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Machine Learning Model to Identify Sepsis Patients in the Emergency Department: Algorithm Development and Validation.

ABSTRACT: Accurate stratification of sepsis can effectively guide the triage of patient care and shared decision making in the emergency department (ED). However, previous research on sepsis identification models focused mainly on ICU patients, and discrepancies in model performance between the development and external validation datasets are rarely evaluated. The aim of our study was to develop and externally validate a machine learning model to stratify sepsis patients in the ED. We retrospectively collected clinical data from two geographically separate institutes that provided a different level of care at different time periods. The Sepsis-3 criteria were used as the reference standard in both datasets for identifying true sepsis cases. An eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was developed to stratify sepsis patients and the performance of the model was compared with traditional clinical sepsis tools; quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS). There were 8296 patients (1752 (21%) being septic) in the development and 1744 patients (506 (29%) being septic) in the external validation datasets. The mortality of septic patients in the development and validation datasets was 13.5% and 17%, respectively. In the internal validation, XGBoost achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.86, exceeding SIRS (0.68) and qSOFA (0.56). The performance of XGBoost deteriorated in the external validation (the AUROC of XGBoost, SIRS and qSOFA was 0.75, 0.57 and 0.66, respectively). Heterogeneity in patient characteristics, such as sepsis prevalence, severity, age, comorbidity and infection focus, could reduce model performance. Our model showed good discriminative capabilities for the identification of sepsis patients and outperformed the existing sepsis identification tools. Implementation of the ML model in the ED can facilitate timely sepsis identification and treatment. However, dataset discrepancies should be carefully evaluated before implementing the ML approach in clinical practice. This finding reinforces the necessity for future studies to perform external validation to ensure the generalisability of any developed ML approaches.

SUBMITTER: Lin PC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8623760 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ImportancePatient-reported symptom burden was recently found to be associated with emergency department use and unplanned hospitalization (ED/Hosp) in patients with head and neck cancer. It was hypothesized that symptom scores could be combined with administrative health data to accurately risk stratify patients.ObjectiveTo develop and validate a machine learning approach to predict future ED/Hosp in patients with head and neck cancer.Design, setting, and participantsThis was a population-based predictive modeling study of patients in Ontario, Canada, diagnosed with head and neck cancer from January 2007 through March 2018. All outpatient clinical encounters were identified. Edmonton Symptom Assessment System (ESAS) scores and clinical and demographic factors were abstracted. Training and test cohorts were randomly generated in a 4:1 ratio. Various machine learning algorithms were explored, including (1) logistic regression using a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, (2) random forest, (3) gradient boosting machine, (4) k-nearest neighbors, and (5) an artificial neural network. Data analysis was performed from September 2021 to January 2022.Main outcomes and measuresThe main outcome was any 14-day ED/Hosp event following symptom assessment. The performance of each model was assessed on the test cohort using the area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve and calibration plots. Shapley values were used to identify the variables with greatest contribution to the model.ResultsThe training cohort consisted of 9409 patients (mean [SD] age, 63.3 [10.9] years) undergoing 59 089 symptom assessments (80%). The remaining 2352 patients (mean [SD] age, 63.3 [11] years) and 14 193 symptom assessments were set aside as the test cohort (20%). Several models had high predictive accuracy, particularly the gradient boosting machine (validation AUROC, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.78-0.81]). A Youden-based cutoff corresponded to a validation sensitivity of 0.77 and specificity of 0.66. Patient-reported symptom scores were consistently identified as being the most predictive features within models. A second model built only with symptom severity data had an AUROC of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.70-0.74).Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, machine learning approaches predicted with a high degree of accuracy ED/Hosp in patients with head and neck cancer. These tools could be used to accurately risk stratify patients and may help direct targeted intervention.

