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Geographic Partitioning of Dengue Virus Transmission Risk in Florida.

ABSTRACT: Dengue viruses (DENVs) cause the greatest public health burden globally among the arthropod-borne viruses. DENV transmission risk has also expanded from tropical to subtropical regions due to the increasing range of its principal mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti. Focal outbreaks of dengue fever (dengue) in the state of Florida (FL) in the USA have increased since 2009. However, little is known about the competence of Ae. aegypti populations across different regions of FL to transmit DENVs. To understand the effects of DENV genotype and serotype variations on vector susceptibility and transmission potential in FL, we orally infected a colony of Ae. aegypti (Orlando/ORL) with low passage or laboratory DENV-1 through -4. Low passage DENVs were more infectious to and had higher transmission potential by ORL mosquitoes. We used these same DENVs to examine natural Ae. aegypti populations to determine whether spatial distributions correlated with differential vector competence. Vector competence across all DENV serotypes was greater for mosquitoes from areas with the highest dengue incidence in south FL compared to north FL. Vector competence for low passage DENVs was significantly higher, revealing that transmission risk is influenced by virus/vector combinations. These data support a targeted mosquito-plus-pathogen screening approach to more accurately estimate DENV transmission risk.

SUBMITTER: Stephenson CJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8622774 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundPertussis is a toxin-mediated respiratory illness caused by Bordetella pertussis that can result in severe complications and death, particularly in infants. Between 2008 and 2011, children less than 3 months old accounted for 83% of the pertussis deaths in the United States. Understanding the geographic disparities in the distribution of pertussis risk and identifying high risk geographic areas is necessary for guiding resource allocation and public health control strategies. Therefore, this study investigated geographic disparities and temporal changes in pertussis risk in Florida from 2010 to 2018. It also investigated socioeconomic and demographic predictors of the identified disparities.MethodsPertussis data covering the time period 2010-2018 were obtained from Florida HealthCHARTS web interface. Spatial patterns and temporal changes in geographic distribution of pertussis risk were assessed using county-level choropleth maps for the time periods 2010-2012, 2013-2015, 2016-2018 and 2010-2018. Tango's flexible spatial scan statistics were used to identify high-risk spatial clusters which were displayed in maps. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression was used to identify significant predictors of county-level risk. Residuals of the OLS model were assessed for model assumptions including spatial autocorrelation.ResultsCounty-level pertussis risk varied from 0 to 116.31 cases per 100,000 people during the study period. A total of 11 significant (p < 0.05) spatial clusters were identified with risk ratios ranging from 1.5 to 5.8. Geographic distribution remained relatively consistent over time with areas of high risk persisting in the western panhandle, northeastern coast, and along the western coast. Although county level pertussis risks generally increased from 2010-2012 to 2013-2015, risk tended to be lower during the 2016-2018 time period. Significant predictors of county-level pertussis risk were rurality, percentage of females, and median income. Counties with high pertussis risk tended to be rural (p = 0.021), those with high median incomes (p = 0.039), and those with high percentages of females (p < 0.001).ConclusionThere is evidence that geographic disparities exist and have persisted over time in Florida. This study highlights the application and importance of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology and spatial statistical/epidemiological tools in identifying areas of highest disease risk so as to guide resource allocation to reduce health disparities and improve health for all.

Project description:Dengue virus serotype 4 (DENV-4) circulated in Aedes aegypti in 2016 and 2017 in Florida in the absence of human index cases, compelling a full assessment of local mosquito vector competence and DENV-4 risk. To better understand DENV-4 transmission risk in Florida, we used an expanded suite of tests to measure and compare the vector competencies of both an established colony of A. aegypti (Orlando strain [ORL]) and a field-derived colony from Collier County, FL, in 2018 (COL) for a Haitian DENV-4 human field isolate and a DENV-4 laboratory strain (Philippines H241). We immediately noted that ORL saliva positivity was higher for the field than for laboratory DENV-4 strains. In a subsequent comparison with the recent COL mosquito colony, we also observed significantly higher midgut infection of COL and ORL by the Haitian DENV-4 field strain and a significantly higher saliva positivity rate for COL, although overall saliva virus titers were similar between the two. These data point to a potential midgut infection barrier for the DENV-4 laboratory strain for both mosquito colonies and indicate that the marked differences in transmission potential estimates hinge on virus-vector combinations. Our study highlights the importance of leveraging an expanded suite of testing methods with emphasis on utilizing local mosquito populations and field-relevant dengue virus serotypes and strains to accurately estimate transmission risk in a given setting. IMPORTANCE DENV-4 was found circulating in Florida (FL) A. aegypti mosquitoes in the absence of human index cases in the state (2016 to 2017). How DENV-4 was maintained locally is unclear, presenting a major gap in our understanding of DENV-4 public health risk. We determined the baseline arbovirus transmission potential of laboratory and field colonies of A. aegypti for both laboratory and field isolates of DENV-4. We observed a high transmission potential of field populations of A. aegypti and evidence of higher vertical transmission of the DENV-4 field isolate, providing clues to the possible mechanism of undetected DENV-4 maintenance in the state. Our findings also move the field forward in the development of best practices for evaluating arbovirus vector competence, with evidence that transmission potential estimates vary depending on the mosquito-virus combinations. These data emphasize the poor suitability of laboratory-established virus strains and the high relevance of field-derived mosquito populations in estimating transmission risk.

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Geographic Partitioning of Dengue Virus Transmission Risk in Florida.

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