Physical Distancing, Violence, and Crime in US Cities during the Coronavirus Pandemic.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Schleimer JP
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8629337 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Unemployment and violence both increased during the coronavirus pandemic in the United States (US), but no studies to our knowledge have examined their association. Using data for 16 US cities from January 2018 to July 2020, we estimated the association between acute changes in unemployment during the coronavirus pandemic and violent and acquisitive crime. We used negative binomial regression models and parametric g-computation to estimate average differences in crime incidents if the highest and lowest levels of unemployment observed in each city had been sustained across the exposure period (March-July 2020), compared with observed unemployment in each city-month. During the pandemic, the percentage of the adult population who were unemployed was 8.1 percentage points higher than expected, on average. Increases in unemployment were associated with increases in firearm violence and homicide. For example, we estimated an average increase of 3.3 firearm violence incidents (95% CI: - 0.2, 6.7) and 2.0 homicides (95% CI: - 0.2, 3.9) per city-month from March to July 2020 if all cities experienced their highest versus observed level of unemployment. There was no association between unemployment and aggravated assault or any acquisitive crime. Findings suggest that the sharp rise in unemployment during the pandemic may have contributed to increases in firearm violence and homicide, but not other crime. Additional research is needed on mechanisms of association, generalizability, and modifying factors.
| S-EPMC8793820 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Research summaryPriorresearch has produced varied results regarding the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on crime rates, depending on the offenses and time periods under investigation. The current study of weekly offense rates in large U.S. cities is based on a longer time period, a greater number of offenses than prior research, and a varying number of cities for each offense (max = 28, min = 13, md = 20). We find that weekly property crime and drug offense rates, averaged across the cities, fell during the pandemic. An exception is motor vehicle theft, which trended upward after pandemic-related population restrictions were instituted in March 2020. Robbery rates also declined immediately after the pandemic began. Average weekly homicide, aggravated assault, and gun assault rates did not exhibit statistically significant increases after March. Beginning in June 2020, however, significant increases in these offenses were detected, followed by declines in the late summer and fall. Fixed-effects regression analyses disclose significant decreases in aggravated assault, robbery, and larceny rates associated with reduced residential mobility during the pandemic. These results support the routine activity hypothesis that the dispersion of activity away from households increases crime rates. The results for the other offenses are less supportive.Policy implicationsQuarantines and lockdowns, although necessary to reduce contagious illness, are not desirable crime-control devices. An object lesson of the coronavirus pandemic is to redouble effective crime reduction strategies and improve police-community relations without confining people to their homes.
| S-EPMC8652504 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPhysical distancing among healthcare workers (HCWs) is an essential strategy in preventing HCW-to-HCWs transmission of severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).ObjectiveTo understand barriers to physical distancing among HCWs on an inpatient unit and identify strategies for improvement.DesignQualitative study including observations and semistructured interviews conducted over 3 months.SettingA non-COVID-19 adult general medical unit in an academic tertiary-care hospital.ParticipantsHCWs based on the unit.MethodsWe performed a qualitative study in which we (1) observed HCW activities and proximity to each other on the unit during weekday shifts July-October 2020 and (2) conducted semi-structured interviews of HCWs to understand their experiences with and perspectives of physical distancing in the hospital. Qualitative data were coded based on a human-factors engineering model.ResultsWe completed 25 hours of observations and 20 HCW interviews. High-risk interactions often occurred during handoffs of care at shift changes and patient rounds, when HCWs gathered regularly in close proximity for at least 15 minutes. Identified barriers included spacing and availability of computers, the need to communicate confidential patient information, and the desire to maintain relationships at work.ConclusionsPhysical distancing can be improved in hospitals by restructuring computer workstations, work rooms, and break rooms; applying visible cognitive aids; adapting shift times; and supporting rounds and meetings with virtual conferencing. Additional strategies to promote staff adherence to physical distancing include rewarding positive behaviors, having peer leaders model physical distancing, and encouraging additional safe avenues for social connection at a safe distance.
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Project description:The dataset was collected using the survey method with an electronic questionnaire. The use of electronic questionnaires is intended to reach many respondents during the physical distancing caused by the COVID-19 global pandemic. The instrument used in data collection was adapted from Alinovi, Mane, and Romano (2008). The instrument was designed anonymously to ensure the privacy and independence of respondents in giving their responses. Data that is captured includes several categories either nominal, ordinal, or interval refers to the information that needs to be captured. Determination of the type of data also refers to the recommendation of previous research. The data was collected using the Google form platform. Questionnaire distribution was conducted on April 12-20, 2020, and 1096 responses were collected. The date is two weeks after the government call of the Republic of Indonesia to carry out Physical Distancing to anticipate the COVID-19 Global Pandemic. The entire data is then screened and filtered so that it only leaves the data with respondents who are domiciled in Medan City. After filtered, there is remained 846 data that is ready for analysis. In order to make more informative data, researchers conducted a descriptive statistical analysis, ANOVA, Kruskal Wallis, and the Spearman's rank correlation. Analysis of the data provides valuable information related to the interrelation of each item and the pattern of economic resilience that the urban city community has as a data of the COVID-19 global pandemic. Researchers can then further analyzed the data with more advanced analytical tools to produce more valuable information in the development of science and in developing strategic policies related to anticipating the economic vulnerability of the household due to the global pandemic disaster.
