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Polling India via regression and post-stratification of non-probability online samples.

ABSTRACT: Recent technological advances have facilitated the collection of large-scale administrative data and the online surveying of the Indian population. Building on these we propose a strategy for more robust, frequent and transparent projections of the Indian vote during the campaign. We execute a modified MrP model of Indian vote preferences that proposes innovations to each of its three core components: stratification frame, training data, and a learner. For the post-stratification frame we propose a novel Data Integration approach that allows the simultaneous estimation of counts from multiple complementary sources, such as census tables and auxiliary surveys. For the training data we assemble panels of respondents from two unorthodox online populations: Amazon Mechanical Turks workers and Facebook users. And as a modeling tool, we replace the Bayesian multilevel regression learner with Random Forests. Our 2019 pre-election forecasts for the two largest Lok Sahba coalitions were very close to actual outcomes: we predicted 41.8% for the NDA, against an observed value of 45.0% and 30.8% for the UPA against an observed vote share of just under 31.3%. Our uniform-swing seat projection outperforms other pollsters-we had the lowest absolute error of 89 seats (along with a poll from 'Jan Ki Baat'); the lowest error on the NDA-UPA lead (a mere 8 seats), and we are the only pollster that can capture real-time preference shifts due to salient campaign events.

SUBMITTER: Cerina R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8629219 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundIn 2014, the National Institute of Health Pain Consortium's research task force (RTF) on research standards for chronic low back pain (CLBP) proposed the Impact Stratification Score (ISS) as a patient-reported outcome measure that could stratify patients by the impact CLBP has on their lives. This work compares three newly developed ISS-based classifications to the RTF's original to provide an optimal recommendation.MethodsThe online sample included 1226 individuals from Amazon's Mechanical Turk who indicated having non-specific CLBP, average age of 40, 49% female, and 67% White. Participants completed the PROMIS-29 v2.1 profile survey that contains the 9 ISS items as well the Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire (RMDQ) and Graded Chronic Pain Scale (GCPS). Other items included high-impact chronic pain; not working due to health problems; overall health; and number of healthcare visits for back pain in the past 6 months. Three new classifications were created using quartiles (Classification 2), latent profile analysis (Classification 3), and one modeled after the GCPS (Classification 4). Classifications were subsequently compared to the RTF-proposed classification (Classification 1) on several concurrent and prognostic criteria.ResultsClassification 1 had three CLBP severity groups, four in Classification 2, three in Classification 3, and four in Classification 4. All novel classifications improved upon the original. Classification 2 performed best at minimizing the classification of those with negative outcomes into the lowest severity groups at baseline (e.g., 11% with RMDQ ≥ 7) and 6 months (e.g., 8.2% had fair/poor health). Classification 4 performed best at maximizing classification of those with negative outcomes into the most severe group concurrently (e.g., 100% had GCPS grade ≥ 2) and at 6 months (e.g., 100% with RMDQ ≥ 7).ConclusionsWe developed three ISS-based classification schemes and tested them against several outcomes. All three improved upon the original scheme. While appearing more optimal than other classifications in the lowest severity groups, Classification 2 presents some considerations and limitations. Given that Classification 4 was an improvement at the lowest end of severity and was the best at the highest end, it is our tentative recommendation that this approach be adopted to classify individuals with non-specific CLBP.

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Polling India via regression and post-stratification of non-probability online samples.

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