Project description:BackgroundA substantial proportion of attendances to ophthalmic emergency departments are for non-urgent presentations. We developed and evaluated a machine learning system (DemDx Ophthalmology Triage System: DOTS) to optimise triage, with the aim of reducing inappropriate emergency attendances and streamlining case referral when necessary.MethodsDOTS was built using retrospective tabular data from 11,315 attendances between July 1st, 2021, to June 15th, 2022 at Moorfields Eye Hospital Emergency Department (MEH) in London, UK. Demographic and clinical features were used as inputs and a triage recommendation was given ("see immediately", "see within a week", or "see electively"). DOTS was validated temporally and compared with triage nurses' performance (1269 attendances at MEH) and validated externally (761 attendances at the Federal University of Minas Gerais - UFMG, Brazil). It was also tested for biases and robustness to variations in disease incidences. All attendances from patients aged at least 18 years with at least one confirmed diagnosis were included in the study.FindingsFor identifying ophthalmic emergency attendances, on temporal validation, DOTS had a sensitivity of 94.5% [95% CI 92.3-96.1] and a specificity of 42.4% [38.8-46.1]. For comparison within the same dataset, triage nurses had a sensitivity of 96.4% [94.5-97.7] and a specificity of 25.1% [22.0-28.5]. On external validation at UFMG, DOTS had a sensitivity of 95.2% [92.5-97.0] and a specificity of 32.2% [27.4-37.0]. In simulated scenarios with varying disease incidences, the sensitivity was ≥92.2% and the specificity was ≥36.8%. No differences in sensitivity were found in subgroups of index of multiple deprivation, but the specificity was higher for Q2 when compared to Q4 (Q4 is less deprived than Q2).InterpretationAt MEH, DOTS had similar sensitivity to triage nurses in determining attendance priority; however, with a specificity of 17.3% higher, DOTS resulted in lower rates of patients triaged to be seen immediately at emergency. DOTS showed consistent performance in temporal and external validation, in social-demographic subgroups and was robust to varying relative disease incidences. Further trials are necessary to validate these findings. This system will be prospectively evaluated, considering human-computer interaction, in a clinical trial.FundingThe Artificial Intelligence in Health and Care Award (AI_AWARD01671) of the NHS AI Lab under National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) and the Accelerated Access Collaborative (AAC).

Project description:BackgroundPostoperative sepsis is one of the main causes of mortality after liver transplantation (LT). Our study aimed to develop and validate a predictive model for postoperative sepsis within 7 d in LT recipients using machine learning (ML) technology.MethodsData of 786 patients received LT from January 2015 to January 2020 was retrospectively extracted from the big data platform of Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University. Seven ML models were developed to predict postoperative sepsis. The area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and f1-score were evaluated as the model performances. The model with the best performance was validated in an independent dataset involving 118 adult LT cases from February 2020 to April 2021. The postoperative sepsis-associated outcomes were also explored in the study.ResultsAfter excluding 109 patients according to the exclusion criteria, 677 patients underwent LT were finally included in the analysis. Among them, 216 (31.9%) were diagnosed with sepsis after LT, which were related to more perioperative complications, increased postoperative hospital stay and mortality after LT (all p < .05). Our results revealed that a larger volume of red blood cell infusion, ascitic removal, blood loss and gastric drainage, less volume of crystalloid infusion and urine, longer anesthesia time, higher level of preoperative TBIL were the top 8 important variables contributing to the prediction of post-LT sepsis. The Random Forest Classifier (RF) model showed the best overall performance to predict sepsis after LT among the seven ML models developed in the study, with an AUC of 0.731, an accuracy of 71.6%, the sensitivity of 62.1%, and specificity of 76.1% in the internal validation set, and a comparable AUC of 0.755 in the external validation set.ConclusionsOur study enrolled eight pre- and intra-operative variables to develop an RF-based predictive model of post-LT sepsis to assist clinical decision-making procedure.

Project description:IntroductionTimely diagnosis of patients affected by an emerging infectious disease plays a crucial role in treating patients and avoiding disease spread. In prior research, we developed an approach by using machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict serious acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection based on clinical features of patients visiting an emergency department (ED) during the early coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In this study, we aimed to externally validate this approach within a distinct ED population.MethodsTo create our training/validation cohort (model development) we collected data retrospectively from suspected COVID-19 patients at a US ED from February 23-May 12, 2020. Another dataset was collected as an external validation (testing) cohort from an ED in another country from May 12-June 15, 2021. Clinical features including patient demographics and triage information were used to train and test the models. The primary outcome was the confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19, defined as a positive reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test result for SARS-CoV-2. We employed three different ML algorithms, including gradient boosting, random forest, and extra trees classifiers, to construct the predictive model. The predictive performances were evaluated with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in the testing cohort.ResultsIn total, 580 and 946 ED patients were included in the training and testing cohorts, respectively. Of them, 98 (16.9%) and 180 (19.0%) were diagnosed with COVID-19. All the constructed ML models showed acceptable discrimination, as indicated by the AUC. Among them, random forest (0.785, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.747-0.822) performed better than gradient boosting (0.774, 95% CI 0.739-0.811) and extra trees classifier (0.72, 95% CI 0.677-0.762). There was no significant difference between the constructed models.ConclusionOur study validates the use of ML for predicting COVID-19 in the ED and demonstrates its potential for predicting emerging infectious diseases based on models built by clinical features with temporal and spatial heterogeneity. This approach holds promise for scenarios where effective diagnostic tools for an emerging infectious disease may be lacking in the future.

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Machine Learning Model to Identify Sepsis Patients in the Emergency Department: Algorithm Development and Validation.

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