| S-EPMC7381413 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We study partisan differences in Americans' response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Political leaders and media outlets on the right and left have sent divergent messages about the severity of the crisis, which could impact the extent to which Republicans and Democrats engage in social distancing and other efforts to reduce disease transmission. We develop a simple model of a pandemic response with heterogeneous agents that clarifies the causes and consequences of heterogeneous responses. We use location data from a large sample of smartphones to show that areas with more Republicans engaged in less social distancing, controlling for other factors including public policies, population density, and local COVID cases and deaths. We then present new survey evidence of significant gaps at the individual level between Republicans and Democrats in self-reported social distancing, beliefs about personal COVID risk, and beliefs about the future severity of the pandemic.
| S-EPMC7409721 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Policymakers need decision tools to determine when to use physical distancing interventions to maximize the control of COVID-19 while minimizing the economic and social costs of these interventions. We develop a pragmatic decision tool to characterize adaptive policies that combine real-time surveillance data with clear decision rules to guide when to trigger, continue, or stop physical distancing interventions during the current pandemic. In model-based experiments, we find that adaptive policies characterized by our proposed approach prevent more deaths and require a shorter overall duration of physical distancing than alternative physical distancing policies. Our proposed approach can readily be extended to more complex models and interventions.
| S-EPMC7302307 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Governments across the world have implemented restrictive policies to slow the spread of COVID-19. Recommended face mask use has been a controversially discussed policy, among others, due to potential adverse effects on physical distancing. Using a randomized field experiment (N = 300), we show that individuals kept a significantly larger distance from someone wearing a face mask than from an unmasked person during the early days of the pandemic. According to an additional survey experiment (N = 456) conducted at the time, masked individuals were not perceived as being more infectious than unmasked ones, but they were believed to prefer more distancing. This result suggests that wearing a mask served as a social signal that led others to increase the distance they kept. Our findings provide evidence against the claim that mask use creates a false sense of security that would negatively affect physical distancing. Furthermore, our results suggest that behavior has informational content that may be affected by policies. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40881-021-00108-6.
| S-EPMC8590132 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In response to the pandemic in early 2020, cities implemented states of emergency and stay at home orders to reduce virus spread. Changes in social dynamics due to local restrictions impacted human behavior and led to a shift in crime dynamics. We analyze shifts in crime types by comparing crimes before the implementation of stay at home orders and the time period shortly after these orders were put in place across three cities. We find consistent changes across Chicago, Baltimore, and Baton Rouge with significant declines in total crimes during the time period immediately following stay at home orders. The starkest differences occurred in Chicago, but in all three cities the crime types contributing to these declines were related to property crime and statutory crime rather than interpersonal crimes.
| S-EPMC8016314 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Health varies by U.S. region of residence. Despite regional heterogeneity in the outbreak of COVID-19, regional differences in physical distancing behaviors over time are relatively unknown. This study examines regional variation in physical distancing trends during the COVID-19 pandemic and investigates variation by race and socioeconomic status (SES) within regions. Data from the 2015-2019 five-year American Community Survey were matched with anonymized location pings data from over 20 million mobile devices (SafeGraph, Inc.) at the Census block group level. We visually present trends in the stay-at-home proportion by Census region, race, and SES throughout 2020 and conduct regression analyses to examine these patterns. From March to December, the stay-at-home proportion was highest in the Northeast (0.25 in March to 0.35 in December) and lowest in the South (0.24 to 0.30). Across all regions, the stay-at-home proportion was higher in block groups with a higher percentage of Blacks, as Blacks disproportionately live in urban areas where stay-at-home rates were higher (0.009 [CI: 0.008, 0.009]). In the South, West, and Midwest, higher-SES block groups stayed home at the lowest rates pre-pandemic; however, this trend reversed throughout March before converging in the months following. In the Northeast, lower-SES block groups stayed home at comparable rates to higher-SES block groups during the height of the pandemic but diverged in the months following. Differences in physical distancing behaviors exist across U.S. regions, with a pronounced Southern and rural disadvantage. Results can be used to guide reopening and COVID-19 mitigation plans.
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Project description:Crime is a major threat to society's well-being but lacks a statistical characterization that could lead to uncovering some of its underlying mechanisms. Evidence of nonlinear scaling of urban indicators in cities, such as wages and serious crime, has motivated the understanding of cities as complex systems-a perspective that offers insights into resources limits and sustainability, but that usually neglects details of the indicators themselves. Notably, since the nineteenth century, criminal activities have been known to occur unevenly within a city; crime concentrates in such way that most of the offenses take place in few regions of the city. Though confirmed by different studies, this concentration lacks broad analyses on its characteristics, which hinders not only the comprehension of crime dynamics but also the proposal of sounding counter-measures. Here, we developed a framework to characterize crime concentration which divides cities into regions with the same population size. We used disaggregated criminal data from 25 locations in the U.S. and the U.K., spanning from 2 to 15 years of longitudinal data. Our results confirmed that crime concentrates regardless of city and revealed that the level of concentration does not scale with city size. We found that the distribution of crime in a city can be approximated by a power-law distribution with exponent α that depends on the type of crime. In particular, our results showed that thefts tend to concentrate more than robberies, and robberies more than burglaries. Though criminal activities present regularities of concentration, we found that criminal ranks have the tendency to change continuously over time-features that support the perspective of crime as a complex system and demand analyses and evolving urban policies covering the city as a whole.
| S-EPMC5553724 | biostudies-literature