Dataset Information

Inferring population HIV incidence trends from surveillance data of recent HIV infection among HIV testing clients.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Measuring recent HIV infections from routine surveillance systems could allow timely and granular monitoring of HIV incidence patterns. We evaluated the relationship of two recent infection indicators with alternative denominators to true incidence patterns.

Methods

We used a mathematical model of HIV testing behaviours, calibrated to population-based surveys and HIV testing services programme data, to estimate the number of recent infections diagnosed annually from 2010 to 2019 in Côte d'Ivoire, Malawi, and Mozambique. We compared two different denominators to interpret recency data: those at risk of HIV acquisition (HIV-negative tests and recent infections) and all people testing HIV positive. Sex and age-specific longitudinal trends in both interpretations were then compared with modelled trends in HIV incidence, testing efforts and HIV positivity among HIV testing services clients.

Results

Over 2010-2019, the annual proportion of the eligible population tested increased in all countries, while positivity decreased. The proportion of recent infections among those at risk of HIV acquisition decreased, similar to declines in HIV incidence among adults (≥15 years old). Conversely, the proportion of recent infections among HIV-positive tests increased. The female-to-male ratio of the proportion testing recent among those at risk was closer to 1 than the true incidence sex ratio.

Conclusion

The proportion of recent infections among those at risk of HIV acquisition is more indicative of HIV incidence than the proportion among HIV-positive tests. However, interpreting the observed patterns as surrogate measures for incidence patterns may still be confounded by different HIV testing rates between population groups or over time.

SUBMITTER: Godin A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8631145 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:IntroductionA recent infection testing algorithm (RITA) that can distinguish recent from long-standing HIV infection can be applied to nationally representative population-based surveys to characterize and identify risk factors for recent infection in a country.Materials and methodsWe applied a RITA using the Limiting Antigen Avidity Enzyme Immunoassay (LAg) on stored HIV-positive samples from the 2007 Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey. The case definition for recent infection included testing recent on LAg and having no evidence of antiretroviral therapy use. Multivariate analysis was conducted to determine factors associated with recent and long-standing infection compared to HIV-uninfected persons. All estimates were weighted to adjust for sampling probability and nonresponse.ResultsOf 1,025 HIV-antibody-positive specimens, 64 (6.2%) met the case definition for recent infection and 961 (93.8%) met the case definition for long-standing infection. Compared to HIV-uninfected individuals, factors associated with higher adjusted odds of recent infection were living in Nairobi (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 11.37; confidence interval [CI] 2.64-48.87) and Nyanza (AOR 4.55; CI 1.39-14.89) provinces compared to Western province; being widowed (AOR 8.04; CI 1.42-45.50) or currently married (AOR 6.42; CI 1.55-26.58) compared to being never married; having had ≥ 2 sexual partners in the last year (AOR 2.86; CI 1.51-5.41); not using a condom at last sex in the past year (AOR 1.61; CI 1.34-1.93); reporting a sexually transmitted infection (STI) diagnosis or symptoms of STI in the past year (AOR 1.97; CI 1.05-8.37); and being aged <30 years with: 1) HSV-2 infection (AOR 8.84; CI 2.62-29.85), 2) male genital ulcer disease (AOR 8.70; CI 2.36-32.08), or 3) lack of male circumcision (AOR 17.83; CI 2.19-144.90). Compared to HIV-uninfected persons, factors associated with higher adjusted odds of long-standing infection included living in Coast (AOR 1.55; CI 1.04-2.32) and Nyanza (AOR 2.33; CI 1.67-3.25) provinces compared to Western province; being separated/divorced (AOR 1.87; CI 1.16-3.01) or widowed (AOR 2.83; CI 1.78-4.45) compared to being never married; having ever used a condom (AOR 1.61; CI 1.34-1.93); and having a STI diagnosis or symptoms of STI in the past year (AOR 1.89; CI 1.20-2.97). Factors associated with lower adjusted odds of long-standing infection included using a condom at last sex in the past year (AOR 0.47; CI 0.36-0.61), having no HSV2-infection at aged <30 years (AOR 0.38; CI 0.20-0.75) or being an uncircumcised male aged <30 years (AOR 0.30; CI 0.15-0.61).ConclusionWe identified factors associated with increased risk of recent and longstanding HIV infection using a RITA applied to blood specimens collected in a nationally representative survey. Though some false-recent cases may have been present in our sample, the correlates of recent infection identified were epidemiologically and biologically plausible. These methods can be used as a model for other countries with similar epidemics to inform targeted combination prevention strategies aimed to drastically decrease new infections in the population.

Project description:BackgroundThe feasibility of reducing the population-level incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection by increasing community coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and male circumcision is unknown.MethodsWe conducted a pair-matched, community-randomized trial in 30 rural or periurban communities in Botswana from 2013 to 2018. Participants in 15 villages in the intervention group received HIV testing and counseling, linkage to care, ART (started at a higher CD4 count than in standard care), and increased access to male circumcision services. The standard-care group also consisted of 15 villages. Universal ART became available in both groups in mid-2016. We enrolled a random sample of participants from approximately 20% of households in each community and measured the incidence of HIV infection through testing performed approximately once per year. The prespecified primary analysis was a permutation test of HIV incidence ratios. Pair-stratified Cox models were used to calculate 95% confidence intervals.ResultsOf 12,610 enrollees (81% of eligible household members), 29% were HIV-positive. Of the 8974 HIV-negative persons (4487 per group), 95% were retested for HIV infection over a median of 29 months. A total of 57 participants in the intervention group and 90 participants in the standard-care group acquired HIV infection (annualized HIV incidence, 0.59% and 0.92%, respectively). The unadjusted HIV incidence ratio in the intervention group as compared with the standard-care group was 0.69 (P = 0.09) by permutation test (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.46 to 0.90 by pair-stratified Cox model). An end-of-trial survey in six communities (three per group) showed a significantly greater increase in the percentage of HIV-positive participants with an HIV-1 RNA level of 400 copies per milliliter or less in the intervention group (18 percentage points, from 70% to 88%) than in the standard-care group (8 percentage points, from 75% to 83%) (relative risk, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.16). The percentage of men who underwent circumcision increased by 10 percentage points in the intervention group and 2 percentage points in the standard-care group (relative risk, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.17 to 1.35).ConclusionsExpanded HIV testing, linkage to care, and ART coverage were associated with increased population viral suppression. (Funded by the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief and others; Ya Tsie ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01965470.).