?<?5?year olds, ~?2,069,246?<?16?year olds with JIA and?~?206,931?<?16?year olds with JSLE per 2,069,000,000?<?16?year olds, totalling ~?2,951,238 with one of these conditions. Disease prevalence was greatest in Asia (South Asia), followed by Africa, Americas, Europe and Oceania. CONCLUSIONS:An estimated 3 million children and young people globally are currently living with either clubfoot, JIA or JSLE; many in Asia and Africa. Further work is needed urgently to engage with global stakeholders to work together to improve access to effective care for the many who are affected and reduce the otherwise adverse lifelong impact on their health, quality of life and the impact on society.
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Project description:Fisheries management is most effective when based on scientific estimates of sustainable fishing rates. While some simple approaches allow estimation of harvest limits, more data-intensive stock assessments are generally required to evaluate the stock's biomass and fishing rates relative to sustainable levels. Here we evaluate how stock characteristics relate to the rate of new assessments in the United States. Using a statistical model based on time-to-event analysis and 569 coastal marine fish and invertebrate stocks landed in commercial fisheries, we quantify the impact of region, habitat, life-history, and economic factors on the annual probability of being assessed. Although the majority of landings come from assessed stocks in all regions, less than half of the regionally-landed species currently have been assessed. As expected, our time-to-event model identified landed tonnage and ex-vessel price as the dominant factors determining increased rates of new assessments. However, we also found that after controlling for landings and price, there has been a consistent bias towards assessing larger-bodied species. A number of vulnerable groups such as rockfishes (Scorpaeniformes) and groundsharks (Carcharhiniformes) have a relatively high annual probability of being assessed after controlling for their relatively small tonnage and low price. Due to relatively low landed tonnage and price of species that are currently unassessed, our model suggests that the number of assessed stocks will increase more slowly in future decades.
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